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- Presenters:
- Harold McGraw III
Chairman, President and CEO
- Robert J. Bahash
Executive Vice President and CFO
- Donald S. Rubin
Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
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- This presentation includes certain forward-looking statements about the
Company’s businesses, new products, sales, expenses, tax rates, cash
flows, prepublication investments and operating and capital
requirements. Such forward-looking statements include, but are not
limited to: the strength and sustainability of the U.S. and global
economy; Educational Publishing’s level of success in 2007 adoptions and
in open territories and enrollment and demographic trends; the level of
educational funding; the strength of School Education, Higher Education,
Professional and International publishing markets and the impact of
technology on them; the level of interest rates and the strength of the
economic recovery, profit levels and the capital markets in the U.S. and
abroad; the level of success of new product development and global
expansion and strength of domestic and international markets; the demand
and market for debt ratings, including collateralized debt obligations
(CDO), residential mortgage and asset-backed securities and related
asset classes; the regulatory environment affecting Standard &
Poor’s; the level of merger and acquisition activity in the U.S. and
abroad; the strength of the domestic and international advertising
markets; the volatility of the energy marketplace; the contract value of
public works, manufacturing and single-family unit construction; the
level of political advertising; and the level of future cash flow, debt
levels, product-related manufacturing expenses, distribution expenses,
prepublication, amortization and depreciation expense, income tax rates,
capital, technology, restructuring charges and other expenditures and
prepublication cost investment.
- Actual results may differ materially from those in any forward-looking
statements because any such statements involve risks and uncertainties
and are subject to change based upon various important factors,
including, but not limited to, worldwide economic, financial, political
and regulatory conditions; currency and foreign exchange volatility; the
health of capital and equity markets, including future interest rate
changes and concerns regarding the credit quality of subprime mortgages
adversely impacting future debt issuances of U.S. residential mortgage
backed securities and CDOs backed by subprime residential mortgages and
related asset classes; the implementation of an expanded regulatory
scheme affecting Standard & Poor’s ratings and services; the level
of funding in the education market (both domestically and
internationally); the pace of recovery in advertising; continued
investment by the construction, computer and aviation industries; the
successful marketing of new products, and the effect of competitive
products and pricing.
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- EPS
- 3Q 2007: Increased 26.4% to $1.34 vs. $1.06 last year
- 3Q 2006 diluted EPS included a $0.03 restructuring charge
- Net income
- 3Q 2007: Grew by 18.2% to $452.0 million
- Revenue
- 3Q 2007: Increased 9.8% to $2.2 billion
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- 3Q 2007 segment results
- Revenue + 9.9% to $1.2 billion
- Operating profit Increased by 16.1% to
$411.1 million
- Includes pre-tax gain of $4.1 million on divestiture of
product line for parochial schools
- 3Q 2006 had $5.6 million pre-tax restructuring charge
- Operating margin 35.0%, up from 33.1% in 3Q 2006
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- School Education Group
- Revenue + 11.2% to $670.8 million
- Higher Education, Professional
and International Group
- Revenue + 8.1% to $505.1 million
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- Reorganized basal operations in 2006 to improve competitive position
- Strengthened sales, marketing and product development
- Stepped up new product introductions to take advantage of opportunities
in expanding market
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- 2006: Competed for about 80% of available dollars in state new adoption
market
- Took a 20% share of a $685 million market
- 2007: Competed in virtually the entire state new adoption market which
is growing 14% to 20% ($780 to $820 million)
- Taking industry-leading market share of 32%
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- Led all competitors in California and South Carolina for K–8 science and
6–8 math in Texas
- Placed first in all six states adopting elementary music
- Treasures, K–5 reading program, led market in Indiana and competed well
in Oregon and Tennessee
- 30%+ capture rates in both K–5 and 6–12 state new adoption markets
- Result of a reorganized and better-led team
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- Added market share with spectrum of products
- Reform-based Everyday Mathematics
- New Mexico: Took leading share in K–5 math adoption
- Open territory: Sold well in urban and suburban markets
- Non-academic programs capture significant business in small but
profitable markets:
- Health
- Business education
- Technical and vocational education
- Family and consumer science
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- Anecdotal evidence of non-discretionary costs rising more rapidly than
funding
- Substantial increases in transportation, heating and cooling costs for
districts
- We are examining trends in more depth to gain greater insight into
changes taking place
- Market down 1.4% after eight months
- 4Q orders could produce uptick in 2007
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- Products not clearly correlated with state standards are losing ground
to new core curriculum programs
- What’s growing:
- New standards-based programs with extensive ancillary materials
supplanting supplemental titles
- New demand for intervention programs
- Success with Kaleidoscope literacy and Number Worlds math programs
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- Strength in state new adoption market will offset some softness in
non-adoption states
- Expect el-hi market to grow 3% to 5% in 2007
vs. 5% to 7% originally forecasted
- Expect slower growth in open territory, which had been expected to grow
4% in 2007
- School Education Group
- Expects to outperform market for the year
- Outpacing competition in state new adoption market and open territory
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- Performance in custom and off-the-shelf products has improved
- Won new summative contract in Indiana and
5-year renewal in West Virginia
- Gains in formative market for Acuity, our new testing product
- Won 5-year, $80 million contract with New York City
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- International markets
- Strong school sales in Canada and Spain
- Solid higher education sales in Europe, Asia and India
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- Business and Economics imprint set the pace in 3Q with solid gains in
four key disciplines
- Now expect market to grow 5% – 6% in 2007
- We expect to keep pace with industry
- Originally expected market to grow about 4% in 2007
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- CourseSmart debuts this fall
- A new college publisher cooperative e-book and e-commerce website
- Enables instructors to evaluate textbooks and related material in one
location
- Students offered a lower cost alternative plus functionality of the Web
- McGraw-Hill’s Higher Education group is starting with 148 e-books
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- Increasing institutional sales with two new verticals introduced this
year
- Access Emergency Medicine
- Access Pharmacy
- Our professional books
are making best-seller lists
- Rules for Renegades on
four best-seller lists
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- Solid third quarter performance and market share gains in
elementary-high school market
- Good growth in higher education in U.S. and abroad
- Digital products continue to gain traction in higher education and
professional markets
- Now expect:
- El-hi market to grow 3% to 5%
- U.S. college and university to grow 5% to 6%
- Operating margin for the segment will improve for the year
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- 3Q 2007 segment results
- Revenue +12.5% to $759.6 million
- Operating profit +17.3% to $346.7 million
- Operating margin 45.6%, up from 43.8% last year
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- Strong performers included:
- International credit ratings
- Double-digit growth
- Now 41.6% of ratings revenue
- Non-traditional ratings and services
- Double-digit growth
- Now 25.7% of ratings revenue
- Corporate and government ratings
- Financial information products and services
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- Credit card issuance continues to show some strength
- Reasons for optimism:
- Scheduled refinancing
- Increased credit card utilization by consumers
- Solid issuance of auto loans as banks redeploy capital to fixed-rate,
short-term auto loans instead of mortgage products
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- Commercial real estate fundamentals remain strong…
- But activity has been chilled by subprime problems in residential
market
- Widening spreads have kept investors on sidelines
- Reduced demand for new issuance
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- Weaker U.S. structured finance will be at least partially offset by
continuing strength in:
- Investment-grade corporates
- International markets
- Non-traditional ratings and services
- Annual contracts and surveillance fees
- Financial information products and services
- Vigorous expense management
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- Investment-grade corporate issuance setting new records
- Industrial issuance will be driven by:
- Favorable financing environment
- M&A activity
- Investments in capital expenditures
- Financial services issuance will be driven by many of same factors, as
well as balance sheet restructurings
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- Spreads remain historically tight
- Rates remain low
- Expect a 10% to 11% increase in 2008 in potential refundings
- 4Q 2007: $47.9 billion of U.S. corporate debt to mature or be called
- 2008: Another $250.7 billion is potentially refundable
- New issuance calendar looks strong in coming months
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- Trading started in 3Q 2007 of six new ETFs based on S&P indices
- Including S&P’s first in fixed income space — S&P National
Municipal Bond Index, sponsored by Barclays Global Investors
- 133 ETFs now based on S&P indices
- Making good progress licensing clients for S&P GSCI index, our new
commodities index
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- Capital IQ product continues to grow rapidly
- Adding new clients
- Expanding its base with existing customers
- New modules increasing demand for Capital IQ
- Portfolio management tools
- Expect more innovation and more expansion in international markets
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- Too soon to start making projections for 2008
- A calm is returning to global credit markets
- Fragile stability is setting in
- More focus on credit quality going forward
- Benefits of securitization will remain strong after current turbulence
has dissipated
- Liquidity
- Economic capital reduction
- Tradeability
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- Timing of Fed rate cut
- S&P’s economist David Wyss thinks Fed rate cut will be in December,
more likely January 2008
- Chances of rate cut later this month have faded with 3Q growth
appearing stronger than expected
- Housing recession has a way to go
- Wyss predicts housing prices will fall nationally by 11% peak to
trough, with another 6% to 8% still to come
- No rebound expected until end of 2008
- Areas hardest hit could experience price declines of 15% or more
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- SEC designated Standard & Poor’s an NRSRO in September
- SEC commenced an examination of rating agencies’ policies and procedures
under U.S. Credit Rating Agency Reform Act of 2006
- S&P is cooperating with SEC in connection with this examination
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- We will continue to work with various entities to answer questions about
our policies and procedures
- SEC
- Regulators in Europe
- U.S. Congress
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- We don’t believe any pending legal, governmental or self-regulatory
proceeding will result in a material adverse effect on our financial
conditions or our operations
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- Summary
- A solid performance in third quarter despite tough market environment
- Worsening conditions for structured finance in 4Q, but rest of business
remains strong
- Double-digit top- and bottom-line performance for the full year
- Margin expansion for the full year
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- 3Q 2007 segment results
- Revenue + 2.1% to $252.4 million
- Operating profit + 35.8% to $18.6 million
- Pre-tax restructuring charge of
$5.8 million in 3Q
2006
- Operating margin 7.4%, up from 5.5% in 3Q 2006
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- A segment in transition
- We are working to overcome softness in advertising with increased sales
of higher-value information products and services delivered online
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- 3Q revenue in Broadcasting Group declined by 7.8% in non-election year
- 3Q revenue for Business-to-Business Group up 3.2%
- BusinessWeek’s ad pages off 24.6% in 3Q
- Growth from information products and services
- Key contributors:
- Pricing and news for oil, natural gas, and power from Platts
- Expansion of J.D. Power and Associates’ international research and
proprietary studies
- Products and services delivered online to construction industry
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- Offering smart perspectives from around the world along side stories
developed by BusinessWeek
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- Goal: Solidify BusinessWeek’s leadership as multi-platform global
business media organization and build on healthy circulation statistics
- Newsstand sales up 25% in first half
- Key indicator of editorial vitality
- Average price per subscriber is up 1%
- Overall, circulation is steady
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- Summary
- A segment in transition
- Advertising remains soft
- Growth in online information products
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- 2007: Still expect improved operating margins for Financial Services and
McGraw-Hill Education
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- Guidance excludes:
- $0.04 charge for elimination of restoration stock option program in 1Q
2006
- $0.06 charge for restructuring in second half of 2006
- $0.03 gain from divestiture of mutual fund data business at Financial
Services in 1Q 2007
- On a GAAP basis, inclusive of these items, the 2007 earnings growth
would be even stronger
- Management believes the non-GAAP financial measures provide more useful
information to investors due to the unusual nature of the excluded
items
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- Financial Services faces toughest comparisons of the year in 4Q
- 4Q 2006: 22.1% revenue growth
- 4Q 2007: Expect a high
single-digit decline in revenue and some margin contraction
- McGraw-Hill Education
- 4Q 2007: In a seasonally small
quarter, expect decline in operating profit and margin compression
- 4Q 2007: Corporation’s revenues and earnings will not match last year’s
results
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- Summary
- 4Q 2007: Reduced revenue and earnings vs. last year
- 2007: Double-digit EPS growth
- 2007: Margin expansion for the year in Financial Services and
McGraw-Hill Education
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- 3Q 2007: 10.5 million shares repurchased for $616 million
- 2007: $1.9 billion in nine months for 30 million shares. Average of
$63.00 per share
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- Since 1996, MHP returned $8.0 billion to shareholders through dividends
and share repurchases
- Includes more than $2.1 billion returned in first nine months of 2007
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- Capacity:
- 35 million shares left in new program authorized by Board in January
2007
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- 3Q 2007: 337.7 million shares
- 12.6 million share decrease vs. 2Q 2007
- 23.2 million share decrease vs. 3Q 2006
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- 3Q 2007: $879 million net debt position,
up from $636 million at end of 2Q
- As of September 30: On a gross basis, debt position is approximately
$1.3 billion offset by $453 million in cash, primarily foreign holdings
- Debt reflects mix of short-term borrowings, primarily in commercial
paper, with balance in extendible commercial notes and money market
loans
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- 3Q 2007: $15.4 million net interest expense
- More than double the $7.5 million in 3Q 2006 due to increased borrowing
- 2007: Expected in the range of $39-41 million
- Slightly lower than previous estimate of
$40-42 million
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- 3Q 2007: Down $9.5 million or 20.1%, compared to a year ago
- 3Q 2006 included $4.1 million of restructuring charges
- Excluding the $4.1 million charge, 3Q 2007 corporate expense decreased
$5.4 million vs. same period last year
- Decrease primarily driven by:
- Lower incentive compensation accruals
- A one-time gain from the sale of an equity investment
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- 3Q 2007: Sold a non-strategic product line within K–12 business
- Resulted in pre-tax gain of $4.1 million
- 3Q 2006: Pre-tax restructuring charges of $15.4 million, or $0.03 per
share
- Primarily for employee severance in McGraw-Hill Education, Information
& Media and at Corporate
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- 3Q 2007: Effective tax rate 37.5%, vs. 37.2%
in same period last year
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- 3Q 2007: $76.9 million, vs. $64.3 million for same period last year
- 2007: Continue to expect $310 million
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- 3Q 2007: $63.0 million, vs. $24.6 million for same period last year
- New data center is expected to be completed in first half of 2008
- Making technology investments to digitize products and services
- 2007: Still expect $250 million
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- Amortization of prepublication costs
- 3Q 2007: $110.5 million, vs.
$103.3 million in same period last year
- 2007: Now expect $250 million, down slightly from previous estimate of
$260 million
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- Depreciation
- 3Q 2007: $26.2 million, vs.
$26.9 million in same period last year
- 2007: Now expect $120 million, down from previous estimate of $130
million due to change in timing of capital expenditures in 2007
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- Amortization of intangibles
- 3Q 2007: $11.7 million, vs.
$12.1 million in
same period last year
- 2007: Continue to expect $50
million
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- Unearned revenue
- 3Q 2007: Just over $1 billion
- Up from $883.6 million in prior year, a 13.7% increase
- Revenue will be largely recognized over next twelve months
- Softer revenue forecast for 4Q 2007 is likely to impact unearned
revenue growth in fourth quarter
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- Replay Options (Available from October 18-25)
- Telephone
- Domestic: 888-567-0387
- International: +1-402-998-1761
- No password required
- Internet
- Go to www.mcgraw-hill.com/investor_relations
- Click on the Earnings Announcement link under
Investor Presentation Webcasts
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