Notes
Slide Show
Outline
1
2Q 2007 Earnings Call
July 24, 2007
  • Presenters:
  • Harold McGraw III
    Chairman, President and CEO


  • Robert J. Bahash
    Executive Vice President and CFO


  • Vickie Tillman
    Executive Vice President, Standard & Poor’s


  • Donald S. Rubin
    Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
2
Donald S. Rubin
Senior Vice President,
Investor Relations
The McGraw-Hill Companies
3
“Safe Harbor” Statement Under
The Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995
  • This presentation includes certain forward-looking statements about the Company’s businesses, new products, sales, expenses, tax rates, cash flows and operating and capital requirements. Such forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to: the strength and sustainability of the U.S. and global economy; Educational Publishing’s level of success in 2007 adoptions and in open territories and enrollment and demographic trends; the level of educational funding; the level of education technology investments; the strength of School Education, Higher Education, Professional and International publishing markets and the impact of technology on them; the level of interest rates and the strength of the economic recovery, profit levels and the capital markets in the U.S. and abroad; the level of success of new product development and global expansion and strength of domestic and international markets; the demand and market for debt ratings, including collateralized debt obligations (CDO), residential mortgage and asset-backed securities and related asset classes; the regulatory environment affecting Standard & Poor’s; the level of merger and acquisition activity in the U.S. and abroad; the strength of the domestic and international advertising markets; the volatility of the energy marketplace; the contract value of public works, manufacturing and single-family unit construction; the level of political advertising; and the level of future cash flow, debt levels, product-related manufacturing expenses, pension expense, distribution expenses, postal rates, prepublication, amortization and depreciation expense, income tax rates, capital, technology, restructuring charges and other expenditures and prepublication cost investment.
  • Actual results may differ materially from those in any forward-looking statements because any such statements involve risks and uncertainties and are subject to change based upon various important factors, including, but not limited to, worldwide economic, financial, political and regulatory conditions; currency and foreign exchange volatility; the health of capital and equity markets, including future interest rate changes and concerns regarding the credit quality of subprime mortgages adversely impacting future debt issuances of U.S. residential mortgage backed securities and CDOs backed by subprime residential mortgages and related asset classes; the implementation of an expanded regulatory scheme affecting Standard & Poor’s ratings and services; the level of funding in the education market (both domestically and internationally); the pace of recovery in advertising; continued investment by the construction, computer and aviation industries; the successful marketing of new products, and the effect of competitive products and pricing.
4
Harold McGraw III
Chairman, President and CEO
The McGraw-Hill Companies
5
More progress toward achieving
double-digit earnings growth in 2007
  • EPS
    • 2Q 2007: Increased 31.7% to $0.79
  • Revenue
    • 2Q 2007: Increased 12.5% to $1.7 billion
  • Margin improvement in all three segments
6
Favorable economic outlook
  • Inflation remains moderate at 2.2%
  • U.S. GDP now growing at 2.1% for 2007
  • David Wyss, S&P’s chief economist, believes housing prices knocked 1 percentage point off GDP growth in 2007
    • Losses may not hit peak until late 2008 or early 2009
  • Non-residential construction continues to do well
  • State budgets in good shape, which is good for education
7
McGraw-Hill Education

Financial Services

Information & Media
8
More progress at
McGraw-Hill Education
  • 2Q 2007 segment results
    • Revenue + 5.8% to $647.3 million
    • Operating profit Increased by 18.6% to
      $80.4 million
    • Operating margin 12.4%
9
More progress at
McGraw-Hill Education in 2Q
  • School Education Group
    • Revenue + 3.3% to $403.3 million


  • Higher Education, Professional
    and International Group
    • Revenue + 10.3% to $244.0 million
10
Great time
to be in educational publishing
  • We are building for a promising future
  • Contrast with industry in flux:
    • Changes in ownership
    • Changes in organization
    • Consolidation reduces number of major competitors from four to three in el-hi market
  • We expect to gain share in 2007 in el-hi and U.S. college and university markets
11
Strengthened our
School Education Group
  • Created a single, well-coordinated K-12 team last Fall under direction of most experienced and successful managers
  • We’re improving our performance in both K-5 and 6-12 markets
12
Strengthened our
School Education Group
  • Broad and deep product line-up is helping us perform well in academic and non-academic subjects
  • Achieving high market share in non-academic subjects
    • Health
    • Business education
    • Technical and vocational education
    • Family and consumer science
13
2007 state new adoption market:
10 to 15% increase over last year
14
Participating in more of
the addressable market in 2007
  • 2006: Competed for about 80% of available dollars in state new adoption market
  • 2007: We have products for virtually the entire state new adoption market
  • We expect to take more than 30% of available dollars in total state new adoption market
    • Math and science offer biggest opportunities this year
15
Drivers of 2Q el-hi revenue
  • Results driven by
    • 6-12 Texas math
    • K-12 California science
    • K-8 South Carolina science
  • Optimistic about performance of Treasures
    • Competing well in Indiana, Tennessee and Oregon
  • Picking up new business in second year of California’s K-8 social studies adoption
  • Outlook promising in 6-12 literature and reading market in Indiana, Oregon, Tennessee, and West Virginia
16
The outlook in open territory
  • Won major adoptions in large urban markets
  • Most small- and medium-sized districts don’t order until 3Q
  • We expect open territory market to grow about 4% this year
  • New edition of Everyday Mathematics will help us achieve open territory goals
    • Generating new business in Philadelphia, New York City, Seattle
    • We should be a leader in K-5 New Mexico adoption
17
Outlook for supplemental market
  • Market has been soft this year but supplemental tends to be a second-half business
  • We have created a strong line-up to meet need for targeted skills-based intervention programs
    • Needed for both elementary and 6-12 students
18
Mixed results in testing
  • Softness in custom and shelf products in 2Q
  • Getting traction with Acuity, our new formative testing product
    • Suite of diagnostic and predictive benchmark assessments
    • Won 5-year, $80 million arrangement with New York City—largest formative contract awarded in U.S.
    • Also selected by Indianapolis, IN and Mesa, AZ
  • Acuity Algebra selected by RAND Corporation for
    five-year study being funded by U.S. Department of Education
19
Off to good start in
U.S. college and university market
  • Three major imprints performing well
    • Science, Engineering and Math
    • Business and Economics
    • Humanities, Social Sciences and Languages
  • Digital products producing incremental revenue
    • Homework management products give students access to interactive online textbooks
    • New iPod and MP3 compatible features in media-enhanced texts proving popular with students
20
Progress in professional markets
  • 2Q 2007 benefited from publication of 10th edition of Encyclopedia of Science and Technology, issued every five years
    • 20-volume work is selling well here and abroad
  • Other best-sellers in professional markets
    • Harrison’s Manual of Medicine, 16th Edition
    • The Millionaire Maker’s Guide to Creating a Cash Machine for Life
    • Nursing Spectrum Drug Handbook 2008
    • Current Medical Diagnosis and Treatment, 2007, 46th Edition
21
Outlook for
McGraw-Hill Education
  • A solid year is taking shape in education
    • El-hi market expected to grow 5% to 7%
    • U.S. college and university expected to grow about 4%
    • We expect to outperform in both markets
  • We anticipate margin expansion for the segment for the full year
22
McGraw-Hill Education

Financial Services

Information & Media
23
Financial Services
  • 2Q 2007 segment results
    • Revenue +21.2% to $821.0 million
    • Operating profit +27.9% to $401.4 million
    • Operating margin 48.9%
24
Many contributors
to success in second quarter
  • Unique blend of fixed income and equity services reduce our dependency on any single asset class
  • Financial Services’ strong and growing position in international markets
  • Growing array of new services in both fixed income and equity markets
  • Durability of powerful growth trends in our markets
          • Securitization, globalization, privatization and disintermediation
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How a diversified and
resilient portfolio delivers results
  • International markets grew at double-digit rate
    • 38.9% of ratings revenue in 2Q, up from 36.6% for same period a year ago
  • U.S. corporates set a new record for issuance for second quarter in a row
    • U.S. investment-grade up 33.0%
    • High-yield up 42.6%
  • Public finance grew solidly because of new money issuance and refundings
26
How a diversified and
resilient portfolio delivers results
  • Structured finance globally strong despite 12.4% decline in dollar volume issuance in U.S. residential mortgage-backed securities
    • Strength in European residential mortgage-backed securities
    • Solid performances in all asset classes in Europe
27
How a diversified and
resilient portfolio delivers results
  • Commercial mortgage-backed securities market grew solidly here and abroad
  • U.S. CDO market met our expectations; issuance grew 58% in 2Q
  • Asset-backed securities market saw more modest gains
28
How a diversified and
resilient portfolio delivers results
  • Ratings and services not directly linked to public new issuance also grew at double-digit rate in 2Q
    • Accounted for 22.6% of ratings revenue in 2Q compared to 24.1% in same period last year
    • Bank loans a key driver
29
How a diversified and
resilient portfolio delivers results
  • Capital IQ product continues to grow rapidly
    • Approximately 2,000 clients—a 29% increase over prior year
  • Acquisition of ClariFi strengthens our position
  • Good growth in data and information market from:
    • Compustat
    • RatingsDirect
    • RatingsXpress
30
How a diversified and
resilient portfolio delivers results
  • $178.6 billion in assets under management in ETFs based on S&P indices at end of June 2007
    • 20.9% increase compared to June 2006
  • 127 ETFs linked to S&P indices
    • 30 launched so far this year
  • S&P/Citigroup Indices form backbone for creating new customized indices, benchmarks
31
Continuing to leverage
index products and services
  • Successfully licensing recently acquired commodity indices from Goldman Sachs
    • Morgan Stanley
    • Barclays Bank
    • Deutsche Bank
    • National Bank of Canada
    • UBS
    • Wachovia
    • Cargill
  • Pipeline is growing
32
Outlook for Financial Services
  • We expect low double-digit growth in second half
    • Tougher comparisons in 4Q
33
Outlook for U.S. corporate issuance
  • Corporate issuance off to strong start in 2007
    • Large new-issue calendar
    • Attractive financing environment
34
Outlook for U.S. public finance
  • Dollar volume issuance started on an upswing at start of year
  • We expect somewhat slower growth for balance of 2007
35
Outlook for U.S. residential mortgage-backed securities market
  • Dollar volume issuance off 11.6% in first half
    • Further decline
      in second half
    • Dollar volume
      issuance could
      decline by 15%
      to 20% in 2007
    • Potential deals
      on hold as issuers
      reprice to new criteria
      and gauge market’s
      appetite for RMBS
36
Outlook for U.S. commercial mortgage-backed securities market
  • Market up 36.8% in first half, driven by low interest rates and strong commercial real estate fundamentals
  • Pipeline is robust
37
Outlook for U.S.
asset-backed securities market
  • Dollar volume issuance up 22.5% in first half
  • Pipeline looks solid
38
Outlook for
U.S. collateralized debt obligations
  • Soared last year and off to fast start in 2007
  • Expect more growth in CDO market in second half, but at rates well below blistering pace established in third and fourth quarters last year
39
Outlook for
European structured finance
  • Pipeline looks very good
  • Expect solid second half with all asset classes showing strength with the toughest comparison coming in 4Q
40
More progress from
data, information and indices
  • We expect a solid second half in 2007
41
Outlook for Financial Services
  • Summary
    • Continued strength overseas
    • More growth in structured market
    • Solid prospects in the corporate market
    • Growing contributions from data, information and indices
    • Low double-digit growth in second half, tougher comparison in 4Q
    • Margin expansion for the full year
42
Federal court reaffirms strong
legal protection for rating agencies
  • From June 2007 decision:
    •   “Imposing such liability would open the floodgates of litigation against credit rating agencies by disappointed investors and creditors and chill the agencies from vital and vigorous participation in the ratings process and the marketplace, where the free flow of information and conflicting views ideally establish reliability.”
43
Vickie Tillman
Executive Vice President
Standard & Poor’s
44
Standard & Poor’s
analysis of credit markets
  • More than a year ago, S&P identified the deterioration in RMBS securities backed by subprime loans credit quality and began signaling the market
  • In June, S&P signaled potential emerging issues with the collateralized loan obligations
          • The covenant-lite juggernaut is raising CLO risks
45
Standard & Poor’s
analysis of credit markets
  • S&P does not structure or engineer transactions nor does it arbitrate on which deals can or cannot proceed
          • S&P guidelines and criteria are publicly available
  • 4. Tightening criteria may have an adverse impact on market share
          • Nevertheless, S&P adjusts criteria to reflect how changing conditions impact credit risk to maintain an excellent track record
46
Standard & Poor’s
analysis of credit markets
  • Performance of S&P’s structured finance ratings has been exceptionally strong
          • 0.87% average five-year default rate for investment-grade structured finance securities
          • 15.42% average five-year default rate for speculative-grade structured securities
47
Standard & Poor’s
analysis of credit markets
  • In April 2006, S&P identified heightened credit exposure of affordability products with layering of multiple risk factors in loan programs
    • S&P adjusted its assumptions
48
Standard & Poor’s
analysis of credit markets
  • S&P’s concern: Duration and severity of issues affecting future credit performance
    • Need sufficient time and data to see how collateral pools are performing
  • S&P’s recent actions on RMBS transactions are a continuation of applying adjusted assumptions to delinquency default and loss trends
49
Standard & Poor’s
analysis of credit markets
  • Actions in July:
    • S&P downgraded 562 classes of S&P-rated RMBS transactions backed by first lien subprime loans between 4Q 2005 and 4Q 2006
      • $6.3 billion in securities represent only 1.1% of the total first lien loans
    • S&P downgraded 418 classes of S&P-rated RMBS transactions backed by closed-end second liens
      • Represent $3.8 billion, or 6.1% of this class
50
Standard & Poor’s
analysis of credit markets
  • Result of first lien subprime downgrades
    • 74 synthetic CDOs downgraded
    • 19 classes of cash flow and hybrid CDOs placed on CreditWatch negative
    • An additional 33 tranches from 8 U.S. cash flow and hybrid CDOs ($1.76 billion) placed on CreditWatch negative
  • Result of second lien subprime downgrades
    • 17 classes of cash flow and hybrid CDOs placed on CreditWatch negative
51
Standard & Poor’s
analysis of credit markets
  • Downgrades on first lien subprime collateral did not impact any AAA ratings
  • Eight classes of AAA second lien RMBS downgraded
    • No ratings fell below investment-grade
  • S&P will monitor these issues and take further ratings actions as deemed appropriate
52
Standard & Poor’s
analysis of credit markets
  • Keeping market informed of S&P decisions
    • Provided S&P’s approach for rating new CDOs containing RMBS securities backed by non-prime collateral
    • Currently reviewing RMBS transactions backed by Alt-A and net interest margin collateral
      • Will be completed in next several weeks
53
Standard & Poor’s
analysis of credit markets
  • Keeping market informed of S&P decisions
    • Monitoring transactions issued after January 2007 under new assumptions
      • Will take such rating actions as we deem appropriate as more loss data becomes available
    • Loans made prior to January 2005 are not at same level or risk as those made since then
54
Standard & Poor’s
analysis of credit markets
  • Our role: Provide an independent opinion on creditworthiness based on demonstrable facts
    • May put S&P at odds with market sentiment
    • S&P takes longer term view and does what it believes is right for the market
55
McGraw-Hill Education

Financial Services

Information & Media
56
Information & Media
  • 2Q 2007 segment results
    • Revenue + 4.7% to $249.9 million
    • Operating profit + 13.1% to $14.7 million
    • Operating margin 5.9%
57
Business-to-Business Group
  • Revenue grew 7.9% in 2Q to $223.1 million
  • Group includes our best-known brands
    • J.D. Power and Associates
    • Platts
    • BusinessWeek
    • McGraw-Hill Construction
    • Aviation Week
  • Key contributors
    • Sweets transformation
    • Growth in Platts’ news and pricing services for oil, natural gas and power markets
58
Listening to the
Voice of the Customer
  • J.D. Power and Associates benefited from:
    • New studies in financial services and healthcare sectors
    • Increased penetration from existing studies
59
The transformation
of Information & Media
  • BusinessWeek’s global print edition off 20.0% in 2Q, according to Publishers Information Bureau
  • BusinessWeek.com continues to expand
    • New Company Insight Center is utilizing
      Capital IQ’s extensive database of company fundamental data
    • Search traffic has been growing steadily
60
Broadcasting Group
  • Revenue declined by 16.0% to $26.8 million in 2Q
    • Non-election year
    • Automotive off sharply
  • 3Q pacing is currently off 4%
    • May see political advertising in second half
61
Outlook for
Information & Media
  • Summary
    • A soft year in advertising
    • Growth in information services
    • Margin expansion for the full year
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Summing up for
The McGraw-Hill Companies
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Outlook for
The McGraw-Hill Companies
  • Summary
    • We expect to achieve goal of double-digit earnings growth in 2007, even though growth rate will probably slow during second half as compared to very strong first-half performance
    • We expect low double-digit growth from Financial Services in second half, tougher comparisons will make fourth quarter more challenging
    • Some operating margin compression may occur in our segments in second half
    • We still expect improved operating margins in all three segments for full year
64
Robert J. Bahash
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
The McGraw-Hill Companies
65
Increased share repurchase authorization for 2007
  • New 2007 repurchase authorization: Up to 30 million shares
    • In April, Board of Directors approved an increase of up to an additional 15 million shares
  • 2Q 2007: 6.3 million shares repurchased for $431.6 million
    • 19.5 million shares repurchased in first half
  • Capacity:
    • Half a million shares remaining in 2006 buyback program
    • 45 million shares in new program authorized by Board in January 2007
66
A commitment to
advancing total shareholder value
  • Since 1996, returned $7.3 billion to MHP shareholders through dividends and share repurchases
    • Includes more than $1.4 billion returned in first half of 2007
67
Reduced fully-diluted
weighted average shares outstanding
  • 2Q 2007: 350.3 million shares
    • 15.2 million share decrease compared to 2Q 2006
    • 11.2 million share decrease compared to 1Q 2007
68
Ramped up our borrowings
  • Increased borrowing to fund additional share repurchases and seasonal cash requirements
  • 2Q 2007: $636 million net debt position,
    up from $178 million at end of first quarter
    • As of June 30: On a gross basis, debt position is $994.5 million offset by $358.1 million in cash, primarily foreign holdings
    • Debt reflects diversified mix of short-term borrowings in the commercial paper, extendible commercial note, and money market loan markets
69
Outlook for interest expense
  • 2Q 2007: $12.1 million net interest expense
    • A $3.5 million increase compared to last year due to increased borrowing
  • If we complete full 30 million share repurchase program for 2007, will be in a net debt position at year end
  • 2007: Expected in the range of $40-42 million
    • Higher than previous estimate of $24-26 million, due primarily to additional 15 million in assumed share repurchases
70
Revenue recognition
and transformation of Sweets
  • Transformed Sweets from a primarily print catalog into a bundled print and online service in 2006
  • Associated accounting change benefits year-over-year comparison for Information & Media segment
  • 2Q 2007 results reflect:
    • $6.5 million of incremental revenue
    • $5.8 million of incremental operating profit
71
Corporate expenses
  • 2Q 2007: Increased $6.9 million or 20.1%, compared to a year ago
  • Categories within corporate expense that increased:
      • New Business Process Management program
      • Incentive compensation
      • Corporate advertising
      • Vacant space from downsizing
72
Outlook for tax rate
  • 2Q 2007: Effective tax rate 37.5%
  • 2007: We expect to maintain this rate for balance of year
73
Outlook for
prepublication investments
  • 2Q 2007: $75.2 million, compared to $63.5 million for same period last year
  • 2007: Continue to expect $310 million
74
Growth in capital expenditures
for property and equipment
  • 2Q 2007: $60.7 million, compared to $20.5 million for same period last year
    • Construction of new data center is underway
    • Making technology investments to digitize our products and services
  • 2007: Continue to expect $250 million
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Outlook for
non-cash items
  • Amortization of prepublication costs
    • 2Q 2007:  $56.8 million, compared to $53.0 million in same period last year
      • Ramped up publishing schedule last year in anticipation of strong el-hi adoptions


    • 2007: Continue to expect $260 million
76
Outlook for
non-cash items
  • Depreciation
    • 2Q 2007:  $28.8 million, compared to $28.3 million in same period last year


    • 2007: Continue to expect $130 million, reflecting higher level of capital expenditures in 2007 and full year of depreciation from 2006 capital expenditures
77
Outlook for
non-cash items
  • Amortization of intangibles
    • 2Q 2007:  $11.5 million, compared to $12.1 million in same period last year


    • 2007:  Continue to expect $50 million
78
Increase in unearned revenue
  • Unearned revenue
    • 2Q 2007:  Grew to over $1 billion
      • Up from $893 million in prior year, an approximate 15% increase
      • Increase would have been larger excluding a mutual fund data business that was divested in March 2007
79
2Q 2007 Earnings Call
July 24, 2007
80
2Q 2007 Earnings Call
July 24, 2007
  • Replay Options (Available from July 24-31)


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