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- Chairman, President and CEO
The McGraw-Hill Companies
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- This presentation includes certain forward-looking statements about the
Company’s businesses and our prospects, new products, sales, expenses,
tax rates, cash flows, prepublication investments and operating and
capital requirements. Such forward-looking statements include, but are
not limited to: the strength and sustainability of the U.S. and global
economy; the duration and depth of the current recession; Educational
Publishing’s level of success in 2009 adoptions and in open territories
and enrollment and demographic trends; the level of educational funding;
the strength of School Education including the testing market, Higher
Education, Professional and International publishing markets and the
impact of technology on them; the level of interest rates and the
strength of the economy, profit levels and the capital markets in the
U.S. and abroad; the level of success of new product development and
global expansion and strength of domestic and international markets; the
demand and market for debt ratings, including collateralized debt
obligations (“CDO”), residential and commercial mortgage and
asset-backed securities and related asset classes; the continued
difficulties in the credit markets and their impact on Standard &
Poor’s and the economy in general; the regulatory environment affecting
Standard & Poor’s; the level of merger and acquisition activity in
the U.S. and abroad; the strength of the domestic and international
advertising markets; the strength and the performance of the domestic
and international automotive markets; the volatility of the energy
marketplace; the contract value of public works, manufacturing and
single-family unit construction; the level of political advertising; and
the level of future cash flow, debt levels, manufacturing expenses,
distribution expenses, prepublication, amortization and depreciation
expense, income tax rates, capital, technology, restructuring charges
and other expenditures and prepublication cost investment.
- Actual results may differ materially from those in any forward-looking
statements because any such statements involve risks and uncertainties
and are subject to change based upon various important factors,
including, but not limited to, worldwide economic, financial, political
and regulatory conditions; currency and foreign exchange volatility; the
health of debt and equity markets, including interest rates, credit
quality and spreads, the level of liquidity, future debt issuances
including residential and commercial mortgage-backed securities and CDOs
backed by residential mortgages and related asset classes; the
implementation of an expanded regulatory scheme affecting Standard &
Poor’s ratings and services; the level of funding in the education market
(both domestically and internationally); the pace of recovery in
advertising; continued investment by the construction, automotive,
computer and aviation industries; the successful marketing of new
products, and the effect of competitive products and pricing.
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- 2009 priorities: Preserving liquidity and maintaining a strong balance
sheet
- Debt: Low and mostly long term
- First major repayment not due until 2012
- Dividend: Increased in 2009
- 36 consecutive years of dividend increases
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- Continue to return cash to shareholders through dividends and share
repurchases
- $9.1 billion returned to shareholders since 1996
- 2009 free cash flow: Projecting $430 million to $450 million after
investments, dividend
- Comparable to 2008 level—despite projection for lower operating results
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- Education: Targeted for more than $100 billion in federal stimulus
funding
- Helping restore K-12 and higher education budget cuts and Title I and
special education programs
- Financial Services: Government actions calming financial markets
- Sentiment changing in credit markets as spreads tighten
- Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF) and similar programs
stimulating activity
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- Growth in U.S. college market
- Expect 3% to 4% growth in college and university market
- Enrollments are growing
- El-hi market under pressure
- Could see 15% to 20% decline in el-hi market
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- Growing range of digital offerings:
- McGraw-Hill Connect, a homework management series with online resources
- ALEKS, a unique math tutorial program
- LearnSmart, new course-specific online instructional sites
- “Experiential” products
- Anatomy and Physiology Revealed enables virtual dissections in human
anatomy classes
- SimNet enables allied health students to interact with virtual
patients in situations they will face in the future
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- Targeted funds for U.S. higher education:
- $17.1 billion for Pell Grant awards
- $200 million for work-study programs
- $2,500 tax credit for tuition and related expenses, including course
materials
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- New funding starting April 1:
- $6.1 billion for IDEA, the special education program
- $5.0 billion for Title I, programs for disadvantaged students
- $32.5 billion of the State Fiscal Stabilization Fund made available to
state governors
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- More funds available later in 2009, including:
- Another $6.1 billion for IDEA
- Another $5.0 billion for Title I
- $16.1 billion from the State Fiscal Stabilization Fund
- $3.0 billion for school improvements under Title 1, Part A
- $5.0 billion from a “Race to the Top” Fund from the Secretary of
Education
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- Tracking the flow of funds down to the local school district level is
challenging
- McGraw-Hill is well positioned to benefit when spending decisions are
made
- Impossible to quantify impact of stimulus funding on the education
market
- Our current projections do not reflect any benefit from the federal
funding
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- Here’s what we know so far:
- Some of these funds will be used to retain teachers, as well as for a
number of other purposes
- Many of our customers anticipate using some of their stimulus dollars
to buy instructional materials
- While these are encouraging signs, we can’t base our forecast on
anecdotal evidence
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- El-hi market down 13.3% through March 2009
- 2009 state new adoption market forecast:
$550 million to $600 million
- Florida and California districts postponing 2009 purchases
- Confident our School Education Group can still capture 30% of the 2009
state new adoption market
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- 2010 state new adoption calendar could top $1 billion
- Reading and literature in Texas and K-12 math in Florida
- 2011: State new adoption calendar could be even larger
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- For the el-hi market:
- Multimedia packages
- Digital components are integrated into virtually every el-hi
instructional program
- Interactive, online student editions are growing rapidly
- Content-specific software for interactive whiteboards attracts teachers
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- For the college market:
- More than 95% of our college textbooks—and all of the current frontlist
titles—can be downloaded as e-books through CourseSmart
- Steady growth in faculty and student interest
in e-books
- Computers continue to be the preferred e-book vehicle for college texts
- Exploring potential for materials offered via e-readers, MP3 players,
and other devices
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- For professional markets:
- More than 3,000 digital titles for sale through Amazon’s Kindle, and
many titles formatted for other e-readers
- Digital downloads to iPods, iPhones, and other hand-held devices for a
variety of content
- Growing lineup of online, subscription-based products for medicine,
engineering, and science
- Providing information anytime, anywhere is enriching and improving
learning
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- Before the benefits of federal stimulus package:
- 15% to 20% decline in 2009 for el-hi market
- 3% to 4% growth in 2009 for U.S. college market
- For the segment in 2009:
- 7% to 8% decline in revenue
- 300 to 400 basis point decline in margin, excluding 2008 restructuring
charges
- Implies low single-digit decline in expenses and an operating margin of
9% to 10%
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- Timing of market recovery
- Strength of market recovery
- Resilience of the portfolio
- Regulatory outlook
- Legal situation
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- Transaction revenue
- 1Q 2009: Declined 18.3%
- 2009: Expect 10% to 12% decline
- Forecast based on:
- Easier comparisons later in the year
- A pick up in the market as various f ederal stimulus packages for
credit markets take hold
- The economy improving later this year
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- The recovery will be uneven
- Investment-grade corporate issuance will lead the way
- Structured finance market will take longer to recover
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- New issue volume typically slows in the first month of each quarter
- Normally picks up in second or third month of each quarter
- Beginning to see the impact of federal stimulus in the asset-backed
securities market
- TALF program used auto lease, student loans and equipment asset-backed
securities as collateral
- Pipeline for issuance of TALF-eligible loans in June looks very good
- New issuance peaked in 2Q 2008, so 2009 comparisons for this period will
be challenging
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- Non-transaction revenue is resilient: Expect only a slight decline in
2009
- 1Q 2009: Off 3.8% and accounted for 72% of ratings’ total revenue
- Decrease due to foreign currency and a year-over-year decline in fees
from cancelled transactions
- 2Q 2009: Year-over-year decline in fees for cancelled transactions
expected to peak
- Modest price increases a factor in durability of revenue
- 12.1% increase in worldwide corporate issuance in the first four months
this year versus 2008
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- Anticipate growth of non-ratings business
- 1Q 2009: Produced 36% of the segment’s revenue
- 2009: Expect single-digit revenue growth
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- Capital IQ continues to make progress
- Index business proving resilience despite decline in assets under
management in exchange-traded funds based on S&P indices
- Underscores diverse revenue stream S&P has successfully created for
index services
- Sales of data
- Increases in license fees for mutual funds
- Growth of over-the-counter derivatives
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- S&P continues to launch new products and services
- S&P GSCI indices key to 22 new exchange-traded commodity products
for trading on Deutsche Bourse
- In April, expanded index family with S&P Forward Interest Rate
Arbitrage Index Series
- Allows investors to compare the effectiveness of interest-rate based
investment strategies
- Assets under management in exchange-traded funds based on S&P
indices were $173 billion at end of April
- 18% decline year-over-year, but up 9.1% sequentially since end of March
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- Europeans recently created a new system for registration and regulation
of rating agencies
- CESR (Committee of European Regulators) will issue guidelines which may
take effect in early 2010
- More will be required of S&P and other credit rating agencies
- Regulation is manageable and creates a level playing field
- In U.S., more work to be done with the SEC and Congress
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- European regulatory actions will lead to a more globally consistent
approach to ratings
- Six key requirements:
- Transparency
- Prevention of conflicts
- Quality
- Breadth of coverage
- Market scrutiny
- Investor choice
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- In an increasingly global marketplace, sound regulatory oversight will
contribute to restoring investor confidence in ratings and capital
markets
- We continue to work toward that goal
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- Working with the New York University Stern School of Business to develop
the curriculum
- American College Testing will independently administer and score the
certification exams
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- Two levels to certification program:
- Knowledge of capital markets and S&P’s criteria and methodology for
credit analysis
- Requires specific asset class analysis
- All S&P analysts must pass both levels to act as a primary credit
analyst and vote in a ratings committee
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- Key provisions for NRSROs:
- Require NRSROs to issue and maintain ratings on a single scale
- S&P already uses single ratings scale across major asset classes
- Preserve critical provision of existing law prohibiting regulation of
substance (analysis, procedures, methodologies) of how NRSROs determine
ratings
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- Oral arguments in connection with motions to dismiss pending cases will
be scheduled over the next several months
- First oral argument on a motion to dismiss the Oddo Lawsuit was held on
May 13
- Can’t predict when judge will announce a decision
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- Three broad categories of law suits:
- Underwriter claims based on Securities Act of 1933
- MHP has already been removed from three lawsuits
- McGraw-Hill shareholder claims or “stock drop” suits
- Motion for dismissal has been filed
- State law claims
- Cases assert fraud claims
- Continue to assess the legal risk as low
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- For 2009:
- Slight decline in revenue
- Margin decline of 250 to 300 basis points, excluding 2008 restructuring
charges
- Low single-digit growth in expenses
- Implied operating margin of approximately 38%
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- Continued strength in global energy markets
- Platts’ real-time information and price assessments help fuel energy
markets in oil, natural gas, and power
- Adding subscribers here and abroad
- Print and broadcast advertising still soft
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- Ad pages down 38.5% through April as measured by Publishers Information
Bureau
- 14 issues in 2009 versus 16 in 2008
- Readership is solid
- Maintaining average annualized subscription price
- No problem delivering our rate base of 900,000
- Award-winning editorial
- 2009 awards include three from Society of American Business Editors and
Writers and Overseas Press Club award for best business reporting
abroad
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- Problems in the automobile industry affect J.D. Power and Associates and
Broadcasting
- Local, national time sales soft at TV stations
- 2008’s solid performance in political advertising makes 2009
comparisons more challenging
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- Revenue to decline by 5% to 6% in 2009
- 200 to 300 basis point decline in operating margin, excluding 2008
restructuring charges
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- Guidance for 2009:
- Revenue to decline 4% to 5%
- EPS in $2.20 to $2.30 range
- Operating margins for 2009 will reflect adoption of SFAS 160
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