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- Executive Vice President and CFO
The McGraw-Hill Companies
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- This presentation includes certain forward-looking statements about the
Company’s businesses, new products, sales, expenses, tax rates, cash
flows and operating and capital requirements. Such forward-looking
statements include, but are not limited to: the strength and
sustainability of the U.S. and global economy; Educational Publishing’s
level of success in 2007 adoptions and in open territories and
enrollment and demographic trends; the level of educational funding; the
level of education technology investments; the strength of School
Education, Higher Education, Professional and International publishing
markets and the impact of technology on them; the level of interest
rates and the strength of the economic recovery, profit levels and the
capital markets in the U.S. and abroad; the level of success of new
product development and global expansion and strength of domestic and
international markets; the demand and market for debt ratings, including
collateralized debt obligations (CDO), residential mortgage and
asset-backed securities and related asset classes; the regulatory
environment affecting Standard & Poor’s; the level of merger and
acquisition activity in the U.S. and abroad; the strength of the
domestic and international advertising markets; the volatility of the
energy marketplace; the contract value of public works, manufacturing
and single-family unit construction; the level of political advertising;
and the level of future cash flow, debt levels, product-related
manufacturing expenses, pension expense, distribution expenses, postal
rates, prepublication, amortization and depreciation expense, income tax
rates, capital, technology, restructuring charges and other expenditures
and prepublication cost investment.
- Actual results may differ materially from those in any forward-looking
statements because any such statements involve risks and uncertainties
and are subject to change based upon various important factors,
including, but not limited to, worldwide economic, financial, political
and regulatory conditions; currency and foreign exchange volatility; the
health of capital and equity markets, including future interest rate
changes and concerns regarding the credit quality of subprime mortgages
adversely impacting future debt issuances of U.S. residential mortgage
backed securities and CDOs backed by subprime residential mortgages and
related asset classes; the implementation of an expanded regulatory
scheme affecting Standard & Poor’s ratings and services; the level
of funding in the education market (both domestically and
internationally); the pace of recovery in advertising; continued
investment by the construction, computer and aviation industries; the
successful marketing of new products, and the effect of competitive
products and pricing.
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- Still expect to achieve a goal of double-digit earnings growth for year
even though rate of growth is expected to slow during second half of
year as compared to very strong first-half performance
- Still expect improved operating margins in McGraw-Hill Education and
Financial Services for full year. Margin improvement at Information
& Media more problematic due to a softer advertising market.
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- Guidance excludes:
- $0.04 charge for elimination of restoration stock option program in
first quarter of 2006
- $0.06 charge for restructuring in second half of 2006
- $0.03 gain from divestiture of a mutual fund data business at Financial
Services in first quarter of 2007
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- McGraw-Hill Education: Expect a double-digit revenue increase in 3Q
- Financial Services: Anticipate year-over-year 9-to-12% top-line and
double-digit bottom-line growth in 3Q
- Information & Media: Will continue to battle impact of soft
advertising market in 3Q
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- Uncertainty about 4Q, particularly in Financial Services
- Financial Services faces toughest comparisons of the year
- 4Q 2006 revenue grew by 22.1%
- Market is showing greater deceleration than originally expected
- If it continues, we anticipate flat to declining revenue in 4Q and a
reduction in operating profit versus last year
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- McGraw-Hill Education: 4Q is seasonally less robust
- Operating margin will be influenced by increased amortization and
investments in important digital initiatives for Higher Education,
Professional and International Group
- Segment’s operating margins mixed in 4Q
- McGraw-Hill Education and Financial Services: We expect lower
year-over-year operating margins
- Information & Media: Could be an up tick in operating margin; too
close to call at this time
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- Housing recession has another year to run
- Downturn has reduced U.S. GDP by nearly one percentage point over last
four quarters
- Decline in housing prices and sales may bottom out late next spring or
summer
- Recovery in new starts will take longer
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- S&P’s chief economist David Wyss expects U.S. GDP to grow
- Wyss expects Fed to cut interest rates
- At meeting today
- Again in October
- Maybe for third time in December or January 2008
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- Market is seeing classic end-of-cycle problems
- Looser lending practices in mortgage market
- Deterioration of subprime credit performance
- Standard & Poor’s has not escaped impact of these events
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- Original forecast: Double-digit top- and bottom-line growth for
Financial Services even though new dollar volume issuance for U.S. RMBS
market would be off 10% to 15% in 2007
- U.S. RMBS market continues to deteriorate
- Now anticipate 30% to 35% decline for year and more than 60% decline in
fourth quarter
- 3Q 2007: Still expect Financial Services to produce 9% to 12% revenue
growth and a double-digit increase in operating profit growth
- 2007: We expect double-digit top- and bottom-line growth for the year
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- Fourth quarter will not end strongly: Credit quality concerns adversely
impact market
- Investors re-evaluating and re-pricing risk
- Some issuers are finding it more difficult to sell new issues
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- July: Some strength in new issue dollar volume for U.S. structured
finance
- August: Growth slowed in some instruments; rate of decline accelerated
in others
- New issuance dollar volume for
U.S. structured finance
- (% change) July August
- ABS + 111% - 22%
- RMBS - 31% - 60%
- CMBS + 263% + 75%
- CDOs + 40% + 35%
- Corporates - 31% + 16%
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- We expect decline in U.S. structured finance to continue into September
and 4Q
- Corporates: Some strength, particularly in investment-grade, but a
decline in speculative issuance
- U.S. structured finance: Continued weakness, challenging comparisons
- International: Activity marginally better than U.S.
- Non-traditional ratings: Continued growth
- Data & Information and Index Services: Continued growth
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- Diversified revenue stream
- Products and services
- Geography
- Fee structures
- Large number of debt rating clients are on annual fee programs
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- Diversification evident in strong growth of Corporation’s unearned
revenue
- Grew to more than $1 billion at end of 2Q, an increase of approximately
15% compared to same period last year
- Largely driven by Financial Services
- Recognized on straight-line basis, mostly over 12-month period
- Underscores our long-term strategic emphasis on diversification and
resilience
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- Strategy has made S&P more global
- International revenue accounts for
38% of ratings’ total in 1H 2007 vs. 21% in 1994
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- Strategy has made S&P more global
- S&P rates a growing array of instruments not tied to new issuance
- Non-traditional products and services in 1H 2007 were 24% of ratings
revenue vs. only 8% in 1994
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- Strategy has reduced S&P’s dependency on transaction volume
- Transaction revenue now 51% of 1H 2007 revenue vs. 60% in 1994
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- Reduced revenue will have impact on incentive compensation
- Will examine:
- Discretionary expenses
- Staffing and hiring
- Leveraging of S&P’s global network
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- Development of new workflow portals that aggregate critical information
in one place for rating analysts
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- S&P’s ratings and analyses available free to global financial
community in real-time
- S&P publicly issues between 500 and 1,000 ratings opinions across
the globe
- Today, S&P has more than 1.2 million public and private opinions on
debt outstanding
- Most are available free at www.standardandpoors.com
- Investors can access up to 9 million current and historical ratings on
RatingsDirect
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- S&P communicates with the market so ratings are understood
- Hosts conferences, seminars and teleconferences
- Publishes articles explaining assumptions, methodologies, criteria
guidelines, transition studies, and performance data on our rating
opinions
- Institutional safeguards ensure independence and integrity of those
opinions
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- A rating is an impartial, independent opinion on credit quality of bonds
and likelihood that investors will be paid interest and principal in a
timely fashion
- Ratings are decided by committees at S&P--not by individual analysts
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- Rating the ultimate credit risk is not the same as pricing the bond
- Credit ratings do not fluctuate like bond prices
- Bond prices are anticipatory
- Bond ratings are based upon current and expected credit performance
- Ratings are designed to be stable
- We are not operating a buy/sell/hold business
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- We do not structure transactions or determine which deals can or cannot
proceed
- We are not investment advisors or consultants
- Standard & Poor’s applies its own pre-determined and
publicly-available criteria and assumptions to the facts presented
- Dialogue with bond issuers is necessary
- Helps issuers understand our ratings criteria
- Helps S&P understand the structured security so it can arrive at
better informed opinions
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- Problems in subprime market didn’t develop overnight
- By early 2006 S&P was informing the market about growing risk
- April 2006 S&P raised level of credit support required for riskier
subprime deals
- S&P continues to comment on those risks today
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- S&P does not rate every deal that reaches our door
- Does not rate instruments that fail to meet its criteria
- Claims of potential conflicts of interest with issuer pay model fail the
test of our own self-interest
- Excellent long-term track record of assessing risk has
90-year history
- It is not in our economic interest to compromise the integrity of a
rating
- Reviews by regulators in past five years conclude that rating agencies
appear “relatively responsive to reputation concerns and so protect the
interest of investors”
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- S&P has an exceptionally strong record on ultimate measure of
ratings effectiveness
- Since 1978, average 5-year default rate for investment-grade structured
securities is less than 1% and just over 15% for speculative-grade
securities
- Since 1978, average 1-year default rate for investment-grade structured
securities is near zero (0.04%) and 2.33% for speculative-grade
securities
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- Understanding S&P’s recent downgrades
- Downgrades affected approximately 1% of $565.3 billion in first-lien
subprime residential mortgage-backed securities rated between 4Q 2005
and end of 2006
- S&P will continue to assess ongoing creditworthiness of these
securities
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- Long-standing, strong legal precedent in favor of rating agencies
- Has been established over many years in a broad array of cases
- Ratings are opinions and are protected under the First Amendment
- On August 23, 2007, a federal court of appeals ruled a credit rating “is
a predictive opinion, dependent on a subjective and discretionary
weighing of complex factors”
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- Federal statutes make it clear that legal claims against rating agencies
are not at all favored
- New Credit Rating Agency Reform Act of 2006 unambiguously provides that
it does not diminish or affect existing rights and privileges under
existing law of any sort
- We are working with the SEC as it undertakes new responsibilities
Congress has given Commission
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- Globalization of financial markets
- Securitization
- Disintermediation of banks in favor of public markets
- Privatization
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- We expect year-over-year 9% to 12% revenue growth and a double-digit
increase in operating profit in 3Q
- Against tough comparisons, we expect flat to declining revenue and a
reduction in operating profit in 4Q
- For the year, we expect double-digit top- and bottom-line growth
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- Changes in ownership
- Changes in organization within companies
- Consolidation will reduce major elementary-high school competitors from
four to three
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- Measuring 3Q performance
- Typically produces more than 40% of Education segment’s annual revenue
and practically all its operating profit
- We expect a double-digit revenue increase from our Education segment in
third quarter
- Both the School Education Group and Higher Education, Professional and
International Groups are projecting improvement over 2006
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- Key revenue months (July, August) are behind us
- Adoption states still ordering materials in non-core curriculum in
health, music, and art – important markets for us
- Open territory orders are also continuing
- Volume of business will be important factor in our final results
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- State new adoption market: We expect to capture 30% and possibly more in
this market which is growing 10% to 15% this year
- Will show solid results in:
- Texas 6-12 math adoption
- K-8 science in California and South Carolina
- Treasures is winning significant market share in Indiana, Oregon,
Tennessee
- Spotlight on Music will lead the market
- Six adoption states buying our program
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- We are benefiting from number of large adoptions announced earlier this
year
- Science in New York City and Washington, DC
- K-5 music in St. Louis, MO and Prince George’s County, MD
- New edition of Everyday Math performing well across the country
- Through July, industry’s basal sales in open territory down 3.7%, well
short of +4% growth forecasted
- Late ordering pattern could produce some improvement
- We are doing better than industry; expect to continue
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- 3Q less pivotal in testing market
- We have seen:
- An increase in custom work
- Promising gains in formative market for our new Acuity product
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- We expect to gain market share in 2007
- Anticipating increases in all three imprints
- Business and Economics
- Science, Engineering and Math
- Humanities, Social Sciences and Languages
- Custom products showing solid growth across disciplines
- International performance is encouraging
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- Double-digit revenue increase in 3Q is taking shape
- We expect to gain share in both the elementary-high school and higher
education markets
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- Board of Directors authorized the purchase of up to 30 million shares
this year
- Bought back 19.5 million shares by the end of first half
- Completed authorized program by buying 10.5 million shares in 3Q
- 2007 share repurchases resulted in return of nearly $1.9 billion to
shareholders
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- We expect to achieve our goal of double-digit earnings for the year even
though the rate of growth is expected to slow during second half of year
as compared to our very strong first-half performance
- We still expect improved operating margins at McGraw-Hill Education and
Financial Services for the full year. Margin improvement at Information
& Media is more problematic due to a softer advertising market
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