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1
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2
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- Vertical Integration
- Product Diversification
- Global Geographic Dispersion
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3
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- Global Liquidity Crisis has Frozen the Steel Markets
- Vicious Downward Spiral of Confidence
- Supply, Including Inventories, Exceeds Apparent (or Willing) Demand
- Major Focus is Inventory Reduction and Cash Generation
- Major Steel Production Cutbacks, 30-50% Depending on Markets
- Sharp Price Declines Appear to be Easing
- Project Delays, Cancellations More Frequent
- Contract Cancellations, Market Claims, Price Renegotiations at
Unprecedented Levels
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4
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- Ferrous Scrap Prices, After Free Falling ($480/LT Drop July –
November), Now Stabilizing
- Ferrous Scrap Flows Dramatic Slowing
- Low Prices Impact Collection
- Winter Approaching
- U.S. Steel Mills Driving Down Inventories – Major Announced
Production Cutbacks
- Rebar Fabrication Backlogs Declining
- Many Small Jobs (200-700 Tons) Being Bid But Larger Jobs are Scarce
- Service Centers Living Hand-to-Mouth; Buying from Mills’
Inventories
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5
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- Rebar Imports Well Down
- Only 20,000 MT Imported in November
- Only 79,000 MT/Month Average YTD 2008
- Latest Turkish Offers Approximately US $500/MT Houston Not Attractive
- Long Lead Times
- Must Commit to Larger Quantities
- Volatility Scrap / Domestic Rebar Prices
- Credit / Working Capital Constraints
- Strengthening US$ and Low Freight Rates Not Attracting Imports
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6
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- OCTG Imports Starting to Decline
- Raw Materials
- Copper Prices – Always a Bell Weather
- At $1.60 - $1.70 Per Pound
- Reflects Lower Demand
- China Starting to Buy Nonferrous Scrap Again – Positive Sign
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7
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- Mill Production Cutbacks and Inventory Reduction Programs Will Continue
into 2009
- Large Inventories Unsold Rebar in Middle East Markets
- Polish Government Stimulus Package and EU Funds for Infrastructure a
Positive for 2009
- Many Governments are Focusing on Infrastructure Spending in 2009 Which
Will Benefit Long Steel Products
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8
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- Reversal of Former Strategy to Control Overheating Economy / Inflation
- Target 8-9% GDP in 2009
- Fiscal Stimulus
- US $590 Billion Infrastructure Spending
- Focus Major Infrastructure Projects, Rail, Ports, Highways
- Focus Public Housing
- Lowering Taxes (Including Income Taxes?)
- Reducing Export Taxes
- Monetary
- Rapidly Cutting Interest Rates, Latest by 1.08%
- Providing More Export Subsidies
- Currency Now Depreciating to US$ (6.83-6.85)
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9
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- Steel Mills Cut Back Production 30-50%
- Long Products Demand and Prices Improving Slightly – Flat Products
Remain Weak
- Steel Mills Starting to Buy Imported Scrap
- Spot Iron Ore Prices now $70-73/MT (Bottom Mid November at $65/MT)
- Chinese Mills Only Buying on Spot Market – No One Buys at
Benchmark (Contract) Prices
- Large Inventory of Iron Ore at Ports (60-70 Million MT) Likely to Take
One to Two Quarters to be Significantly Reduced
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10
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- Global Government Intervention Programs Must be Effective
- Credit / Liquidity Issues to Ease
- Restoration of Confidence
- Demand to Exceed Production Cutbacks / Inventory Reductions
- Clear Direction and Action from New U.S. President / Administration
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11
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- Possible Capital / Infrastructure Stimulus
in the U.S.
- China’s Impact Will be Critical
- Infrastructure Spending
- Stimulus to Domestic Consumption
- Limited Steel Exports
- Positive Signs After Chinese New Year
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12
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13
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14
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