A New Kind of Industry Cycle
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
16,000,000
18,000,000
20,000,000
50
53
56
59
62
65
68
71
74
77
80
83
86
89
92
95
98
01
U.S. Light Vehicle Sales
1955 -1958
-35%
1973-1975
-23%
OPEC
1978-1982
-31%
OPEC II
1988-1991
-20%
Gulf War
03
Source: Merrill Lynch
Last four downturns averaged -27%
Peak-to-Trough Patterns Since 1950
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