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- Presenters:
- Harold McGraw III
Chairman, President and CEO
- Robert J. Bahash
Executive Vice President and CFO
- Vickie Tillman
Executive Vice President, Standard & Poor’s
- Donald S. Rubin
Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
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- This presentation includes certain forward-looking statements about the
Company’s businesses, new products, sales, expenses, tax rates, cash
flows and operating and capital requirements. Such forward-looking
statements include, but are not limited to: the strength and
sustainability of the U.S. and global economy; Educational Publishing’s
level of success in 2007 adoptions and in open territories and
enrollment and demographic trends; the level of educational funding; the
level of education technology investments; the strength of School
Education, Higher Education, Professional and International publishing
markets and the impact of technology on them; the level of interest
rates and the strength of the economic recovery, profit levels and the
capital markets in the U.S. and abroad; the level of success of new
product development and global expansion and strength of domestic and
international markets; the demand and market for debt ratings, including
collateralized debt obligations (CDO), residential mortgage and
asset-backed securities and related asset classes; the regulatory
environment affecting Standard & Poor’s; the level of merger and
acquisition activity in the U.S. and abroad; the strength of the
domestic and international advertising markets; the volatility of the
energy marketplace; the contract value of public works, manufacturing
and single-family unit construction; the level of political advertising;
and the level of future cash flow, debt levels, product-related
manufacturing expenses, pension expense, distribution expenses, postal
rates, prepublication, amortization and depreciation expense, income tax
rates, capital, technology, restructuring charges and other expenditures
and prepublication cost investment.
- Actual results may differ materially from those in any forward-looking
statements because any such statements involve risks and uncertainties
and are subject to change based upon various important factors,
including, but not limited to, worldwide economic, financial, political
and regulatory conditions; currency and foreign exchange volatility; the
health of capital and equity markets, including future interest rate
changes and concerns regarding the credit quality of subprime mortgages
adversely impacting future debt issuances of U.S. residential mortgage
backed securities and CDOs backed by subprime residential mortgages and
related asset classes; the implementation of an expanded regulatory
scheme affecting Standard & Poor’s ratings and services; the level
of funding in the education market (both domestically and
internationally); the pace of recovery in advertising; continued
investment by the construction, computer and aviation industries; the
successful marketing of new products, and the effect of competitive
products and pricing.
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- EPS
- 2Q 2007: Increased 31.7% to $0.79
- Revenue
- 2Q 2007: Increased 12.5% to $1.7 billion
- Margin improvement in all three segments
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- Inflation remains moderate at 2.2%
- U.S. GDP now growing at 2.1% for 2007
- David Wyss, S&P’s chief economist, believes housing prices knocked 1
percentage point off GDP growth in 2007
- Losses may not hit peak until late 2008 or early 2009
- Non-residential construction continues to do well
- State budgets in good shape, which is good for education
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- 2Q 2007 segment results
- Revenue + 5.8% to $647.3 million
- Operating profit Increased by 18.6% to
$80.4 million
- Operating margin 12.4%
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- School Education Group
- Revenue + 3.3% to $403.3 million
- Higher Education, Professional
and International Group
- Revenue + 10.3% to $244.0 million
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- We are building for a promising future
- Contrast with industry in flux:
- Changes in ownership
- Changes in organization
- Consolidation reduces number of major competitors from four to three in
el-hi market
- We expect to gain share in 2007 in el-hi and U.S. college and university
markets
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- Created a single, well-coordinated K-12 team last Fall under direction
of most experienced and successful managers
- We’re improving our performance in both K-5 and 6-12 markets
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- Broad and deep product line-up is helping us perform well in academic
and non-academic subjects
- Achieving high market share in non-academic subjects
- Health
- Business education
- Technical and vocational education
- Family and consumer science
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- 2006: Competed for about 80% of available dollars in state new adoption
market
- 2007: We have products for virtually the entire state new adoption
market
- We expect to take more than 30% of available dollars in total state new
adoption market
- Math and science offer biggest opportunities this year
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- Results driven by
- 6-12 Texas math
- K-12 California science
- K-8 South Carolina science
- Optimistic about performance of Treasures
- Competing well in Indiana, Tennessee and Oregon
- Picking up new business in second year of California’s K-8 social
studies adoption
- Outlook promising in 6-12 literature and reading market in Indiana,
Oregon, Tennessee, and West Virginia
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- Won major adoptions in large urban markets
- Most small- and medium-sized districts don’t order until 3Q
- We expect open territory market to grow about 4% this year
- New edition of Everyday Mathematics will help us achieve open territory
goals
- Generating new business in Philadelphia, New York City, Seattle
- We should be a leader in K-5 New Mexico adoption
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- Market has been soft this year but supplemental tends to be a
second-half business
- We have created a strong line-up to meet need for targeted skills-based
intervention programs
- Needed for both elementary and 6-12 students
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- Softness in custom and shelf products in 2Q
- Getting traction with Acuity, our new formative testing product
- Suite of diagnostic and predictive benchmark assessments
- Won 5-year, $80 million arrangement with New York City—largest
formative contract awarded in U.S.
- Also selected by Indianapolis, IN and Mesa, AZ
- Acuity Algebra selected by RAND Corporation for
five-year study being funded by U.S. Department of Education
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- Three major imprints performing well
- Science, Engineering and Math
- Business and Economics
- Humanities, Social Sciences and Languages
- Digital products producing incremental revenue
- Homework management products give students access to interactive online
textbooks
- New iPod and MP3 compatible features in media-enhanced texts proving
popular with students
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- 2Q 2007 benefited from publication of 10th edition of Encyclopedia
of Science and Technology, issued every five years
- 20-volume work is selling well here and abroad
- Other best-sellers in professional markets
- Harrison’s Manual of Medicine, 16th Edition
- The Millionaire Maker’s Guide to Creating a Cash Machine for Life
- Nursing Spectrum Drug Handbook 2008
- Current Medical Diagnosis and Treatment, 2007, 46th Edition
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- A solid year is taking shape in education
- El-hi market expected to grow 5% to 7%
- U.S. college and university expected to grow about 4%
- We expect to outperform in both markets
- We anticipate margin expansion for the segment for the full year
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- 2Q 2007 segment results
- Revenue +21.2% to $821.0 million
- Operating profit +27.9% to $401.4 million
- Operating margin 48.9%
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- Unique blend of fixed income and equity services reduce our dependency
on any single asset class
- Financial Services’ strong and growing position in international markets
- Growing array of new services in both fixed income and equity markets
- Durability of powerful growth trends in our markets
- Securitization, globalization, privatization and disintermediation
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- International markets grew at double-digit rate
- 38.9% of ratings revenue in 2Q, up from 36.6% for same period a year
ago
- U.S. corporates set a new record for issuance for second quarter in a
row
- U.S. investment-grade up 33.0%
- High-yield up 42.6%
- Public finance grew solidly because of new money issuance and refundings
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- Structured finance globally strong despite 12.4% decline in dollar
volume issuance in U.S. residential mortgage-backed securities
- Strength in European residential mortgage-backed securities
- Solid performances in all asset classes in Europe
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- Commercial mortgage-backed securities market grew solidly here and
abroad
- U.S. CDO market met our expectations; issuance grew 58% in 2Q
- Asset-backed securities market saw more modest gains
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- Ratings and services not directly linked to public new issuance also
grew at double-digit rate in 2Q
- Accounted for 22.6% of ratings revenue in 2Q compared to 24.1% in same
period last year
- Bank loans a key driver
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- Capital IQ product continues to grow rapidly
- Approximately 2,000 clients—a 29% increase over prior year
- Acquisition of ClariFi strengthens our position
- Good growth in data and information market from:
- Compustat
- RatingsDirect
- RatingsXpress
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- $178.6 billion in assets under management in ETFs based on S&P
indices at end of June 2007
- 20.9% increase compared to June 2006
- 127 ETFs linked to S&P indices
- 30 launched so far this year
- S&P/Citigroup Indices form backbone for creating new customized
indices, benchmarks
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- Successfully licensing recently acquired commodity indices from Goldman
Sachs
- Morgan Stanley
- Barclays Bank
- Deutsche Bank
- National Bank of Canada
- UBS
- Wachovia
- Cargill
- Pipeline is growing
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- We expect low double-digit growth in second half
- Tougher comparisons in 4Q
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- Corporate issuance off to strong start in 2007
- Large new-issue calendar
- Attractive financing environment
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- Dollar volume issuance started on an upswing at start of year
- We expect somewhat slower growth for balance of 2007
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- Dollar volume issuance off 11.6% in first half
- Further decline
in second half
- Dollar volume
issuance could
decline by 15%
to 20% in 2007
- Potential deals
on hold as issuers
reprice to new criteria
and gauge market’s
appetite for RMBS
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- Market up 36.8% in first half, driven by low interest rates and strong
commercial real estate fundamentals
- Pipeline is robust
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- Dollar volume issuance up 22.5% in first half
- Pipeline looks solid
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- Soared last year and off to fast start in 2007
- Expect more growth in CDO market in second half, but at rates well below
blistering pace established in third and fourth quarters last year
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- Pipeline looks very good
- Expect solid second half with all asset classes showing strength with
the toughest comparison coming in 4Q
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- We expect a solid second half in 2007
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- Summary
- Continued strength overseas
- More growth in structured market
- Solid prospects in the corporate market
- Growing contributions from data, information and indices
- Low double-digit growth in second half, tougher comparison in 4Q
- Margin expansion for the full year
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- From June 2007 decision:
- “Imposing such liability would
open the floodgates of litigation against credit rating agencies by
disappointed investors and creditors and chill the agencies from vital
and vigorous participation in the ratings process and the marketplace,
where the free flow of information and conflicting views ideally
establish reliability.”
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- More than a year ago, S&P identified the deterioration in RMBS
securities backed by subprime loans credit quality and began signaling
the market
- In June, S&P signaled potential emerging issues with the
collateralized loan obligations
- The covenant-lite juggernaut is raising CLO risks
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- S&P does not structure or engineer transactions nor does it
arbitrate on which deals can or cannot proceed
- S&P guidelines and criteria are publicly available
- 4. Tightening criteria may have an adverse impact on market share
- Nevertheless, S&P adjusts criteria to reflect how changing
conditions impact credit risk to maintain an excellent track record
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- Performance of S&P’s structured finance ratings has been
exceptionally strong
- 0.87% average five-year default rate for investment-grade structured
finance securities
- 15.42% average five-year default rate for speculative-grade
structured securities
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- In April 2006, S&P identified heightened credit exposure of
affordability products with layering of multiple risk factors in loan
programs
- S&P adjusted its assumptions
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- S&P’s concern: Duration and severity of issues affecting future
credit performance
- Need sufficient time and data to see how collateral pools are
performing
- S&P’s recent actions on RMBS transactions are a continuation of
applying adjusted assumptions to delinquency default and loss trends
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- Actions in July:
- S&P downgraded 562 classes of S&P-rated RMBS transactions
backed by first lien subprime loans between 4Q 2005 and 4Q 2006
- $6.3 billion in securities represent only 1.1% of the total first lien
loans
- S&P downgraded 418 classes of S&P-rated RMBS transactions
backed by closed-end second liens
- Represent $3.8 billion, or 6.1% of this class
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- Result of first lien subprime downgrades
- 74 synthetic CDOs downgraded
- 19 classes of cash flow and hybrid CDOs placed on CreditWatch negative
- An additional 33 tranches from 8 U.S. cash flow and hybrid CDOs ($1.76
billion) placed on CreditWatch negative
- Result of second lien subprime downgrades
- 17 classes of cash flow and hybrid CDOs placed on CreditWatch negative
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- Downgrades on first lien subprime collateral did not impact any AAA
ratings
- Eight classes of AAA second lien RMBS downgraded
- No ratings fell below investment-grade
- S&P will monitor these issues and take further ratings actions as
deemed appropriate
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- Keeping market informed of S&P decisions
- Provided S&P’s approach for rating new CDOs containing RMBS
securities backed by non-prime collateral
- Currently reviewing RMBS transactions backed by Alt-A and net interest
margin collateral
- Will be completed in next several weeks
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- Keeping market informed of S&P decisions
- Monitoring transactions issued after January 2007 under new assumptions
- Will take such rating actions as we deem appropriate as more loss data
becomes available
- Loans made prior to January 2005 are not at same level or risk as those
made since then
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- Our role: Provide an independent opinion on creditworthiness based on
demonstrable facts
- May put S&P at odds with market sentiment
- S&P takes longer term view and does what it believes is right for
the market
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- 2Q 2007 segment results
- Revenue + 4.7% to $249.9 million
- Operating profit + 13.1% to $14.7 million
- Operating margin 5.9%
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- Revenue grew 7.9% in 2Q to $223.1 million
- Group includes our best-known brands
- J.D. Power and Associates
- Platts
- BusinessWeek
- McGraw-Hill Construction
- Aviation Week
- Key contributors
- Sweets transformation
- Growth in Platts’ news and pricing services for oil, natural gas and
power markets
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- J.D. Power and Associates benefited from:
- New studies in financial services and healthcare sectors
- Increased penetration from existing studies
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- BusinessWeek’s global print edition off 20.0% in 2Q, according to
Publishers Information Bureau
- BusinessWeek.com continues to expand
- New Company Insight Center is utilizing
Capital IQ’s extensive database of company fundamental data
- Search traffic has been growing steadily
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- Revenue declined by 16.0% to $26.8 million in 2Q
- Non-election year
- Automotive off sharply
- 3Q pacing is currently off 4%
- May see political advertising in second half
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- Summary
- A soft year in advertising
- Growth in information services
- Margin expansion for the full year
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- Summary
- We expect to achieve goal of double-digit earnings growth in 2007, even
though growth rate will probably slow during second half as compared to
very strong first-half performance
- We expect low double-digit growth from Financial Services in second
half, tougher comparisons will make fourth quarter more challenging
- Some operating margin compression may occur in our segments in second
half
- We still expect improved operating margins in all three segments for
full year
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- New 2007 repurchase authorization: Up to 30 million shares
- In April, Board of Directors approved an increase of up to an
additional 15 million shares
- 2Q 2007: 6.3 million shares repurchased for $431.6 million
- 19.5 million shares repurchased in first half
- Capacity:
- Half a million shares remaining in 2006 buyback program
- 45 million shares in new program authorized by Board in January 2007
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- Since 1996, returned $7.3 billion to MHP shareholders through dividends
and share repurchases
- Includes more than $1.4 billion returned in first half of 2007
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- 2Q 2007: 350.3 million shares
- 15.2 million share decrease compared to 2Q 2006
- 11.2 million share decrease compared to 1Q 2007
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- Increased borrowing to fund additional share repurchases and seasonal
cash requirements
- 2Q 2007: $636 million net debt position,
up from $178 million at end of first quarter
- As of June 30: On a gross basis, debt position is $994.5 million offset
by $358.1 million in cash, primarily foreign holdings
- Debt reflects diversified mix of short-term borrowings in the
commercial paper, extendible commercial note, and money market loan
markets
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- 2Q 2007: $12.1 million net interest expense
- A $3.5 million increase compared to last year due to increased
borrowing
- If we complete full 30 million share repurchase program for 2007, will
be in a net debt position at year end
- 2007: Expected in the range of $40-42 million
- Higher than previous estimate of $24-26 million, due primarily to
additional 15 million in assumed share repurchases
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- Transformed Sweets from a primarily print catalog into a bundled print
and online service in 2006
- Associated accounting change benefits year-over-year comparison for
Information & Media segment
- 2Q 2007 results reflect:
- $6.5 million of incremental revenue
- $5.8 million of incremental operating profit
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- 2Q 2007: Increased $6.9 million or 20.1%, compared to a year ago
- Categories within corporate expense that increased:
- New Business Process Management program
- Incentive compensation
- Corporate advertising
- Vacant space from downsizing
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- 2Q 2007: Effective tax rate 37.5%
- 2007: We expect to maintain this rate for balance of year
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- 2Q 2007: $75.2 million, compared to $63.5 million for same period last
year
- 2007: Continue to expect $310 million
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- 2Q 2007: $60.7 million, compared to $20.5 million for same period last
year
- Construction of new data center is underway
- Making technology investments to digitize our products and services
- 2007: Continue to expect $250 million
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- Amortization of prepublication costs
- 2Q 2007: $56.8 million, compared
to $53.0 million in same period last year
- Ramped up publishing schedule last year in anticipation of strong
el-hi adoptions
- 2007: Continue to expect $260 million
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- Depreciation
- 2Q 2007: $28.8 million, compared
to $28.3 million in same period last year
- 2007: Continue to expect $130 million, reflecting higher level of
capital expenditures in 2007 and full year of depreciation from 2006
capital expenditures
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- Amortization of intangibles
- 2Q 2007: $11.5 million, compared
to $12.1 million in same period last year
- 2007: Continue to expect $50
million
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- Unearned revenue
- 2Q 2007: Grew to over $1 billion
- Up from $893 million in prior year, an approximate 15% increase
- Increase would have been larger excluding a mutual fund data business
that was divested in March 2007
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- Replay Options (Available from July 24-31)
- Telephone
- Domestic: 866-511-5160
- International: +1-203-369-1959
- No password required
- Internet
- Go to www.mcgraw-hill.com/investor_relations
- Click on the Earnings Announcement link under
Investor Presentation Webcasts
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