|
1
|
|
|
2
|
- Chairman, President and CEO
The McGraw-Hill Companies
|
|
3
|
- This presentation includes certain forward-looking statements about the
Company’s businesses, new products, sales, expenses, tax rates, cash
flows, prepublication investments and operating and capital
requirements. Such forward-looking statements include, but are not
limited to: the strength and sustainability of the U.S. and global
economy; Educational Publishing’s level of success in 2007 adoptions and
in open territories and enrollment and demographic trends; the level of
educational funding; the strength of School Education, Higher Education,
Professional and International publishing markets and the impact of
technology on them; the level of interest rates and the strength of the
economic recovery, profit levels and the capital markets in the U.S. and
abroad; the level of success of new product development and global
expansion and strength of domestic and international markets; the demand
and market for debt ratings, including collateralized debt obligations
(CDO), residential mortgage and asset-backed securities and related
asset classes; the regulatory environment affecting Standard &
Poor’s; the level of merger and acquisition activity in the U.S. and
abroad; the strength of the domestic and international advertising
markets; the volatility of the energy marketplace; the contract value of
public works, manufacturing and single-family unit construction; the
level of political advertising; and the level of future cash flow, debt
levels, product-related manufacturing expenses, distribution expenses,
prepublication, amortization and depreciation expense, income tax rates,
capital, technology, restructuring charges and other expenditures and
prepublication cost investment.
- Actual results may differ materially from those in any forward-looking
statements because any such statements involve risks and uncertainties
and are subject to change based upon various important factors,
including, but not limited to, worldwide economic, financial, political
and regulatory conditions; currency and foreign exchange volatility; the
health of capital and equity markets, including future interest rate
changes and concerns regarding the credit quality of subprime mortgages
adversely impacting future debt issuances of U.S. residential mortgage
backed securities and CDOs backed by subprime residential mortgages and
related asset classes; the implementation of an expanded regulatory
scheme affecting Standard & Poor’s ratings and services; the level
of funding in the education market (both domestically and
internationally); the pace of recovery in advertising; continued
investment by the construction, computer and aviation industries; the
successful marketing of new products, and the effect of competitive
products and pricing.
|
|
4
|
- Returned approximately $2.5 billion to shareholders in 2007
- Increased cash dividend by 12.9%
- Repurchased 37.0 million shares in 2007
- Expect to end 2007 with approximately 322.5 million shares
outstanding, a 31.5 million reduction from year-end 2006
|
|
5
|
- Board traditionally considers changes in cash dividend in January
- 10.4% average compound annual growth rate in dividend since 1974
|
|
6
|
- $8.4 billion returned to shareholders since 1996 through cash dividends
and share buybacks
|
|
7
|
- Expanding in international markets
- Making prudent acquisitions to enhance growth opportunities
- Using technology to monetize content and improve operating leverage
- Reducing dependence on advertising—now less than 6% of revenue
- Reducing dependence on U.S. bond market—39% of ratings revenue from
off-shore
|
|
8
|
- 2006: MHP’s foreign source revenue grew by 14.4%
- 24.5% of total revenue in 2006
- 2007: Foreign source revenue up nearly 20% after nine months
- Expect proportion to increase in 2007 and beyond, with all three
segments contributing to growth overseas
|
|
9
|
- Worldwide need for capital
- Global demand for knowledge
- Need for transparent business information
|
|
10
|
- Contributing to international growth
- J.D. Power and Associates
- Capital IQ
- CRISIL (now majority ownership)
- Acquired software companies to enhance capabilities in Financial
Services
|
|
11
|
- Creating new ways to:
- Monetize content
- Add incremental revenue
- Improve operating efficiency
- Increased digital workflow capabilities a key to improving efficiency
with vendors for composition, design, pre-press and printing
|
|
12
|
- S&P’s chief economist David Wyss expects U.S. GDP growth of 1.9% in
2008
- U.S. GDP increased 2.2% in 2007
- Forecast based on slow growth in 4Q 2007 and first half of 2008, and
pick up in second half of 2008
- World GDP expected to grow 4.5% in 2008
|
|
13
|
- U.S. housing recession will be factor for most of 2008
- New housing starts will begin to bottom out this spring
- Sales will bottom out a little later
- Housing prices will continue to fall in 2008
- 6.5% drop forecasted
- 13.0% decline peak-to-trough between
Dec ’06 and Dec ‘08
|
|
14
|
- Next interest rate cut by Federal Reserve could come at end of January
- Additional rate cuts possible in March and April
- Rate could be down to 3.5% by April
|
|
15
|
|
|
16
|
- Approximately 25% of Financial Services revenue not tied to ratings
- Generated by:
- Data
- Information
- Index services
- Research
|
|
17
|
- Benefit from creation, maintenance and marketing of growing family of
liquid and investable indices
- Source for some of world’s most valuable and actively-traded derivatives
|
|
18
|
- 2007: Introduced 52 new indices, not including custom indices
- 2007: Reached new milestone for number of U.S. and worldwide EFTs based
on S&P indices
- Assets under management in ETFs based on S&P indices at end of 2007
totaled $235.4 billion, 46% increase over year-end 2006
|
|
19
|
- New indices include:
- Thematic indices
- Shariah indices
- Emerging market indices
- Our first bond index, S&P National Municipal Bond index
- Real estate indices
- Commodity indices
- Volatility indices
|
|
20
|
- Trading of derivative contracts
- Basis points from assets under management in EFTs
- Licensing agreements
- Data and custom indices
|
|
21
|
- New opportunities to create products and services driven by:
- Expansion of cross-border investing
- Growing demand for new investable products and strategies
|
|
22
|
- Capital IQ client base has grown to 2,200 since acquisition
- Includes all major investment banks and majority of world’s top private
equity and hedge funds
- New offerings include:
- More fixed income and real-time information
- More company information
- More global content amid greater functionality
- Integrated S&P credit research and ratings
|
|
23
|
- Acquired ClariFI to enhance Capital IQ and Compustat’s ability to
deliver solutions to portfolio managers and quantitative analysts
|
|
24
|
- 2007 estimated: 39% of S&P ratings revenue comes from off-shore
- Will contribute more in years ahead
- 2008: New offices in Dubai and Johannesburg and signed agreement to
acquire rating agency in Israel will contribute to growth overseas
- Will also leverage South Asian hub for expansion in that region
|
|
25
|
- 25% of S&P ratings revenue comes from non-traditional products and
services
- Bank Loan Ratings
- Financial Strength Ratings
- Rating Evaluation Services
- Counterparty ratings
- Advanced analytics for insurance sector
|
|
26
|
- Fee structures reduce volatility at S&P ratings
- Lessen dependency on new issue market
- In first nine months of 2007, 48% of ratings revenue tied to
transactions
- Recurring revenue stream reflects growth of frequent issuer programs and
surveillance fees
- Contributed to MHP’s $1 billion in deferred revenue at end of 3Q 2007
- About 75% of unearned revenue comes from S&P
|
|
27
|
- Acquired IMAKE Consulting, a leading provider of software and services
to structured finance market
- ABSXchange, end-to-end solution provider of structured finance data,
analytics, cash flow analysis and modeling
|
|
28
|
|
|
29
|
|
|
30
|
- High single-digit decline in revenue
- Some margin contraction
|
|
31
|
- Remain confident about:
- Prospects in U.S. corporate and public finance markets
- Opportunities for growth overseas
- Opportunities in our non-ratings business
- Expect more conservative approach to financing in structured markets and
reduced appetite for complex structured products
|
|
32
|
- Planning actions to enhance processes in four key areas:
- Governance
- Analytics
- Information
- Education
|
|
33
|
- S&P will continue to work with regulators here and abroad
- Welcome opportunity to answer questions on policies, procedures
|
|
34
|
- 4Q 2007: High single-digit decline in revenue and some margin
contraction
- 2008 outlook:
- Visibility on structured market remains limited
- Growth prospects in corporate and public finance
- Increased contribution from international markets
- Growth in non-traditional ratings products
- Solid contribution from non-ratings
|
|
35
|
|
|
36
|
- Unlocks an individual’s economic potential
- No nation can compete in knowledge economy without an educated workforce
|
|
37
|
- Growing enrollments here and abroad
- Industry consolidation favors stable companies unencumbered by
significant debt
- Digital transformation is:
- Linking content and instruction
- Creating new opportunities to improve productivity and develop products
for incremental revenue
- Robust state new adoption markets for rest of decade
|
|
38
|
- Investments in digital products and services increasingly a source of
competitive advantage at all levels of education
|
|
39
|
- Treasures reading and language arts program
- Connecting traditional textbook-based instruction with digital
resources
to individualize classroom instruction
|
|
40
|
- MHP’s digital products and services include:
- Online courses
- Homework management
- Assessment solutions
|
|
41
|
|
|
42
|
- Open territory sales usually represent 50% of total market
- After 11 months in 2007, sales up only 0.8%
- Factors influencing uncertainty in 2008
- State and local funding for education could be an issue
- …but slow sales in last two years could result in pent up demand in
2008
- MHP 2008 estimates
- Industry sales in open territory to grow 1% to 2%
- Total industry sales to increase 4% to 5% after a gain of less than 4%
in 2007
|
|
43
|
- Reorganized school team captured market-leading 32% of available dollars
in 2007 state new adoption market
- Primed for another solid year in 2008
|
|
44
|
- 2008 U.S. college and university market will grow about 4% to 5%
- Increasing enrollments overseas will contribute to growth prospects
|
|
45
|
- 4Q 2007: No change to guidance
- Expect a decline in operating profit and some margin contraction
- Convergence of content and technology creates new growth opportunities
- State new adoption market growth projected at 15% to 20% in 2008, but
some concern about open territory
- 4% to 5% growth for U.S. college and university market in 2008
- Opportunities in international markets
- Increased investments in technology
|
|
46
|
|
|
47
|
- Framework for growth: Integrate our products with our customers’
workflow and infrastructure
|
|
48
|
- Performance benchmarks a key to expansion into new industries like
financial services
- Demand for J.D. Power’s customer satisfaction measurements is strong and
growing
|
|
49
|
- Platts is building benchmarks in gas, power, and steel markets
- Traditionally associated with oil markets
|
|
50
|
- McGraw-Hill Construction is enhancing analytics
- Providing analysis and forecasts to help firms identify emerging trends
and reduce risks
|
|
51
|
- Expect boost in 2008 with presidential election
- Our television stations will benefit from political advertising
- BusinessWeek
- Online ad revenue will continue to grow rapidly
- Print advertising will stabilize
|
|
52
|
- A segment in transition
- Growth in benchmarks, analytics and solutions
- A pick up in advertising
|
|
53
|
|
|
54
|
- Still expect to produce double-digit EPS growth in 2007 with improved
operating margins in Education and Financial Services
- Guidance excludes:
- $0.04 charge for elimination of restoration stock option program in 1Q
2006
- $0.06 charge for restructuring in second half of 2006
- $0.03 gain from divestiture of mutual fund data business at Financial
Services in 1Q 2007
|
|
55
|
- Guidance also excludes:
- $0.08 restructuring charge in 4Q 2007
- Pre-tax charge of $43.7 million, or $27.3 million after tax
- Mostly for employee severance for reduction of approximately 600
positions, or about 3% of our global workforce
|
|
56
|
- On a GAAP basis, inclusive of these items, the 2007 earnings growth
would be even stronger
- Management believes the non-GAAP financial measures provide more useful
information to investors due to the unusual nature of the excluded
items
|
|
57
|
- 4Q 2007: Still believe Corporation’s revenue and earnings will not match
last year’s results
- Reflects high single-digit decline in revenue and some margin
contraction in Financial Services
- And decline in operating profit and some margin contraction at
McGraw-Hill Education
|
|
58
|
- Completing work on 2008 budgets
- Taking a hard look at costs and opportunities to streamline operations
- 2007 earnings will be reported before the market opens on January 24
- Will provide 2008 guidance when market has the key numbers for 2007
|
|
59
|
|