Perspectives on “Fuelling the Future”
- Coal and gas have provided almost all the demand growth (about 115,600 MW) over past decade, with coal actually out-stripping gas by a 1.2 to1 margin
- The huge capacity additions did not equate to demand, but rather depressed wholesale prices
- Environmental benefits and lower capital requirements have encouraged the growth in gas-fired capacity. Although large gas-fired capacity increments will be added, growth in gas consumption will lag as these gas increments are largely for peaking and cycling applications. Going forward, distributed generation (fuel cells and mini-turbines) will capture an increasing share of this gas capacity growth
- New nuclear and hydroelectric power plants are not on the horizon for the next decade, and even so, would not make a significant dent in the overall fuel mix
- The “other” category, namely renewable energy like biomass and wind generated power, will likely see significant growth rates, but remains a tiny part of the overall pie. Unfortunately, even if the government intervenes, renewable energy will only be able to supply a sliver of the total projected demand over the next 10-15 years