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- Chairman, President and CEO
The McGraw-Hill Companies
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- This presentation includes certain forward-looking statements about the
Company’s businesses, new products, sales, expenses, tax rates, cash
flows, prepublication investments and operating and capital
requirements. Such forward-looking statements include, but are not
limited to: the strength and sustainability of the U.S. and global
economy; Educational Publishing’s level of success in 2008 adoptions and
in open territories and enrollment and demographic trends; the level of
educational funding; the strength of School Education including the
testing market, Higher Education, Professional and International
publishing markets and the impact of technology on them; the level of
interest rates and the strength of the economy, profit levels and the
capital markets in the U.S. and abroad; the level of success of new
product development and global expansion and strength of domestic and
international markets; the demand and market for debt ratings, including
collateralized debt obligations (“CDO”), residential mortgage and
asset-backed securities and related asset classes; the regulatory
environment affecting Standard & Poor’s; the level of merger and
acquisition activity in the U.S. and abroad; the strength of the
domestic and international advertising markets; the volatility of the
energy marketplace; the contract value of public works, manufacturing
and single-family unit construction; the level of political advertising;
and the level of future cash flow, debt levels, manufacturing expenses,
distribution expenses, prepublication, amortization and depreciation
expense, income tax rates, capital, technology, restructuring charges
and other expenditures and prepublication cost investment.
- Actual results may differ materially from those in any forward-looking
statements because any such statements involve risks and uncertainties
and are subject to change based upon various important factors,
including, but not limited to, worldwide economic, financial, political
and regulatory conditions; currency and foreign exchange volatility; the
health of debt and equity markets, including interest rates, credit
quality and spreads, the level of liquidity, future debt issuances
including residential mortgage backed securities and CDOs backed by
residential mortgages and related asset classes; the implementation of
an expanded regulatory scheme affecting Standard & Poor’s ratings
and services; the level of funding in the education market (both domestically
and internationally); the pace of recovery in advertising; continued
investment by the construction, computer and aviation industries; the
successful marketing of new products, and the effect of competitive
products and pricing.
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- Reduced global workforce by 395 positions, or approximately 2%, in May
- Reductions in Financial Services and McGraw-Hill Education
- $14.8 million after-tax restructuring charge, or $0.05 per diluted share
of
2Q ‘08 earnings
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- Share buyback program
- Bought back 3.4 million shares in 1Q 2008
- Target for 2008: 15.0 million shares
- Dividend has increased for 35 consecutive years
- Cash returned to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases
has grown at compound annual rate of 27.3% between 1997 and 2007
- Produced a total shareholder return of 10.8% versus 5.9% for the
S&P 500 between 1997 and 2007
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- Current economic outlook somewhat better than many expected
- According to S&P’s chief economist David Wyss:
- Real GDP grew at 0.9% in first quarter; would seem to indicate positive
GDP in second quarter
- Stimulus package: Effect being felt in second quarter and should result
in more spending in third quarter; decline in GDP growth in fourth
quarter
- Strong economic data reduces likelihood of more rate cuts; doesn’t
expect Federal Reserve to raise rates until middle of next year
- Recovery in housing is going to take time
- Concerns in oil prices and in unemployment
- 5.5% jobless rate in May; highest so far this year
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- 3Q: Produces more than 40% of segment’s annual revenue and most of
operating profit
- July-August period is the “60-day month”
- 2Q: June is key month
- Order flow in last few days of June is very difficult to predict; can
profoundly influence 2Q results
- 2008: Segment still on course to increase revenue by 6% to 8% this year
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- We still expect 50 to 100 basis point decline this year in operating
margin
- Stepped-up investments in technology to accelerate digital
transformation of MHE
- $18 million in costs for transition to new data center and an increase
of about $45 million in prepublication amortization this year for new
products launching in 2008
- These increases alone would have negative impact of 200 basis points
on MHE’s operating margin in 2008
- Offsetting factors
- Benefits of 4Q 2007 restructuring actions
- Economies of scale
- Continued cost containment
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- Reorganized basal operations paying off
- Captured 32% of 2007 state new adoption market
- Revenue grew by more than 2.5x market rate
- 2008: We expect industry to grow 4% to 5%; believe we can do better
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- Key markets in 2008: Florida, Texas and California
- Florida: Good year taking shape for K–5 reading adoption
- Texas: We’re competing well in K–5 math adoption
- California: Goods signs for first-year math and second-year adoptions
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- We are encouraged by opportunities our staff has been tracking for this
year
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- In tracking 2009 fiscal year budgets, we’ve seen bigger increases in
education budget than overall state budget
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- Acuity, new formative assessment system, continues to show promise with
new state-level contracts in Indiana and West Virginia
- Implemented in New York City
- Has won many other large district-level adoptions
- TABE, diagnostic assessments and instruction support for adults, won
five-year contract with federal Jobs Corp.’s youth training program
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- Grow Network continues leadership with parent engagement
- Parent Network provides parents with online access to their children’s
assessment results
- Provides personal action plans, educational resources and home
activities
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- Realignment of testing organization is reflected in restructuring
actions we took at MHE in second quarter
- Majority of actions were in assessment business
- Provide solutions more cost effectively
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- Wrapping up spring selling season on positive note; too early to make
prediction on summer’s activity
- 2008 U.S. college and university market expected to grow 3% to 4%
- We hope to at least match those expectations
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- Homework Manager:
Adding more disciplines
- Online Courses:
40 offered so far
- eBooks: Offering downloadable and media rich eBook options through
CourseSmart.com, an industry-sponsored website
- Also distributing samples online to instructors to reduce costs
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- Revenue projected to grow 6% to 8% in 2008
- Operating margin will probably decline
50 to 100 basis points due to stepped up investments in
technology
- Growing confidence in our forecast for the year based on sales results
to date
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- What is the severity of the downturn in the market?
- What is the duration of the downturn?
- What are the regulatory risks?
- What are the legal risks?
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- Structured finance new issue volume declines every month
- 70.1% in January
- 85.2% in February
- 75.0% in March
- 75.4% in April
- 81.8% in May
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- 2Q ‘07 set high water mark last year for revenue and operating profits
at Financial Services
- Segment operating profits grew by 27.9% in 2Q ‘07
- Revenue for Credit Market Services grew by nearly 24% in 2Q ‘07
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- Measured steps to streamline operations and lower costs
- 4Q 2007: Staff reduction of approximately
170 positions
- $18.8 million pre-tax restructuring charge
- 2Q 2008: Eliminated another 246 positions
- $15.2 million pre-tax impact of restructuring will be reflected in 2Q
’08 results
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- Expanding ratings information services
- Investing in ratings models and tools for surveillance for sale to the
financial community
- Adding new data and functionality to products such as Capital IQ and
RatingsDirect
- Growth in surveillance fees, annual contracts and subscriptions help
buffer downturn in transaction volume
- Financial Services’ unearned revenue grew 13.6% to $812 million in 1Q
2008
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- Non-ratings revenue grew 18% in 1Q 2008 and represented 34% of segment’s
revenue
- Untapped potential in this business
- Recently created S&P’s Fixed Income Risk Management Services
(FIRMS) to integrate and rebrand S&P’s services for credit and risk
analysis
- Unit provides market intelligence and analytic insight for risk-driven
investment analysis, including debt, structured finance, derivative
and credit markets
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- Assets under management in exchange-traded funds based on S&P
indices increased 19.2% to $214.9 billion as of May 31, 2008
- S&P signed agreement with the Korean Exchange to develop new
tradeable indices
- Adds to lineup of partnerships S&P has with other exchanges
(Australia, Tokyo, Milan, Toronto, Hong Kong and India)
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- S&P’s growing family of indices has contributed to rise of
exchange-traded portfolios
- S&P’s new real-time currency indices
- S&P Chinese Renminbi Index
- S&P Indian Rupee
- Morgan Stanley is using S&P’s new currency indices as benchmark for
exchange-traded notes
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- S&P earns revenue from exchange-traded derivatives, such as S&P
500 futures and options
- S&P had 71% share of Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s equity and index
futures, and options on futures in 2007
- S&P had 45% share of Chicago Board Options Exchange Index and ETF
options in 2007
- Business is growing in 2008
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- Many ways S&P is paid for indices:
- Real estate: S&P Case/Shiller index for residential market
- Fixed income: S&P National Municipal Index, the ETF market leader
- Options-based Indices, such as implied volatility index (VIX) at CBOE
- Alternative investment indices, such as S&P 130/30 index
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- Still believe legal risk is modest
- Total of five lawsuits, including three recently against several
defendants including banks and some ratings agencies
- Allegations concern RMBS securities purchased by plaintiffs which have
lost value and have had ratings downgrades
- No merit to any of these claims against S&P according to our
attorneys
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- Not clear how or if regulatory burden will increase
- We continue to believe any pending or likely governmental or
self-regulatory proceedings will not result in a material adverse effect
on our financial condition or on results of our operations
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- S&P has been in discussions with both CESR and IOSCO and is
reviewing recommendations
- Many of IOSCO’s recommendations are already reflected in 27 initiatives
S&P is taking to strengthen and enhance our governance, quality of
analytics and data, transparency, and investor education
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- S&P reached a settlement with New York Attorney General
- Underscores S&P’s commitment to transparency, openness and
strengthening of governance of ratings process
- SEC asked S&P to report on methodological or model errors, if any,
that led to erroneous ratings in structured finance
- Our team is working on response to SEC
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- Upcoming actions from SEC:
- June 11: SEC holding a public meeting to discuss proposed new rules for
NRSROs
- Once rules are issued, we expect industry participants will have an
opportunity to comment on them
- Later in June: Expect report from SEC on its examination of the ratings
agencies
- Anticipate more recommendations from Europeans later this month
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- Focus on U.S. RMBS non-prime issuance
- Fee structure changed for RMBS ratings
- Total rating fee will be broken into components
- Portion will be charged for each of
four stages in the ratings process
- S&P’s rating fees not dependent on the closing of the transaction
or the issuance of a final rating
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- Quarterly disclosure of collateral pools S&P is asked to rate
- Designed to discourage shopping for ratings
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- Next three parts call for improvement in the quality of data submitted
for ratings. S&P will be:
- Establishing enhanced criteria for reviewing mortgage originators
- Setting enhanced criteria for representations and warranties on the
underlying loans, addressing issues such as fraud, misrepresentations,
data quality, adherence to underwriting guidelines and early payment
defaults
- Establishing new criteria for due diligence on the underlying mortgage
loans undertaken by those seeking ratings and requiring a statement of
due diligence as part of the RMBS ratings process
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- S&P will be required to review annually its RMBS rating processes to
assess for and remediate any practices that could compromise its
independence
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- Attorney General Cuomo’s assessment is that the agreement should provide
the market with:
- Greater confidence that ratings process not subject to potential
conflicts of interest
- Strengthens quality of data provided to S&P
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- We expect double-digit growth for S&P Investment Services
- First half remains challenging for Credit Market Services
- If little or no improvement in financial markets this year, particularly
in structured finance, we would expect the Financial Services segment’s
revenue to decline 7% to 9% and the operating margin to be reduced by
500 to 600 basis points
- Our guidance excludes second quarter restructuring charge and associated
benefits
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- We expect a 6% to 8% increase in revenue and improvement in the
operating margin
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- Framework for growth: Integrate our products with our customers’
workflow and infrastructure
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- J.D. Power and Associates: Turning industry performance benchmarks into
actionable information is key to expansion
- Platts’ information is increasingly the benchmark for global energy
markets
- McGraw-Hill Construction Network: Improving value proposition by
enhancing analytics and providing customers the analysis and forecasts
they can use to reduce risks
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- Broadcasting: We expect a solid year in political advertising
- Number of local, state and congressional races in our markets
- Number of propositions on ballot in California
- Print advertising still lagging; working hard to stabilize the situation
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- A segment in transition
- Growth in benchmarks, analytics and solutions
- Solid year shaping up for political advertising
- On track to produce a 6% to 8% increase in revenue
- Improved operating margin
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- With the seasonality of our business concentrating earnings in the
second half and despite continued uncertainty about the pace of recovery
in the capital markets, we are not changing our previous 2008 earnings
per share guidance of $2.65 to $2.75
- Excludes impact of May restructuring charge and associated benefits
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