|
1
|
|
|
2
|
- Executive Vice President and CFO
The McGraw-Hill Companies
|
|
3
|
- This presentation includes certain forward-looking statements about the
Company’s businesses, new products, sales, expenses, cash flows and
operating and capital requirements. Such forward-looking statements
include, but are not limited to: the strength and sustainability of the
U.S. and global economy; Educational Publishing’s level of success in
2007 adoptions and enrollment and demographic trends; the level of
educational funding; the level of education technology investments; the
strength of Higher Education, Professional and International publishing
markets and the impact of technology on them; the level of interest
rates and the strength of the economy, profit levels and the capital
markets in the U.S. and abroad; the level of success of new product
development and global expansion and strength of domestic and
international markets; the demand and market for debt ratings, including
mortgage and asset-backed securities; the regulatory environment
affecting Standard & Poor’s; the strength of the U.S. and
international advertising markets; the volatility of the energy
marketplace; the contract value of public works, manufacturing and
single-family unit construction; the level of political advertising; and
the level of future cash flow, debt levels, product-related
manufacturing expenses, pension income/(expense), distribution expenses,
postal rates, amortization and depreciation expense, income tax rates,
capital, technology, and other expenditures and prepublication cost
investment.
- Actual results may differ materially from those in any forward-looking
statements because any such statements involve risks and uncertainties
and are subject to change based upon various important factors,
including, but not limited to, worldwide economic, financial, political
and regulatory conditions; currency and foreign exchange volatility; the
health of capital and equity markets, including future interest rate
changes; the implementation of an expanded regulatory scheme affecting
Standard & Poor’s ratings and services; the level of funding in the
education market (both U.S. and internationally); the pace of the
economy and in advertising; continued investment by the construction,
computer and aviation industries; the successful marketing of new
products, and the effect of competitive products and pricing.
|
|
4
|
- Double-digit earnings growth
- Growth and margin expansion from all three operating segments
- Includes double-digit top- and bottom-line increase from Financial
Services
|
|
5
|
- Education: Strong state new adoption calendar and growing global
opportunities
- Financial Services: Solid prospects in global markets
- Information & Media: Another year of progress in delivering higher
value-added products and services
|
|
6
|
- Dividend increased by 12.9% in 2007
- Grown at 10.4% CAGR since 1974
- Expect to repurchase up to 15 million shares in 2007 depending on market
conditions
- 20 million shares remaining from 2006 program
- In January 2007, Board authorized new buyback program of 45 million
shares
- Returned $5.9 billion to shareholders through dividend payments and
share buybacks since 1996
|
|
7
|
- Beat index by wide margin in 2006
|
|
8
|
- Corporations have record cash balances
- We expect increased capital spending
- Continued recovery in office building is good for our construction
business
- State budgets in good shape which benefits education
- Expect interest rate cut by Federal Reserve this summer; could be down
to about 4.5% rate by year end
- U.S. GDP to grow about 2.4% in 2007
|
|
9
|
|
|
10
|
- Old competitors are exiting
- New competitors are entering
- Some competitors are reorganizing
- The future favors experienced professionals who understand industry
dynamics and have plans in pace to realize new opportunities
|
|
11
|
- Education is a necessity
- Knowledge economy requires knowledge workers
- Trained minds are product of education
|
|
12
|
- Pre-K-12 market will be expanding through rest of decade
- State new adoption market projected to grow in 2007, 2008 and 2009
- Major purchasing schedule in core curriculum areas by the big adoption
states: Florida, California and Texas
|
|
13
|
- Pre-K-12 enrollments continue to grow through end of decade and beyond
- Public elementary and secondary enrollments will reach 51 million in
2015
- A 2.5 million, or 5.2% increase, over 2005
|
|
14
|
- Efforts to reform education have focused the nation’s attention on
achievement gaps
- Strong commitment to NCLB’s basic principles among public and both
parties in Congress
- Education high on agenda for all 50 states
- Should continue to see favorable funding environment
|
|
15
|
- Broad recognition in government and business that a skilled workforce is
necessary to compete in global economy
- Importance of math and science education
- Need for innovation
- Importance of education and lifelong learning to retain competitiveness
|
|
16
|
- Increasing our participation in a growing market
- Competed in 80% of state new adoption market in 2006
- Competing in virtually all of the state new adoption markets in 2007,
2008 and 2009
|
|
17
|
|
|
18
|
- Strengthened our position in el-hi
market by creating single basal operation last year
- Created unified K-12 centers of excellence for each curriculum area
- Unified K-12 sales and marketing teams under same management
- Changes helping improve top and bottom lines
|
|
19
|
- Major presence in higher education market where enrollments are rising
- Undergraduate and graduate enrollments will increase by 15% to nearly
20 million students between 2006 and 2015
|
|
20
|
- Rapidly expanding international markets for education
- Our global operations in place for many years
- Seeing increased demand for U.S. products
- English-language training
- Higher education
- Professional
|
|
21
|
- Convergence of content and technology creating opportunities for new
products that generate incremental revenue
- We work closely with customers to understand product needs, timetables,
cost restraints
- We have leading-edge products in each of our markets
- Professional: Online medical content
- Higher Education: Complete online courses
- K-12: Online reading intervention program for secondary grades
- Testing: Online delivery
- We have technology infrastructure and market intelligence to scale up
efficiently as demand for digital products grows
|
|
22
|
- Identified new opportunities to improve cost structure
- Demonstrated ability to manage costs last year in a declining market
- Launched important initiatives to enhance efficiency and reduce
expenses
- Global Transformation Project
- Global Resource Management
|
|
23
|
- We have the talent and experience to achieve our goals
- Long-term perspective will enable us to thrive as our markets continue
to evolve and expand
|
|
24
|
- In U.S., expect el-hi market to grow 4-to-6% in 2007; higher education
will grow about 4%
- Expect to outperform in both markets
- Will benefit from growing global prospects for higher education and
professional markets
- More growth in digital products as convergence of technology and content
increases addressable market
- Margin expansion in 2007
|
|
25
|
|
|
26
|
- Still expect double-digit top- and bottom-line growth in 2007 and margin
expansion
- Double-digit growth despite an estimated decline of 10-to-15% in
issuance of U.S. residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS)
|
|
27
|
- Continue to expect increases in all asset classes, except for U.S. RMBS
issuance
- U.S. RMBS issuance off 9.3% in January
- Mostly due to decline in home equity loan issuance
|
|
28
|
- Impact on overall credit ratings from delinquencies in sub-prime market
has not been significant
- 2006: S&P lowered about 1.5% of 9,997 outstanding sub-prime ratings
- To date in 2007: No downgrades and only 10 CreditWatch actions relating
to almost 5,000 vintage 2006 sub-prime ratings
- Actions represent only 0.2% of total outstanding ratings
|
|
29
|
- When lending standards started to deteriorate in sub-prime market,
S&P took action:
- Notified industry in April 2006 that it would be raising level of
credit support for riskier sub-prime deals in July 2006
- Tightened surveillance standards for residential mortgage-backed
securities
- S&P determines what effect delinquencies will have on rated RMBS and
CDO transactions that hold residential mortgage-backed securities
|
|
30
|
- Sub-prime market not expected to impact growth prospects anticipated in
structured finance
- RMBS transactions issued in second half of 2006 supported by higher
loss coverage and still performing as expected
|
|
31
|
- For 2006 transactions, S&P anticipates losses in 5.25% to 7.75%
range—slightly above vintage year 2000, the previous worst-performing
year
|
|
32
|
- Expect RMBS to maintain strong credit quality
- Returns continue to attract investors
- High-grade corporate issuance in short supply
- Credit quality of U.S. corporate bond averaging BBB-
- Vast majority of RMBS ratings have been investment grade and very
stable
- AAA rating for 88.1% of the $3.6 trillion in par value of S&P
ratings outstanding as of Jan. 1, 2007
|
|
33
|
- Sub-prime mortgage origination market will not evaporate
- Mortgages are profitable for lenders and represent opportunity for
people who don’t qualify for a prime mortgage
|
|
34
|
- Corporate issuance will grow
- Continued debt-financed M&A activity and healthy spending on
capital equipment
- European prospects look strong
- Public finance may increase modestly
- Opportunistic refinancing depending on interest rates
|
|
35
|
- Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities
will grow
- Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities
- Expect a decline of 10-to-15% in U.S. RMBS issuance
- S&P expects solid growth again overseas
|
|
36
|
- Asset-Backed Securities
- Moderate growth in U.S.
- Bigger increases overseas
|
|
37
|
- Collateralized Debt Obligations
- Continued strength in U.S. and abroad, driven by new structures and
increasing investor base
- Grew by 143.7% in January and even faster globally
- A high-quality market…of $828 billion of outstanding collateralized
transactions:
- 98% rated investment grade
- 82% rated AAA
|
|
38
|
- Geography: S&P operates today in more than 20 countries
- International revenue accounts for
39% of ratings’ total in 2006 vs. 21% in 1994
|
|
39
|
- S&P rates a growing array of instruments not tied to new issuance
and provides new tools, models to our customers
- Non-traditional products and services in 2006 were 24% of ratings
revenue vs. only 8% in 1994
|
|
40
|
- Fee structure reduces S&P’s dependency on transactions through
growth of frequent issuer and surveillance programs
- Transaction revenue now 45% to 50% of revenue vs. 60% in 1994
|
|
41
|
- Growth of unearned revenue is another measure of success in S&P’s
reduced dependency on transactions
- Corporation’s unearned revenue grew by more than 15% in 2006 to $983.2
million and is primarily attributable to Financial Services’ ratings
products
|
|
42
|
- Selling off low-growth, low-margin businesses
- Acquired Capital IQ to take advantage of growth opportunities for
Web-based financial information services
- Sold mutual fund data business in February to focus resources on core
analytical services
- Retained S&P’s market-leading qualitative mutual fund ratings
business
|
|
43
|
- Leveraging and extracting greater value from S&P content is a
strategic imperative
- Capital IQ rapidly growing as S&P’s:
- Data aggregator
- Data provider
- Information distributor
- Now serves more than 1,800 clients
|
|
44
|
- $161 billion in assets under management in exchange-traded funds based
on S&P indices as of December 2006
|
|
45
|
- Our goal: Provide an index for every type of investment style
- Adding new asset classes
- Commodities: Acquired Goldman Sachs Commodity Index in February
- Real Estate: Launched S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for
trading futures and options on futures
|
|
46
|
- Continued strength in ratings
- Solid growth in international markets
- Excellent growth in data and information and indices
- Another year of double-digit top- and bottom-line growth in 2007
- Margin expansion
|
|
47
|
|
|
48
|
- Internet reshaping the B2B market
- Driving the need for information and analytics
- Delivering higher value-added information to readers and advertisers by
focusing on:
- News and information in text, audio, video
- Data and analytics; workflow tools and services
- Search advertising and lead generation
- User-generated content from online communities
|
|
49
|
- Expect solid growth in 2007 from:
- J.D. Power and Associates
- Platts, our energy service
|
|
50
|
- Sweets’ shift from print catalog business to bundled print and online
service had substantial impact on 4Q 2006 results
- Revenue reduced by $23.8 million
- Expect to recognize $23.8 million in revenue as earned during 2007
|
|
51
|
- BusinessWeek.com grew 46% last year off a small base
- Expect more growth in 2007
- Print advertising pages off 3.2% after ten issues vs. 2006
|
|
52
|
- Expanding services in a digital world
- Growth in higher value-added information products
- Margin expansion in 2007
|
|
53
|
- Double-digit earnings growth in 2007
- Another year of double-digit top- and bottom-line increases in Financial
Services
- Solid gains in elementary-high school business
- Growing global opportunities in higher education
- More progress at Information & Media
- Margin expansion in all segments
|
|
54
|
|