Notes
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Outline
1
1Q 2007 Earnings Call
April 24, 2007
  • Presenters:
    Harold McGraw III
    Chairman, President and CEO
  • Robert J. Bahash
    Executive Vice President and CFO
  • Donald S. Rubin
    Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
2
Donald S. Rubin
Senior Vice President,
Investor Relations
The McGraw-Hill Companies
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“Safe Harbor” Statement Under
The Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995
  • This presentation includes certain forward-looking statements about the Company’s businesses, new products, sales, expenses, tax rates, cash flows and operating and capital requirements. Such forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to: the strength and sustainability of the U.S. and global economy; Educational Publishing’s level of success in 2007 adoptions and enrollment and demographic trends; the level of educational funding; the level of education technology investments; the strength of Higher Education, Professional and International publishing markets and the impact of technology on them; the level of interest rates and the strength of the economic recovery, profit levels and the capital markets in the U.S. and abroad; the level of success of new product development and global expansion and strength of domestic and international markets; the demand and market for debt ratings, including mortgage and asset-backed securities; the regulatory environment affecting Standard & Poor’s; the level of merger and acquisition activity in the U.S. and abroad; the strength of the domestic and international advertising markets; the volatility of the energy marketplace; the contract value of public works, manufacturing and single-family unit construction; the level of political advertising; and the level of future cash flow, debt levels, product-related manufacturing expenses, pension expense, distribution expenses, postal rates, prepublication, amortization and depreciation expense, income tax rates, capital, technology, restructuring charges and other expenditures and prepublication cost investment.
  • Actual results may differ materially from those in any forward-looking statements because any such statements involve risks and uncertainties and are subject to change based upon various important factors, including, but not limited to, worldwide economic, financial, political and regulatory conditions; currency and foreign exchange volatility; the health of capital and equity markets, including future interest rate changes; the implementation of an expanded regulatory scheme affecting Standard & Poor’s ratings and services; the level of funding in the education market (both domestically and internationally); the pace of recovery in advertising; continued investment by the construction, computer and aviation industries; the successful marketing of new products, and the effect of competitive products and pricing.
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Harold McGraw III
Chairman, President and CEO
The McGraw-Hill Companies
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A good start to achieving
double-digit earnings growth in 2007
  • EPS
    • 1Q 2007: $0.40, including a three-cent gain on sale of a mutual fund business in March
  • Revenue
    • 1Q 2007: Increased 13.7% to $1.3 billion
  • Margin improvement in all three segments
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Favorable economic outlook
  • Inflation under control at 2.5%
  • U.S. GDP growing at about 2.4%
  • Unemployment rate holding at 4.4%
  • David Wyss, S&P’s chief economist, believes housing starts and sales bottoming out after 30% decline
    • Prices down 3% and will probably decline another 5% by end of year
  • Non-commercial construction doing very well
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Favorable economic outlook
  • State revenues are solid
  • Bond rates stable
  • Federal Reserve held funds rate at 5.25% since June 2006
    • No change expected soon
    • One cut to 5% possible by year-end
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McGraw-Hill Education

Financial Services

Information & Media
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Promising start at
McGraw-Hill Education
  • 1Q 2007 segment results
    • Revenue + 5.6% to $331.7 million
    • Operating loss Reduced by 6.6% to $90.7 million
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Encouraging results
in a seasonally slow quarter
  • Higher Education, Professional
    and International Group
    • Revenue + 11.5% to $186.9 million
  • School Education Group
    • Revenue - 1.2% to $144.8 million
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School Education Group: 1Q results
  • 1Q represents less than 10% of full year K-12 market’s results
  • Pattern skewed in 1Q 2006 by $9 million in Texas orders that did not repeat in 2007
  • Closed most of gap in 1Q 1007
    • Key driver: March orders from North Carolina for music (K-5) and vocational, family and consumer science (6-12)
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Positive early indicators
at School Education Group
  • Signs that our newly-integrated school team is performing effectively
  • Strength in new adoption market starting to materialize
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Participating in more of
the addressable market in 2007
  • 2006: Competed for about 80% of available dollars in state new adoption market
  • 2007: We have products for virtually the entire state new adoption market
    • Market expected to grow 10-to-15%, or to between $750 and $800 million
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Poised for growth:
State new adoption market
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Encouraged by early feedback
  • Positive reports from the field in key campaigns
    • Science California
      South Carolina
    • Math Texas
      New Mexico
    • Music North Carolina
    • Social studies (2nd yr) California
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Encouraged by early feedback
  • Solid opportunities developing in large urban markets
    • New York City
    • Boston
    • Milwaukee
    • Washington, DC
  • Realized substantial sales in Washington, DC
    • K-5 science
    • 6-12 social studies
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Optimistic about
opportunities in open territory
  • Competing with new products
    • K-5 science
    • 6-12 literature
    • New editions of Everyday Mathematics and
      Open Court Reading
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Optimistic about
opportunities in open territory
  • Good early showing from Science Snapshots, new supplemental product for grades 3-5
  • Providing educators a classroom solution
    • Videos to see and hear about science
    • Students can work independently on computer
    • Addresses multiple learning styles
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Improved results in testing
  • Increases in custom work for state-wide assessment programs
    • Georgia
    • Colorado
    • Indiana
    • Florida
  • Sales of off-the-shelf test products flat in first quarter
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HPI Group:
Double-digit growth in 1Q
  • Higher Education
    • Very strong January; benefited from second semester ordering
    • Solid growth in 1Q with higher education products around the world
  • All three imprints produced solid gains in first quarter
    • Science, Engineering and Math
    • Business and Economics
    • Humanities, Social Sciences and Languages
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Providing digital solutions
to the higher education market
  • Increased demand for our digital Homework Manager product. Offered for:
    • World languages
    • Accounting
    • Math
    • Economics
  • New online courses getting favorable initial response
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More new digital
products for medical professionals
  • Harrison’s Practice: Our entrance into emerging patient care market
  • Access Pharmacy: Launched in April 2007
    • Designed to keep pace with changing demands of pharmaceutical education
    • Leveraging content from our classic reference texts
    • Offers fully-integrated drug database in English and Spanish
  • Joins Access Surgery and Access Emergency Medicine in lineup of ready-access digital resources for medical professionals
  • More specialties to follow
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Outlook for
McGraw-Hill Education
  • El-hi market
    • Growth expectations in 2007
      • 10-to-15% for state new adoption market
      • 3-to-4% in open territory
      • 5-to-7% industry growth
    • We expect to outperform the industry
  • U.S. college and university market
    • Expect about 4% growth in 2007
    • We expect to outperform this market
  • Expect margin expansion for McGraw-Hill Education segment in 2007
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McGraw-Hill Education

Financial Services

Information & Media
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Financial Services
  • 1Q 2007 segment results
    • Revenue +21.5% to $728.9 million
    • Operating profit +38.3% to $348.0 million
    • Operating margin 47.7%
      Includes $17.3 million pre-tax gain on sale of mutual fund data business in March
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Many contributors
to outstanding performance
  • World liquidity extremely plentiful
  • We continue to operate in favorable interest rate environment
  • Spreads remain tight
  • Investor demand for fixed income instruments is strong
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How a diversified and
resilient portfolio delivers results
  • Both domestic and international rating revenue grew at double-digit rates with international outpacing U.S. performance
  • Corporate and government ratings were strong
  • Structured finance was robust again globally
  • Products and services not tied to public new issue market grew substantially
  • Data and information products grew rapidly
  • Index services continue to expand
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Outlook for Financial Services
  • A strong start in 2007
  • More double-digit growth and margin expansion for balance of year, although probably not at exceptional rate of growth in 1Q
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How a diversified and
resilient portfolio delivers results
  • Record corporate issuance in first quarter
    • Up 43% in U.S. to $336 billion
  • Investment-grade and high-yield both strong performers
    • Strong merger and acquisition activity
    • Favorable financing
  • Demand for corporates continues unabated
    • Insurance companies, pension funds consistent buyers
    • High-yield market benefiting from reduction in default rate
    • Innovation in derivatives markets attracting high-yield investors
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How a diversified and
resilient portfolio delivers results
  • Public finance benefited from pick up in refundings and new money issuance
  • Environment is favorable
    • Expanding group of buyers
    • Increase in asset allocations to higher quality investments by aging baby boomers
  • Expect good year although volume expected to slow
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How a diversified and
resilient portfolio delivers results
  • Structured finance: Another strong quarter despite 10.8% decline in U.S. residential mortgage-backed securities issuance (RMBS)
  • Factors that shaped our forecast of a
    10-to-15% decline in U.S. RMBS this year:
    • Slowing housing sector
    • Rising mortgage rates
    • Slower housing price appreciation
    • Fewer housing starts
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S&P actively
monitors sub-prime market
  • When lending standards started to deteriorate in 2006 sub-prime market, S&P took action:
    • Raised level of credit support necessary for a rating by 50% compared to deals from 2005
  • Despite current activity in sub-prime market, no reason to materially change our expectations on level of issuance originally anticipated for 2007
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New issuance
dollar volume in 1Q 2007
  • $254.1 billion is U.S. residential mortgage-backed securities issuance in 1Q 2007
    • Prime and Alt-A issuance increased 5.6%
    • Sub-prime issuance declined 24.4%
  • European RMBS had strong quarter; outlook is positive
    • Stable economic conditions
    • Moderate home price growth fuels demand for mortgage credit
    • We anticipate RMBS activity in emerging markets
    • Started 2Q with good pipeline
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New issuance
dollar volume in 1Q 2007
  • Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS)
    • U.S. issuance strong
    • Saw steady improvement in Europe
  • Drivers of U.S. CMBS issuance
    • Strong commercial real estate fundamentals
    • Historically low interest rates
    • Refinancing of maturing deals
    • Rising property values
  • Pipeline looks good
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New issuance
dollar volume in 1Q 2007
  • Asset-backed securities (ABS) issuance
    • U.S.: Credit card and student loan activity offset slump in auto loan ABS issuance
    • Europe: Growth in 1Q; outlook is solid
  • Drivers of European ABS issuance
    • Small business loans
    • Auto loans and leases
    • Equipment leases
  • Basel II should have positive influence on market
    • Consumer banks restructure risk on balance sheets to adjust capital adequacy ratios
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New issuance
dollar volume in 1Q 2007
  • U.S. collateralized debt obligation (CDO) market up 154% in 1Q
      • We expect slower growth rate in subsequent quarters
      • Factored into our expectations
  • Key market factors in 1Q
    • Concerns about widening spreads resulting from credit quality deterioration in sub-prime market
    • Increase in collateralized loan obligations resulting from strength in corporate loan market
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New issuance
dollar volume in 1Q 2007
  • Outlook for U.S. CDO market
    • General agreement that spreads may not change or, if they do, they could widen slightly during remainder of year
    • S&P does not expect dramatic widening of spreads unless a shock to system triggers dramatic deterioration
  • Strong investor demand and broader acceptance of CDOs
    • Will see more growth in Europe
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Gains in products and
services not tied to debt issuance
  • 26.3% of ratings revenue in 1Q
    • Bank loan ratings a key driver of growth
  • We anticipate more growth from:
    • Bank loan ratings
    • Counterparty credit ratings
    • Financial strength ratings
    • Derivatives
    • Risk services
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Solid growth from products
and services for equity markets
  • Capital IQ product continues to grow rapidly
    • Now serving more than 1,900 clients
  • Increased subscribers for S&P’s:
    • RatingsDirect
    • Ratings Xpress
    • Compustat Xpressfeed
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Continuing to leverage
index products and services
  • 1Q: 113 ETFs linked to S&P indices
    • 85 in U.S. and 28 outside the U.S.
  • $170.3 billion in assets under management in ETFs based on S&P indices at end of 1Q 2007
    • 23.7% increase compared to 1Q 2006
  • 1Q benefited from trading of derivative contracts based on S&P indices
    • 1Q average daily trading volume of E-mini contracts: 1,376,979
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Outlook for
Financial Services
  • Summary
    • More double-digit growth and margin expansion for balance of year, although probably not at exceptional rate of growth produced in 1Q
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McGraw-Hill Education

Financial Services

Information & Media
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Information & Media
  • 1Q 2007 segment results
    • Revenue + 4.1% to $235.9 million
    • Operating profit $9.9 million, up from $1.7 million in 1Q 2006
    • Operating margin 4.2%
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Business-to-Business Group
  • Revenue grew 7.5% in 1Q to $212.2 million
  • Group includes our best-known brands
    • BusinessWeek
    • J.D. Power and Associates
    • Platts
    • McGraw-Hill Construction
    • Aviation Week
  • Key contributors
    • Sweets transformation and growth in Platts
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Broadcasting Group
  • Revenue fell 18.8% in 1Q
    • Absence of political advertising
    • Loss of Super Bowl
    • Decision not to renew Oprah Winfrey Show in two markets
  • Pacing for 2Q is off about 14%
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Internet reshaping B2B market
  • Making progress in digital world
    • Transformed Sweets from a primarily print product to a bundled print and online service
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Internet reshaping B2B market
  • Energy market looking for better tools and real-time information
    • Launched Platts eWindow in April 2007
      • New online tool to improve service to traders
    • Growing our real-time subscription services
    • Licensing our intellectual property for use in broader financial and futures markets
      • Intercontinental Exchange selected Platts’ Dubai price assessment for new crude oil futures contract
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The transformation
of Information & Media
  • BusinessWeek.com continues to improve its performance
    • Increases in advertising and unique visitors compared to last year
    • We continue to make investments in the product
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The transformation
of Information & Media
  • Building communities important aspect of digital world
    • ArchitecturalRecord.com making it easy for readers to share their work and interact with peers and editors
      • Architects post work on the website
      • Blogs and rating system encourage readers to evaluate projects online and in magazine
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Outlook for
Information & Media
  • Summary
    • Soft start in advertising, particularly at Broadcasting in non-political year
    • Growth in online services
    • Margin expansion
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Summing up for
The McGraw-Hill Companies
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Outlook for
The McGraw-Hill Companies
  • Summary
    • Encouraging indications in education
    • Strong start in Financial Services
    • Progress in Information & Media
    • Margin expansion in all three segments
    • Guidance for 2007: Double-digit earnings growth in 2007
      • More double-digit top- and bottom-line growth and margin expansion for balance of the year in Financial Services, although probably not at exceptional 1Q rate
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Robert J. Bahash
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
The McGraw-Hill Companies
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Accelerated stock buyback in 1Q
  • 2007 target: 15 million shares
  • 1Q 2007: 13.2 million shares repurchased for $842.4 million
    • $231 million settled and funded at beginning of 2Q
  • Balance of year: Expect to repurchase another 1.8 million shares
  • Capacity:
    • 6.8 million shares remaining in 2006 buyback program
    • 45 million shares in new program authorized by Board in January 2007
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A commitment to
advancing total shareholder value
  • Since 1996, returned $6.8 billion to MHP shareholders through dividends and share repurchases
    • Includes approximately $915 million returned in 1Q 2007
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Reduced fully-diluted weighted average shares outstanding (WASO)
  • 1Q 2007: 361.5 million shares
    • 15.8 million share decrease compared to 1Q 2006
    • 2.7 million share decrease compared to 4Q 2006
    • Modest 1Q benefit from buyback of 13.2 million shares since most were bought near end of March
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Ended 1Q in net debt position
  • Resumed borrowing in commercial paper market to fund seasonal cash requirements
  • 1Q 2007: $178 million net debt position vs. net cash position of $351 million at year-end 2006
    • As of March 31: On a gross basis, debt position is $607.5 million offset by $429.6 million in cash, primarily foreign holdings
  • 2007: Expect a return to net surplus cash position by year end
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Outlook for interest expense
  • 1Q 2007: $1.2 million net interest expense
    • 1Q 2006: MHP essentially debt free and had net interest income of $2.5 million


    • 2Q 2007: Expect increase in interest expense
    • Reflects commercial paper borrowings for full quarter
  • 2007: Expect full-year interest expense in $24-26 million range
    • Higher than previous estimate related to timing of funding costs for accelerated share repurchase program
    • Additional interest expense relating to FIN 48
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Revenue recognition
and transformation of Sweets
  • Transformed Sweets from a primarily print catalog into a bundled print and online service in 2006
  • Associated accounting change benefits year-over-year comparison for Information & Media segment
  • 1Q 2007 results reflect:
    • $6.5 million of revenue
    • $5.8 million of operating profit
60
Corporate expenses
  • 1Q 2007: Decreased $5.6 million or 13.8%, compared to a year ago
    • Several one-time factors in 1Q 2006 influencing decline:
      • $14.8 million charge for elimination of restoration stock option program
      • $4.6 million gain on sale of Dubuque, Iowa facility
  • Categories within corporate expense that increased:
      • Business Process Management program
      • Vacant space from downsizing
      • Incentive compensation
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Outlook for tax rate
  • 1Q 2007: Effective tax rate 37.7%
    • 50 basis point increase from prior year due to:
      • Change to accounting for uncertain tax positions (FIN 48)
      • Gain in connection with sale of mutual fund data business
      • State tax audit settlement
  • 2007: Rate for balance of year projected to be 37.5%
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Reduced projection for
prepublication investments
  • 1Q 2007: $57.4 million, compared to $61.6 million in same period last year
  • 2007: Now expect $310 million
    • Down from approximately $330 million due to efficiencies, technology, global sourcing and firming up forecast
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Growth in capital expenditures
for property and equipment
  • 1Q 2007: $22.7 million, compared to $11.6 million in same period last year
    • Began construction on new data center
    • Making technology investments to digitize our products and services
  • 2007: Continue to expect $250 million
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Outlook for
non-cash charges
  • Amortization of pre-publication costs
    • 1Q 2007:  $28.1 million, compared to $22.5 million in same period last year
      • Ramped up publishing schedule last year in anticipation of strong el-hi adoptions


    • 2007: Continue to expect $260 million
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Outlook for
non-cash charges
  • Depreciation
    • 1Q 2007:  $28.9 million, compared to $27.6 million in same period last year


    • 2007: Continue to expect $130 million, reflecting higher level of capital expenditures in 2007 and full year of depreciation from 2006 capital expenditures
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Outlook for
non-cash charges
  • Amortization of intangibles
    • 1Q 2007:  $11.6 million, compared to $11.9 million in same period last year


    • 2007:  Continue to expect $50 million
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1Q 2007 Earnings Call
April 24, 2007
  • Presenters:
    Harold McGraw III
    Chairman, President and CEO
  • Robert J. Bahash
    Executive Vice President and CFO
  • Donald S. Rubin
    Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
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1Q 2007 Earnings Call
April 24, 2007
  • Replay Options (Available from April 24 – May 1)


  • Telephone
  • Domestic: 800-685-1235
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  • Internet
  • Go to www.mcgraw-hill.com/investor_relations
  • Click on the Earnings Announcement link under
    Investor Presentation Webcasts