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- Presenters:
- Harold McGraw III
Chairman, President and CEO
- Robert J. Bahash
Executive Vice President and CFO
- Donald S. Rubin
Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
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- This presentation includes certain forward-looking statements about our
businesses and our prospects, new products, sales, expenses, tax rates,
cash flows, prepublication investments and operating and capital
requirements. Such forward-looking statements include, but are not
limited to: the strength and sustainability of the U.S. and global
economy; the duration and depth of the current recession; Educational
Publishing’s level of success in 2010 adoptions and in open territories
and enrollment and demographic trends; the level of educational funding;
the strength of School Education including the testing market, Higher
Education, Professional and International publishing markets and the
impact of technology on them; the level of interest rates and the
strength of the economy, profit levels and the capital markets in the
U.S. and abroad; the level of success of new product development and
global expansion and strength of domestic and international markets; the
demand and market for debt ratings, including collateralized debt
obligations (“CDO”), residential and commercial mortgage and
asset-backed securities and related asset classes; the continued
difficulties in the credit markets and their impact on Standard &
Poor’s and the economy in general; the regulatory environment affecting
Standard & Poor’s; the level of merger and acquisition activity in
the U.S. and abroad; the strength of the domestic and international
advertising markets; the strength and the performance of the domestic
and international automotive markets; the volatility of the energy
marketplace; the contract value of public works, manufacturing and
single-family unit construction; the level of political advertising; and
the level of future cash flow, debt levels, manufacturing expenses,
distribution expenses, prepublication, amortization and depreciation
expense, income tax rates, capital, technology, restructuring charges
and other expenditures and prepublication cost investment.
- Actual results may differ materially from those in any forward-looking
statements because any such statements involve risks and uncertainties
and are subject to change based upon various important factors,
including, but not limited to, worldwide economic, financial, political
and regulatory conditions; currency and foreign exchange volatility; the
health of debt and equity markets, including interest rates, credit
quality and spreads, the level of liquidity, future debt issuances
including residential and commercial mortgage-backed securities and CDOs
backed by residential mortgages and related asset classes; the
implementation of an expanded regulatory scheme affecting Standard &
Poor’s ratings and services; the level of funding in the education market
(both domestically and internationally); the pace of recovery in
advertising; continued investment by the construction, automotive,
computer and aviation industries; the successful marketing of new
products, and the effect of competitive products and pricing.
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- 43.2% increase in 4Q EPS
- 4Q 2009: $0.53, including a $10.5 million pre-tax gain, or $0.02 on
divestiture of BusinessWeek
- Compares to 4Q 2008: $0.37, including a restructuring charge of $0.05
per diluted share
- 4Q revenue increased 3.3%
- Results mark the first quarterly increases in diluted EPS and revenue
since 3Q 2007
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- 2010: We expect $2.55 to $2.65 per diluted share
- Encouraged by:
- Improvement in economy, albeit at modest pace
- Improving financial markets
- Narrowing bond spreads
- Low interest rates
- Prospects for a better year in education markets
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- Actions at January 2010 Board meeting:
- Increased dividend by 4.4%
- Announced MHP’s intention to resume share repurchases in 2010
- Will buy back over time the 17.1 million shares remaining in the
program
- MHP has increased its dividend annually for 37 consecutive years
- Since 1974, dividend has grown at average compound annual rate of 9.9%
- Since 1996, MHP has returned approximately $9.4 billion to shareholders
through dividends and stock buybacks
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- Revenue +2.6% to $520.0 million
- School Education Group:
(7.6%) to $149.8 million
- Higher Education, Professional
and International Group:
+7.5% to $370.2 million
- Operating Profit $33.5 million
- Compares to $12.7 million loss in 2008 which includes an $11.4 million
restructuring charge
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- Operating margin
- 4Q 2009: 6.4%
- 2009: 11.6%
- Includes restructuring charge of $11.6 million
- Excluding restructuring charges, operating margin was 12.0% in 2009
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- Tale of two markets in 2009:
- Elementary-high school market: Declining sales
- U.S. college and university market: Consistent counter-cyclical growth
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- We captured 30% of the total available dollars in the 2009 state new
adoption market
- 2009 market: $500 million to $510 million range
- Represents 50% decline from 2008 state new adoption market
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- Reasons for pick up in 4Q 2009 ordering:
- State allocations reached local districts later than usual in some
regions
- Some federal stimulus funds arrived
- Our intervention programs benefitted from incremental funding for Title
I and Individuals with Disabilities Education Act (IDEA)
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- 7.6% decrease for the McGraw-Hill School Education Group in 4Q 2009 due
to decline in testing
- Major reason for decline in testing was the managed phase-out of
statewide summative contracts in Arizona, California, and Florida
- In testing, we are increasing the focus on formative and
non-custom, “off-the-shelf” markets
- Less emphasis on lower margin custom contracts
- We continue to win summative contracts with a selective bidding strategy
- 4Q 2009: Contracts awarded in
North Dakota, Alabama, Indiana, and New York
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- More progress with Acuity, our formative assessment program
- New York City, nation’s largest school district, now in third year of Acuity
contract
- Philadelphia recently signed on for start of new school year
- Many district-level opportunities are in the pipeline for 2010
- Some states are introducing or expanding the use of Acuity in their
applications for the federal Race to the Top funding
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- 2010 state new adoption market estimated between $925 million and $975
million
- Open territory to decline in 2010 given state budget pressures
- Residual sales in adoption states expected to decline
- Typically falls off in strong state new adoption year
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- Florida scheduled to buy K–12 math
- State adopted new math standards
- Adoption activity currently very brisk at district level
- Texas funding of $465 million in place for K–12 reading and literature
adoption
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- Continue to see evidence of pent-up demand
- Budget pressures remain until economic recovery is further along
- California: Market may see some purchasing that was postponed in 2009
- Funding levels remain uncertain
- Some districts may buy K–8 reading as part of second year adoption
- Some potential for math sales at grades 6–8 and 9–12
- Governor’s budget proposal for 2010–2011 fiscal year instructional
materials is $332.5 million, flat with 2009
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- Surge in second-semester ordering late in year boosted performance
- Industry sales will likely exceed our 8% to 10% growth estimate
- Higher Education, Professional and International Group’s revenue grew
7.5% in 4Q 2009
- 2010: Expect U.S. college market to grow 5% to 7%
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- Surge in enrollments helped drive industry growth
- Two-year colleges and career colleges showed most rapid growth
- Career Education was MHP’s fastest growing higher education imprint in
2009
- All our major imprints grew in 2009 and are expected to do so again in
2010
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- HPI Group’s digital revenue grew at double-digit rates in 4Q 2009 and
for the year
- Includes e-books, online courses, and online study tools for students
like McGraw-Hill Connect
- Pace of integrating content, technology and distribution is accelerating
- Rapid development of new devices and formats for e-book market
- We will take full advantage of digital opportunity
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- All our e-books for college market on CourseSmart already run on iPhone
operating system
- New Apple device expected to use same operating system
- If so, our CourseSmart e-books should run well right out of the box on
new Apple Tablet
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- CourseSmart does not share revenue with Apple
- Students must subscribe to CourseSmart or its college bookstore
partners to access our e-books
- CourseSmart’s iPhone application is free to subscribers
- About 95% of McGraw-Hill Higher Education’s current titles are available
as e-books
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- Subscriptions to our services are growing at a double-digit pace
- In 1Q 2010, we will launch AccessPhysiotherapy
- Sixth specialty site in the AccessMedicine family of online medical
information subscription sites
- Broadens market beyond medical education and clinical practice to the
allied health field
- More digital products to be launched in 1Q 2010
- New opportunities to broaden our reach
- Kiss, Bow or Shake Hands is a new digital subscription-based reference
for international business etiquette
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- We are not waiting for the tipping point in digital growth
- We are ramping up our investment in learning platforms and content
management capabilities
- 2010 operating margins will be impacted by:
- Our ongoing investment in the development of next-generation products
and programs
- Marketing and sales expenses associated with robust state new adoption
schedule
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- Growth in key education markets
- 6% to 7% increase in the 2010 el-hi market
- 5% to 7% growth in U.S. college market
- Segment revenue growth of 7% to 8%
- Operating margins unchanged from 2009
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- Revenue +10.6% to $689.2 million
- S&P Credit Market Services:
+19.4% to $473.4 million
- S&P Investment Services:
(4.8%) to $215.8 million
- Operating Profit +14.6% to $250.0 million
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- Operating margin
- 4Q 2009: 36.3%
- Full year 2009: 39.4%, excluding loss on divestiture of Vista Research
and net restructuring charge
- 2009 operating margin also reflects costs of compliance to meet
increased regulation of S&P Credit Market Services
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- 4Q high-yield issues in Europe
- 4Q 2008: No high-yield issues
- 4Q 2009: 27 high-yield issues
- Dollar value of European industrial issuance was $93.6 billion, up 36.9%
in the fourth quarter
- Represented 154 deals, an increase of 46.7%
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- We expect revenue growth in 2010 from:
- Transaction and non-transaction
- Domestic and international markets
- S&P Credit Market Services’ international revenue was up 17.7% in 4Q
2009
- All regions grew
- Provided 49.4% of total revenue
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- Spread between three-month LIBOR and Federal Reserve’s overnight rate is
down to 0.25%
- Key gauge of how banks assess riskiness of lending to one another
- Spread contraction also across major consumer asset-backed securities
during 2009
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- Strong demand for non-financial institution paper by investors who want
to diversify their portfolios
- Investors are increasingly comfortable in buying lower-rated bonds
- 4Q 2009: 60% of speculative-grade issuance was rated single B+ or below
- Corporates: High-yield bond market has become more attractive than
leveraged loan market
- Companies with riskier credits are lining up to tap it
- Some investors choose speculative-grade because of less restrictive
covenants and longer maturities
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- Non-financial firms are borrowing now to repay expensive debt
- Widely expected that corporate borrowing costs will increase as economy
improves
- Deleveraging of financial institutions
- Credit availability is declining systemically
- Limited availability of bank loan funding will result in greater
reliance on primary bond market
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- S&P believes 2010 may offer a window of opportunity for refinancing
debt
- Refinancing of current and future maturities was robust in 2009 and
should be again in 2010
- About one-third of estimated $300 billion coming due in 2010 was
refinanced in 2009
- Dramatic rise in corporate debt coming due from 2011 through 2014
- Estimated at $2 trillion
- Some may be refinanced in 2010, adding to $200 billion due this year
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- S&P Investment Services produced about 33% of Financial Services’
2009 revenue
- 4Q 2009: Revenue down 4.8%, but down only 1.7% excluding divestitures
- Full year 2009: Revenue declined 4.2% to $861.9 million; declined 1.5%
excluding divestitures
- Expiration of Independent Equity Research Settlement in July a factor
in revenue fall off
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- New high of $247.0 billion at end of 2009 for assets under management in
exchange-traded funds based on S&P indices
- More than $43 billion higher than at year-end 2008
- Previous high of $235.3 billion set at end of 2007
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- S&P has expanded into different indices for new asset classes,
investment strategies and markets:
- Commodities
- Fixed income
- Real estate
- Custom
- Thematic
- Has successful relations with exchanges around the world
- 217 exchange-traded funds based on S&P indices at the end of 2009
- Five added in 4Q 2009
- More coming in 2010 in commodities, equities, fixed income and
alternative investments
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- Capital IQ added new clients in 2009 and now serves more than 2,900
clients
- An increase of 9.9% for the year
- 2010: New customers and increases from current customers are expected to
produce another year of growth
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- We expect revenue to increase with more growth from S&P Indices and
Capital IQ
- Mitigating factors in first part of 2010:
- Divestiture of Vista Research in May 2009
- Expiration of Research Settlement in July 2009
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- Getting close to finish line on global regulation
- Europe:
- November 2009: Issued its final regulation for credit rating agencies
- By September: S&P will need to apply for registration in Europe
- Regulations are being developed by Committee of European Securities
Regulators (CESR) based on IOSCO’s Code of Conduct
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- Australia:
- January 1, 2010: S&P has been licensed to provide its ratings to
wholesale investors
- Canada, Japan and India:
- We continue to work with regulators
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- United States:
- House and Senate continue to consider regulation of rating agencies as
part of omnibus financial markets reform legislation
- We continue to work with Congress on draft legislation. Concerned about
proposed discriminatory liability standards
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- Three general categories of lawsuits:
- Lawsuits alleging S&P is an underwriter or seller of securities
- Update: We continue to make applications seeking dismissal and oral
arguments have been proceeding in several of them
- Lawsuits alleging corporate statements on earnings and ratings were
misleading (stock drop suits)
- Update: Motions to dismiss have been fully briefed and oral arguments
have been held in two cases
- Lawsuits based on state law claims
- Update: Making applications or awaiting decisions on motions to
dismiss
- We are in the discovery phase of the Abu Dhabi case
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- Summary
- Revenue expected to grow in high single digits
- Growth at S&P Credit Market Services and S&P Investment
Services
- Operating profit will grow
- Operating margin will decline about 100 basis points
- Pressure as S&P makes investments in infrastructure of its
business to support future growth and comply with new regulatory
requirements
- Will also invest in key S&P Investment Services businesses
- S&P Investment Services added fewer net subscribers than in 2008;
will impact 2010 revenue
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- Revenue (11.4%) to $253.3 million
- Broadcasting Group:
(26.6%) to $23.3 million
- Business-to-Business Group:
(9.5%) to $230.0 million
- Operating Profit +40.6% to $45.9 million
- Includes a pre-tax gain of $10.5 million on the divestiture of BusinessWeek
- Excluding gain on BusinessWeek and a prior year restructuring charge,
operating profit declined 6.8%
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- Operating margin
- 4Q 2009: 18.1%
- Full year 2009: 9.7%
- Reflects gain on the sale of BusinessWeek
- Excluding the gain and the 2Q 2009 restructuring charge of $4.0
million, the operating margin was 9.0%
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- Business-to-Business Group
- 4Q: 9.5% decline in revenue
- Weak advertising market
- Problems in automotive sector
- Broadcasting Group
- 4Q: 26.6% decline in revenue
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- 2009: Advertising represented approximately 3.5% of MHP’s total revenue
- Down from about 4% in 2008
- 2010: Exposure to advertising market will be reduced to approximately 2%
with the sale of BusinessWeek
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- Political advertising will rebound in 2010
- Senate and House races in Indiana, Colorado and California
- Governor races in Colorado and California
- Spending on issues and propositions
- Political spending on local TV stations gets boost from recent U.S.
Supreme Court decision
- Corporate campaign spending restrictions lifted
- Recently renewed affiliation agreement with ABC
- Will have an adverse but immaterial impact on segment’s future revenue
and profitability
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- Global automotive market recovering
- Global light vehicle sales forecasted to rise 1.6% after 3.1% decline
in 2009
- Continued growth in China—an increasingly important market for J.D.
Power
- North America begins recovering; volume up 10%
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- J.D. Power will complete migration of syndicated studies to online
platform
- Will reduce costs and improve data quality and utility of research data
for clients
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- A plus for the segment in 2010
- B2B digital revenue grew in 2009 and represents more than half of
group’s 2009 sales
- Represented less than 50% in 2008
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- Platts is strengthening its benchmark status in core commodity markets
- Launched series of new oil price benchmarks for Indian markets
- Launched new price assessment for first Russian petroleum stream
flowing through Eastern Siberian Pacific Ocean pipeline for Asian
markets
- Platts closely monitors market developments to anticipate and develop
new benchmarks and assessments for markets around the globe
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- Sale of BusinessWeek will impact revenue and the operating margin in
2010
- Revenue will decline mid single-digits
- Excluding $100 million impact from the BusinessWeek divestiture,
revenue will increase mid single-digits
- Operating margin will rebound, climbing into mid-teens
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- 2010 diluted earnings per share in the $2.55 to $2.65 range
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- Ended 2009 with cash and short-term investments of $1.23 billion
- Year-end gross debt: $1.2 billion
- Comprised of long-term unsecured senior notes
- No commercial paper outstanding at end of 2009
- Slight positive net cash position at end of 2009 compared to net debt
position of $796 million at end of 2008
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- Adjusted expenses represent reported expenses adjusted to exclude:
- Restructuring charges in 2009 and 2008
- Loss on divestiture of Vista Research
- Gain on divestiture of BusinessWeek
- Adjusted segment and corporate expenses declined despite increases in
incentive compensation
- 4Q 2009: (0.3%)
- Full year 2009: (4.7%)
- Adjusted expenses also declined when excluding impact of foreign
currency
- 4Q 2009: (3.3%)
- Full year 2009: (3.4%)
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- McGraw-Hill Education’s adjusted expenses declined
- 4Q 2009: (4.2%)
- Full year 2009: (8.4%)
- Adjusted expenses, at constant currencies, also declined
- 4Q 2009: (6.2%)
- Full year 2009: (7.3%)
- Full year decline, despite higher incentive compensation, driven by:
- Lower cost of sales and reduced selling and marketing costs due to
declining revenue opportunities
- Savings from previous restructuring actions
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- Guidance for 2010: Expect 7% to 8% expense increase versus 2009 adjusted
expenses. Reflects:
- Significant promotion and marketing expense in first year of robust
state new adoption market
- Profit contribution increases in subsequent years from residual sales
- Investment in technology and personnel to support digital initiatives,
particularly at Higher Ed and Professional
- Mitigated by savings from 2Q 2009 merging of our core basal publishing
operations with our alternative basal and supplemental publishing
operations
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- Financial Services’ adjusted expenses increased
- 4Q 2009: +10.3%
- Full year 2009: +1.6%
- Adjusted expenses, at constant currencies, also increased
- 4Q 2009: +4.1%
- Full year 2009: +3.4%
- Full year 2009 expense growth was driven by increases in incentive
compensation and compliance costs but was offset by benefits of
restructuring, tight expense control, and divestitures
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- Guidance for 2010: Expect 9% to 10% increase versus 2009 adjusted
expenses. Driven by:
- Continued investment in our fast growing businesses
- Carry over impact of 2009 hires and planned hires in 2010
- Additional investment to support regulatory and compliance efforts
- Regulatory and compliance costs
- Full year 2009: Approximately $20 million of additional costs versus
2008
- 2010 guidance: Expect increase comparable to 2009
- Highly dependent on final form of regulation
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- Information & Media’s adjusted expenses declined
- 4Q 2009: (12.1%)
- Full year 2009: (8.7%)
- Adjusted expenses, at constant currencies, also declined
- 4Q 2009: (12.7%)
- Full year 2009: (7.9%)
- Factors influencing decline:
- Restructuring savings and lower cost of sales due to reduced revenue
- 4Q 2009 expenses benefitted from divestiture of BusinessWeek
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74
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- Guidance for 2010: Expenses expected to decline in the low teens versus
2009 adjusted expenses
- Primarily reflects the divestiture of BusinessWeek
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75
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- 2010: Now expect a pre-tax benefit of approximately
$25 million from the BusinessWeek divestiture
- Previously estimated $20 million to $25 million
- Information & Media’s 2010 results will reflect $38 million in
savings from BusinessWeek divestiture
- Corporate expense will increase $13 million as a result of managing
vacant space and other support costs following the divestiture
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76
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- 2009 results were adversely impacted by non-cash accounting, a result of
converting J.D. Power’s studies onto Compass, a new online reporting and
analytical tool
- Revenue previously recognized at the time of the syndicated studies’
release will now be recognized ratably over the 12 months of the
subscription
- 2009: $11 million decrease in revenue and $7 million decrease in profit
- 2010: Expect impact to be similar to 2009
- We expect all J.D. Power customers to be accessing new digital delivery
platform
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- 4Q 2009: $36.4 million
- $7.4 million increase compared to 4Q 2008, excluding the 2008
restructuring charge, largely due to $10.3 million increase in
incentive compensation
- 2009: Increased $20.9 million, excluding the 2008 restructuring charge
- Largely due to $23 million increase in incentive compensation
- 2010: Expect to increase $25 million to $30 million
- Primarily due to increase in vacant space in New York resulting from BusinessWeek
divestiture and restructuring actions at McGraw-Hill Education
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- Incentive compensation increased in 4Q 2009 compared to a depressed 2008
- 4Q 2009: Increased $56.6 million
- 2009: Increased $96.2 million
- 2009 increases driven primarily by stronger than anticipated results
and reversals taken in accruals in the prior year
- 2010: Expect incentive compensation to grow in normal patterns with
MHP’s projected performance
- Stock-based compensation expected to reach $50 million compared to
$22.3 million in 2009 due to three-year earning and vesting period, off
a depressed base
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- For nine months, foreign exchange decreased revenue and expense; minimal
impact on profits
- Trend reversed in 4Q 2009:
- Foreign exchange benefitted revenue by $25.8 million while increasing
expenses by $36.3 million
- Operating profit was reduced by $10.5 million
- Full year 2009:
- Foreign exchange decreased revenue by $70.4 million and decreased
expenses by $60.9 million
- Operating profit declined $9.5 million
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80
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- Result: Free cash flow that is available for acquisitions, share
repurchases or to pay down debt
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81
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- Key drivers of growth in free cash flow in 2009:
- Significant reduction in cash incentive compensation payments
- Lower inventory purchases
- Significant improvement in accounts receivable collections
- Investments declined $116.2 million, primarily driven by a reduction in
prepublication costs of $77.1 million
- Guidance for 2010: We anticipate free cash flow in the range of $550
million to $600 million
- Reduction in free cash flow versus 2009 is due largely to more
challenging working capital comparisons and increased investments
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- Contributed approximately $50 million to our U.S. pension plan in 2009
- U.S. plan remains underfunded following significant market declines in
2008, though improved since last year end
- 2010: We do not anticipate any funding requirements
- Pension expense is expected to increase roughly $20 million in 2010
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- Well positioned to fund investments and return cash to shareholders
while maintaining financial flexibility
- Recently approved a 4.4% increase in dividend
- Plan to resume share repurchase program in 2010
- 17.1 million shares remain from 2007 authorization
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- 2009: $177 million
- 2010: Expect $225 million to $235 million
- Expected to increase $48 to $58 million, primarily for opportunities in
state new adoption market
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85
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- 2009: $68.5 million
- 2010: $90 million to $100 million
- Largely reflects increase in technology spending
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- Amortization of prepublication costs
- 2009: $270 million
- 2010: Expect $260 million to $265 million
- Reflects lower level of investment in 2009
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87
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- Depreciation
- 2009: $113 million
- 2010: Expect to grow to $120 million
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88
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- Amortization of intangibles
- 4Q 2009: $16.0 million
- Impacted by acceleration of the amortization of certain acquired
intangibles
- 2009: $52.7 million
- 2010: Expected to decline to approximately $40 million
- Decline due to accelerated amortization of certain intangibles in 2009
and other items being fully amortized
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- 4Q 2009: 314.5 million shares
- 1.6 million share increase compared to 4Q 2008
- 0.8 million share increase compared to 3Q 2009
- 2009: 313.3 million shares
- 5.4 million year-over-year decline
- Driven by full year impact of
2008 share repurchases
- Fully-diluted shares at end of 2009: Approximately 315 million shares
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- 4Q 2009: $20.0 million
- Compared to $15.4 million in 4Q 2008 and $17.8 million in 3Q 2009
- 2009: $76.9 million
- Compared to $75.6 million on 2008
- 2010: Expect interest expense to be roughly comparable to 2009
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91
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- 2009: 36.4% for the full-year
- 2010: Expect a comparable rate
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92
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- 2009: $1.1 billion
- 1.5% increase over 2008
- In constant currency and excluding impact of divestitures, grew 2.8%
versus prior year
- Financial Services represents approximately 74% of MHP’s unearned
revenue
- Financial Services is roughly flat versus prior year
- Strong growth for subscription products was offset by reductions in
equity research and declines driven by lower Structured Finance
revenues
- 2010: Expect mid single-digit growth
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- Presenters:
Harold McGraw III
Chairman, President and CEO
- Robert J. Bahash
Executive Vice President and CFO
- Donald S. Rubin
Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
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- Replay Options
- Internet replay available for one year
- Go to www.mcgraw-hill.com/investor_relations
- Click on the Earnings Announcement link under
Investor Presentation Webcasts
- Telephone replay available through February 26, 2010
- Domestic: 866-451-9006
- International: +1-203-369-1209
- No password required
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