|
1
|
- Presenters:
Harold McGraw III
Chairman, President and CEO
- Robert J. Bahash
Executive Vice President and CFO
- Donald S. Rubin
Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
|
|
2
|
|
|
3
|
- This presentation includes certain forward-looking statements about the
Company’s businesses, new products, sales, expenses, tax rates, cash
flows and operating and capital requirements. Such forward-looking
statements include, but are not limited to: the strength and
sustainability of the U.S. and global economy; Educational Publishing’s
level of success in 2007 adoptions and enrollment and demographic
trends; the level of educational funding; the level of education
technology investments; the strength of Higher Education, Professional
and International publishing markets and the impact of technology on
them; the level of interest rates and the strength of the economic
recovery, profit levels and the capital markets in the U.S. and abroad;
the level of success of new product development and global expansion and
strength of domestic and international markets; the demand and market
for debt ratings, including mortgage and asset-backed securities; the
regulatory environment affecting Standard & Poor’s; the level of
merger and acquisition activity in the U.S. and abroad; the strength of
the domestic and international advertising markets; the volatility of
the energy marketplace; the contract value of public works,
manufacturing and single-family unit construction; the level of
political advertising; and the level of future cash flow, debt levels,
product-related manufacturing expenses, pension expense, distribution
expenses, postal rates, prepublication, amortization and depreciation
expense, income tax rates, capital, technology, restructuring charges
and other expenditures and prepublication cost investment.
- Actual results may differ materially from those in any forward-looking
statements because any such statements involve risks and uncertainties
and are subject to change based upon various important factors,
including, but not limited to, worldwide economic, financial, political
and regulatory conditions; currency and foreign exchange volatility; the
health of capital and equity markets, including future interest rate
changes; the implementation of an expanded regulatory scheme affecting
Standard & Poor’s ratings and services; the level of funding in the
education market (both domestically and internationally); the pace of
recovery in advertising; continued investment by the construction,
computer and aviation industries; the successful marketing of new
products, and the effect of competitive products and pricing.
|
|
4
|
|
|
5
|
- EPS
- 1Q 2007: $0.40, including a three-cent gain on sale of a mutual fund
business in March
- Revenue
- 1Q 2007: Increased 13.7% to $1.3 billion
- Margin improvement in all three segments
|
|
6
|
- Inflation under control at 2.5%
- U.S. GDP growing at about 2.4%
- Unemployment rate holding at 4.4%
- David Wyss, S&P’s chief economist, believes housing starts and sales
bottoming out after 30% decline
- Prices down 3% and will probably decline another 5% by end of year
- Non-commercial construction doing very well
|
|
7
|
- State revenues are solid
- Bond rates stable
- Federal Reserve held funds rate at 5.25% since June 2006
- No change expected soon
- One cut to 5% possible by year-end
|
|
8
|
|
|
9
|
- 1Q 2007 segment results
- Revenue + 5.6% to $331.7 million
- Operating loss Reduced by 6.6% to $90.7 million
|
|
10
|
- Higher Education, Professional
and International Group
- Revenue + 11.5% to $186.9 million
- School Education Group
- Revenue - 1.2% to $144.8 million
|
|
11
|
- 1Q represents less than 10% of full year K-12 market’s results
- Pattern skewed in 1Q 2006 by $9 million in Texas orders that did not
repeat in 2007
- Closed most of gap in 1Q 1007
- Key driver: March orders from North Carolina for music (K-5) and
vocational, family and consumer science (6-12)
|
|
12
|
- Signs that our newly-integrated school team is performing effectively
- Strength in new adoption market starting to materialize
|
|
13
|
- 2006: Competed for about 80% of available dollars in state new adoption
market
- 2007: We have products for virtually the entire state new adoption
market
- Market expected to grow 10-to-15%, or to between $750 and $800 million
|
|
14
|
|
|
15
|
- Positive reports from the field in key campaigns
- Science California
South Carolina
- Math Texas
New Mexico
- Music North Carolina
- Social studies (2nd yr) California
|
|
16
|
- Solid opportunities developing in large urban markets
- New York City
- Boston
- Milwaukee
- Washington, DC
- Realized substantial sales in Washington, DC
- K-5 science
- 6-12 social studies
|
|
17
|
- Competing with new products
- K-5 science
- 6-12 literature
- New editions of Everyday Mathematics and
Open Court Reading
|
|
18
|
- Good early showing from Science Snapshots, new supplemental product for
grades 3-5
- Providing educators a classroom solution
- Videos to see and hear about science
- Students can work independently on computer
- Addresses multiple learning styles
|
|
19
|
- Increases in custom work for state-wide assessment programs
- Georgia
- Colorado
- Indiana
- Florida
- Sales of off-the-shelf test products flat in first quarter
|
|
20
|
- Higher Education
- Very strong January; benefited from second semester ordering
- Solid growth in 1Q with higher education products around the world
- All three imprints produced solid gains in first quarter
- Science, Engineering and Math
- Business and Economics
- Humanities, Social Sciences and Languages
|
|
21
|
- Increased demand for our digital Homework Manager product. Offered for:
- World languages
- Accounting
- Math
- Economics
- New online courses getting favorable initial response
|
|
22
|
- Harrison’s Practice: Our entrance into emerging patient care market
- Access Pharmacy: Launched in April 2007
- Designed to keep pace with changing demands of pharmaceutical education
- Leveraging content from our classic reference texts
- Offers fully-integrated drug database in English and Spanish
- Joins Access Surgery and Access Emergency Medicine in lineup of
ready-access digital resources for medical professionals
- More specialties to follow
|
|
23
|
- El-hi market
- Growth expectations in 2007
- 10-to-15% for state new adoption market
- 3-to-4% in open territory
- 5-to-7% industry growth
- We expect to outperform the industry
- U.S. college and university market
- Expect about 4% growth in 2007
- We expect to outperform this market
- Expect margin expansion for McGraw-Hill Education segment in 2007
|
|
24
|
|
|
25
|
- 1Q 2007 segment results
- Revenue +21.5% to $728.9 million
- Operating profit +38.3% to $348.0 million
- Operating margin 47.7%
Includes $17.3 million pre-tax gain on sale of mutual fund data
business in March
|
|
26
|
- World liquidity extremely plentiful
- We continue to operate in favorable interest rate environment
- Spreads remain tight
- Investor demand for fixed income instruments is strong
|
|
27
|
- Both domestic and international rating revenue grew at double-digit
rates with international outpacing U.S. performance
- Corporate and government ratings were strong
- Structured finance was robust again globally
- Products and services not tied to public new issue market grew
substantially
- Data and information products grew rapidly
- Index services continue to expand
|
|
28
|
- A strong start in 2007
- More double-digit growth and margin expansion for balance of year,
although probably not at exceptional rate of growth in 1Q
|
|
29
|
- Record corporate issuance in first quarter
- Up 43% in U.S. to $336 billion
- Investment-grade and high-yield both strong performers
- Strong merger and acquisition activity
- Favorable financing
- Demand for corporates continues unabated
- Insurance companies, pension funds consistent buyers
- High-yield market benefiting from reduction in default rate
- Innovation in derivatives markets attracting high-yield investors
|
|
30
|
- Public finance benefited from pick up in refundings and new money
issuance
- Environment is favorable
- Expanding group of buyers
- Increase in asset allocations to higher quality investments by aging
baby boomers
- Expect good year although volume expected to slow
|
|
31
|
- Structured finance: Another strong quarter despite 10.8% decline in U.S.
residential mortgage-backed securities issuance (RMBS)
- Factors that shaped our forecast of a
10-to-15% decline in U.S. RMBS this year:
- Slowing housing sector
- Rising mortgage rates
- Slower housing price appreciation
- Fewer housing starts
|
|
32
|
- When lending standards started to deteriorate in 2006 sub-prime market,
S&P took action:
- Raised level of credit support necessary for a rating by 50% compared
to deals from 2005
- Despite current activity in sub-prime market, no reason to materially
change our expectations on level of issuance originally anticipated for
2007
|
|
33
|
- $254.1 billion is U.S. residential mortgage-backed securities issuance
in 1Q 2007
- Prime and Alt-A issuance increased 5.6%
- Sub-prime issuance declined 24.4%
- European RMBS had strong quarter; outlook is positive
- Stable economic conditions
- Moderate home price growth fuels demand for mortgage credit
- We anticipate RMBS activity in emerging markets
- Started 2Q with good pipeline
|
|
34
|
- Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS)
- U.S. issuance strong
- Saw steady improvement in Europe
- Drivers of U.S. CMBS issuance
- Strong commercial real estate fundamentals
- Historically low interest rates
- Refinancing of maturing deals
- Rising property values
- Pipeline looks good
|
|
35
|
- Asset-backed securities (ABS) issuance
- U.S.: Credit card and student loan activity offset slump in auto loan
ABS issuance
- Europe: Growth in 1Q; outlook is solid
- Drivers of European ABS issuance
- Small business loans
- Auto loans and leases
- Equipment leases
- Basel II should have positive influence on market
- Consumer banks restructure risk on balance sheets to adjust capital
adequacy ratios
|
|
36
|
- U.S. collateralized debt obligation (CDO) market up 154% in 1Q
- We expect slower growth rate in subsequent quarters
- Factored into our expectations
- Key market factors in 1Q
- Concerns about widening spreads resulting from credit quality
deterioration in sub-prime market
- Increase in collateralized loan obligations resulting from strength in
corporate loan market
|
|
37
|
- Outlook for U.S. CDO market
- General agreement that spreads may not change or, if they do, they
could widen slightly during remainder of year
- S&P does not expect dramatic widening of spreads unless a shock to
system triggers dramatic deterioration
- Strong investor demand and broader acceptance of CDOs
- Will see more growth in Europe
|
|
38
|
- 26.3% of ratings revenue in 1Q
- Bank loan ratings a key driver of growth
- We anticipate more growth from:
- Bank loan ratings
- Counterparty credit ratings
- Financial strength ratings
- Derivatives
- Risk services
|
|
39
|
- Capital IQ product continues to grow rapidly
- Now serving more than 1,900 clients
- Increased subscribers for S&P’s:
- RatingsDirect
- Ratings Xpress
- Compustat Xpressfeed
|
|
40
|
- 1Q: 113 ETFs linked to S&P indices
- 85 in U.S. and 28 outside the U.S.
- $170.3 billion in assets under management in ETFs based on S&P
indices at end of 1Q 2007
- 23.7% increase compared to 1Q 2006
- 1Q benefited from trading of derivative contracts based on S&P
indices
- 1Q average daily trading volume of E-mini contracts: 1,376,979
|
|
41
|
- Summary
- More double-digit growth and margin expansion for balance of year,
although probably not at exceptional rate of growth produced in 1Q
|
|
42
|
|
|
43
|
- 1Q 2007 segment results
- Revenue + 4.1% to $235.9 million
- Operating profit $9.9 million, up from $1.7 million in 1Q 2006
- Operating margin 4.2%
|
|
44
|
- Revenue grew 7.5% in 1Q to $212.2 million
- Group includes our best-known brands
- BusinessWeek
- J.D. Power and Associates
- Platts
- McGraw-Hill Construction
- Aviation Week
- Key contributors
- Sweets transformation and growth in Platts
|
|
45
|
- Revenue fell 18.8% in 1Q
- Absence of political advertising
- Loss of Super Bowl
- Decision not to renew Oprah Winfrey Show in two markets
- Pacing for 2Q is off about 14%
|
|
46
|
- Making progress in digital world
- Transformed Sweets from a primarily print product to a bundled print
and online service
|
|
47
|
- Energy market looking for better tools and real-time information
- Launched Platts eWindow in April 2007
- New online tool to improve service to traders
- Growing our real-time subscription services
- Licensing our intellectual property for use in broader financial and
futures markets
- Intercontinental Exchange selected Platts’ Dubai price assessment for
new crude oil futures contract
|
|
48
|
- BusinessWeek.com continues to improve its performance
- Increases in advertising and unique visitors compared to last year
- We continue to make investments in the product
|
|
49
|
- Building communities important aspect of digital world
- ArchitecturalRecord.com making it easy for readers to share their work
and interact with peers and editors
- Architects post work on the website
- Blogs and rating system encourage readers to evaluate projects online
and in magazine
|
|
50
|
- Summary
- Soft start in advertising, particularly at Broadcasting in
non-political year
- Growth in online services
- Margin expansion
|
|
51
|
|
|
52
|
- Summary
- Encouraging indications in education
- Strong start in Financial Services
- Progress in Information & Media
- Margin expansion in all three segments
- Guidance for 2007: Double-digit earnings growth in 2007
- More double-digit top- and bottom-line growth and margin expansion for
balance of the year in Financial Services, although probably not at
exceptional 1Q rate
|
|
53
|
|
|
54
|
- 2007 target: 15 million shares
- 1Q 2007: 13.2 million shares repurchased for $842.4 million
- $231 million settled and funded at beginning of 2Q
- Balance of year: Expect to repurchase another 1.8 million shares
- Capacity:
- 6.8 million shares remaining in 2006 buyback program
- 45 million shares in new program authorized by Board in January 2007
|
|
55
|
- Since 1996, returned $6.8 billion to MHP shareholders through dividends
and share repurchases
- Includes approximately $915 million returned in 1Q 2007
|
|
56
|
- 1Q 2007: 361.5 million shares
- 15.8 million share decrease compared to 1Q 2006
- 2.7 million share decrease compared to 4Q 2006
- Modest 1Q benefit from buyback of 13.2 million shares since most were
bought near end of March
|
|
57
|
- Resumed borrowing in commercial paper market to fund seasonal cash
requirements
- 1Q 2007: $178 million net debt position vs. net cash position of $351
million at year-end 2006
- As of March 31: On a gross basis, debt position is $607.5 million
offset by $429.6 million in cash, primarily foreign holdings
- 2007: Expect a return to net surplus cash position by year end
|
|
58
|
- 1Q 2007: $1.2 million net interest expense
- 1Q 2006: MHP essentially debt free and had net interest income of $2.5
million
- 2Q 2007: Expect increase in interest expense
- Reflects commercial paper borrowings for full quarter
- 2007: Expect full-year interest expense in $24-26 million range
- Higher than previous estimate related to timing of funding costs for
accelerated share repurchase program
- Additional interest expense relating to FIN 48
|
|
59
|
- Transformed Sweets from a primarily print catalog into a bundled print
and online service in 2006
- Associated accounting change benefits year-over-year comparison for
Information & Media segment
- 1Q 2007 results reflect:
- $6.5 million of revenue
- $5.8 million of operating profit
|
|
60
|
- 1Q 2007: Decreased $5.6 million or 13.8%, compared to a year ago
- Several one-time factors in 1Q 2006 influencing decline:
- $14.8 million charge for elimination of restoration stock option
program
- $4.6 million gain on sale of Dubuque, Iowa facility
- Categories within corporate expense that increased:
- Business Process Management program
- Vacant space from downsizing
- Incentive compensation
|
|
61
|
- 1Q 2007: Effective tax rate 37.7%
- 50 basis point increase from prior year due to:
- Change to accounting for uncertain tax positions (FIN 48)
- Gain in connection with sale of mutual fund data business
- State tax audit settlement
- 2007: Rate for balance of year projected to be 37.5%
|
|
62
|
- 1Q 2007: $57.4 million, compared to $61.6 million in same period last
year
- 2007: Now expect $310 million
- Down from approximately $330 million due to efficiencies, technology,
global sourcing and firming up forecast
|
|
63
|
- 1Q 2007: $22.7 million, compared to $11.6 million in same period last
year
- Began construction on new data center
- Making technology investments to digitize our products and services
- 2007: Continue to expect $250 million
|
|
64
|
- Amortization of pre-publication costs
- 1Q 2007: $28.1 million, compared
to $22.5 million in same period last year
- Ramped up publishing schedule last year in anticipation of strong
el-hi adoptions
- 2007: Continue to expect $260 million
|
|
65
|
- Depreciation
- 1Q 2007: $28.9 million, compared
to $27.6 million in same period last year
- 2007: Continue to expect $130 million, reflecting higher level of
capital expenditures in 2007 and full year of depreciation from 2006
capital expenditures
|
|
66
|
- Amortization of intangibles
- 1Q 2007: $11.6 million, compared
to $11.9 million in same period last year
- 2007: Continue to expect $50
million
|
|
67
|
- Presenters:
Harold McGraw III
Chairman, President and CEO
- Robert J. Bahash
Executive Vice President and CFO
- Donald S. Rubin
Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
|
|
68
|
- Replay Options (Available from April 24 – May 1)
- Telephone
- Domestic: 800-685-1235
- International: +1-203-369-3419
- No password required
- Internet
- Go to www.mcgraw-hill.com/investor_relations
- Click on the Earnings Announcement link under
Investor Presentation Webcasts
|