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- Presenters:
- Harold McGraw III
Chairman, President and CEO
- Robert J. Bahash
Executive Vice President and CFO
- Deven Sharma
President, McGraw-Hill Financial Services
- Donald S. Rubin
Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
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- This presentation includes certain forward-looking statements about the
Company’s businesses, new products, sales, expenses, tax rates, cash
flows, prepublication investments and operating and capital
requirements. Such forward-looking statements include, but are not
limited to: the strength and sustainability of the U.S. and global
economy; Educational Publishing’s level of success in 2008 adoptions and
in open territories and enrollment and demographic trends; the level of
educational funding; the strength of School Education including the
testing market, Higher Education, Professional and International
publishing markets and the impact of technology on them; the level of
interest rates and the strength of the economy, profit levels and the
capital markets in the U.S. and abroad; the level of success of new
product development and global expansion and strength of domestic and
international markets; the demand and market for debt ratings, including
collateralized debt obligations (“CDO”), residential mortgage and
asset-backed securities and related asset classes; the regulatory
environment affecting Standard & Poor’s; the level of merger and
acquisition activity in the U.S. and abroad; the strength of the
domestic and international advertising markets; the volatility of the
energy marketplace; the contract value of public works, manufacturing
and single-family unit construction; the level of political advertising;
and the level of future cash flow, debt levels, manufacturing expenses,
distribution expenses, prepublication, amortization and depreciation
expense, income tax rates, capital, technology, restructuring charges
and other expenditures and prepublication cost investment.
- Actual results may differ materially from those in any forward-looking
statements because any such statements involve risks and uncertainties
and are subject to change based upon various important factors,
including, but not limited to, worldwide economic, financial, political
and regulatory conditions; currency and foreign exchange volatility; the
health of debt and equity markets, including interest rates, credit
quality and spreads, the level of liquidity, future debt issuances
including residential mortgage backed securities and CDOs backed by
residential mortgages and related asset classes; the implementation of
an expanded regulatory scheme affecting Standard & Poor’s ratings
and services; the level of funding in the education market (both domestically
and internationally); the pace of recovery in advertising; continued
investment by the construction, computer and aviation industries; the
successful marketing of new products, and the effect of competitive
products and pricing.
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- EPS
- 1Q 2008: $0.25
- Compares to $0.40 in 1Q 2007 (included $0.03 gain on divestiture of a
mutual fund business in March)
- Revenue
- 1Q 2008: Declined 6.1% to $1.2 billion
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- Continued financial sector problems
- Expect Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 to 50 basis points
- Fed funds rate currently 2.25%
- David Wyss, S&P’s chief economist, thinks first half of 2008 will be
toughest period for economy
- Expects tax rebate to produce 2.5% GDP growth in 3Q 2008
- Business tax credits will provide boost in 4Q
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- 1Q 2008 segment results
- Revenue - 0.5% decline to
$330.2 million
- Operating loss Reduced by 0.5% to
$90.3 million
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- School Education Group
- Revenue - 4.8% to $138.8 million
- Higher Education, Professional
and International Group
- Revenue + 2.9% to $191.4 million
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- El-hi: 1Q revenue depends more on fill-in copies and supplemental
materials
- Higher education: 1Q revenue driven by ordering for start of new term,
an echo of previous term
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- Expect new state adoption market to grow 10% to 15%
- North Carolina only adoption state to place substantial basal materials
order in 1Q
- Strength in state new adoption market starting to materialize
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- State new adoption market estimated at $900 to $950 million vs. $820
million in 2007
- Open territory: Expecting 1% to
2% year-over-year revenue growth
- El-hi: 4% to 5% anticipated
growth for whole market
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- Open territory decisions typically made through end of second quarter
- Expect to benefit from:
- Math Connects, a new K-5 national program
- TimeLinks, a new K-5 social studies program
- Anticipate gains in market share for Treasures, our elementary reading
program
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- Diminishing demand for traditional, stand-alone products
- No longer purchased separately since similar materials provided in
ancillary packages accompanying today’s basal programs
- Sales growth in new print and digital intervention products
- Constructed around state standards and validated through research
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- Strengthening new revenue stream as formative assessment gains
importance
- Measuring the success of Acuity, our new formative program since 2007
introduction:
- Selected for New York City Periodic Assessment Program
- Largest formative contract ever awarded at $80 million over 5 years
- Expanding customer base in New York and other states
- Adopted state-wide in Indiana and West Virginia
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- Gaining confidence in forecasts for growth in el-hi and higher education
- Segment revenue growth of 6% to 8% in 2008
- Expect operating margin decline of 50 to 100 basis points due to
stepped-up investments in technology to accelerate digital
transformation
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- 1Q 2008 segment results
- Revenue -11.6% decline to
$644.3 million
- Operating profit -25.3% to $260.0 million
- Operating margin 40.4%, down from 47.7%
in 1Q 2007
- Improved compared to
4Q 2007 (35.8% plus 2.5% 4Q restructuring charge)
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- Starting to benefit from the restructuring
in 4Q 2007
- Will see full impact starting in 2Q 2008
- Strictly limited hiring
- Cut back on discretionary expenses
- Reduced 2008 incentive compensation
- Costs declined year-over-year
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- Considering additional staff reductions
- Need to do more to lower costs and improve efficiency
- Will say more in next several weeks about further reductions at:
- Financial Services
- McGraw-Hill Education
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- Growth of Investment Services is a key in efforts to diversify
- Investment Services grew by 18% to
$217 million in 1Q 2008
- Represented 34% of segment’s revenue
- Expect double-digit revenue growth for balance of year
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- Unearned revenue increased 13.6% to
$812 million
- Represents 74% of corporation’s total unearned revenue for 1Q 2008
- Expect deferred revenue to continue growing
- Produced increases at S&P Credit Market Services in:
- Subscription services
- Annual fees
- Surveillance revenue
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- Capital IQ continues to add customers
- Now serving more than 2,300 clients
- 24% increase vs. 1Q 2007
- Continues to upgrade product line
- Latest release includes 3,500 non-traditional media sources, improved
download capabilities, and improved charting functionality
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- $209.7 billion in assets under management in ETFs based on S&P
indices at end of 1Q 2008
- 23.1% increase compared to 1Q 2007
- Data and custom index businesses grew in 1Q
- 13 new ETFs in 1Q based on S&P indices
- Now 157 ETFs based on S&P indices
- More indices in the pipeline
- One of fastest growing and most profitable businesses in segment
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- SEC report expected this summer
- May propose some new oversight rules
- We’re committed to bringing stability and transparency to capital
markets
- We do not believe any pending legal, governmental, or self-regulatory
proceedings will have adverse effect on our financial conditions or
operations
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- Summary
- Expect double-digit growth for S&P Investment Services
- Credit ratings markets face continued uncertainty
- If steep drop experienced in 1Q in structured finance continues for
rest of year, segment revenue would decline 7% to 9%
- Would also expect a 500 to 600 basis point drop in operating margin
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- 1Q 2008 segment results
- Revenue + 3.2% to $243.4 million
- Operating profit +18.6% to $11.7 million
- Operating margin 4.8%, up from 4.2% in 1Q 2007
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- Revenue grew 3.5% in 1Q to $219.7 million
- Key contributors
- Value-added information for global markets
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- Increasing demand for Platts’ news and pricing services
- Platts growing faster overseas than in North America
- Attracting new customers in emerging markets like former Soviet
Republic and the Middle East
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- BusinessWeek
- Ad pages for global edition down 19.4% in 1Q 2008, according to
Publishers Information Bureau
- Broadcasting revenue of $23.7 million flat vs. 1Q 2007
- Increases in political advertising offset by declines in national time
sales
- Outlook for political advertising is promising
- Upcoming primaries and state and local elections in Indiana,
California, Colorado
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- Summary
- More global growth for information products
- Promising outlook for political advertising later in year
- Segment revenue growth of 6% to 8%
- Improvement in operating margins
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- Summary
- Year-over-year comparisons easier in second half in Financial Services
- Possibility of finishing 2008 on upswing
- If current trends in financial markets continue, expect EPS in $2.65 to
$2.75 range in 2008
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- McGraw-Hill Education unchanged
- Expect revenue growth of 6% to 8% and a 50 to 100 basis point decline
in operating margin
- Transfer of our Advanced Placement “AP” courses from Higher Education
to School Education Group
- Not material to Group’s 1Q results but will be later in the year, as
well as to their full-year results
- Information & Media unchanged
- Expect 6% to 8% revenue growth and improved margins
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- Financial Services’ Investment Services
- Maintaining forecast of double-digit growth
- Financial Services segment
- If little or no improvement in financial markets this year, we would
expect revenue to decline 7% to 9% and operating margin to be reduced
500 to 600 basis points
- If that’s the case, EPS in 2008 could range between $2.65 and $2.75
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- New estimate: Approximately $600 million before acquisitions or share
repurchases
- Started year with $850-$900 million range
- Forecast driven by:
- Reduced profits at Financial Services and impact on working capital
- Reduction will be partially mitigated by careful review of new
investments
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- 1Q 2008
- S&P Maalot, an Israeli securities rating company
- Licensing rights to S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
- 2Q 2008
- Umbria, a marketing intelligence company social media and
consumer-generated media research
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- Capacity:
- Began year with 28 million shares remaining in 2007 buyback program
- Initial 2008 target: 20 million shares
- 1Q 2008: 3.4 million shares repurchased for $134 million; average price
of $39.42
- New target: 15 million shares
- Reflects reduction in free cash flow
- Focus on maintaining debt levels comparable with year-end 2007
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- 1Q 2008: $1.2 billion in net debt
- $400 million increase versus year-end 2007
- Commercial paper borrowing in 1Q to fund primarily seasonal cash
requirements along with share repurchases
- As of March 31:
- Gross debt of $1.2 billion of unsecured senior notes and $396.2 million
in commercial paper outstanding
- Offset by $396.7 million in cash, primarily foreign holdings
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- 2008: Now expect $75-85 million for year
- Lower than previous estimate due to new share repurchase target
- 1Q 2008: $17.8 million net interest expense
- Compared to $1.2 million in 1Q 2007
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- 1Q 2008: 323.4 million shares
- 38.1 million share decrease compared to 1Q 2007
- 7.4 million share decrease compared to 4Q 2007
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- 1Q 2008: Decreased $1.2 million to
$33.9 million, compared to a year ago
- Primarily driven by lower incentive compensation accruals
- 2008: Now expect mid single-digit decrease
- Compares to previous guidance of low single-digit increase
- Change primarily driven by reduced incentive compensation and stringent
expense controls
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- 1Q benefited from decreased incentive compensation, including
stock-based compensation
- $40 million decrease year-over-year at S&P
- Decline in incentive compensation expense not as pronounced for rest of
year
- Accruals less significant in second half of 2007 due to slow down of
business
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- We are investing in businesses that are growing while maintaining
stringent expenses controls at Credit Market Services
- On an adjusted basis,
expenses decreased 1Q ‘08 vs. 1Q ‘07:
- Reported expense: 0.9%, or $3.4 million increase
- Adjusted expense: 4.0%, or $16 million decrease
- Adjusted for:
- Net gain in 2007 (1Q 2007 gain from divestiture of mutual fund
business, partially offset by operating expenses prior to
divestiture)
- Acquisition operating costs for 2008
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- 1Q ’08 vs. 4Q ’07: Expense decreased
$70 million, or 15.4%
- Excludes restructuring charge taken in 4Q ’07
- We are benefiting from expense management, hiring delays and
curtailments, and 4Q restructuring actions
- Lower incentive compensation a key factor, but not as significant as Q1
’08 to Q1 ’07 comparison since we reduced incentive compensation in 4Q
‘07
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- 1Q 2008: $1.1 billion
- Reflects 11.5% year over year increase
- Excluding foreign currency gains, increase is 9.7%
- 2008: Expect growth to moderate given forecast for slower revenue growth
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- 2008: Expect effective tax rate of 37.5%
- Approximately same as 2007 on full-year basis
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- 1Q 2008: $66.6 million, compared to
$57.4 million in same period last year
- 2007: Now expect $290 million
- Down from previous $300-$310 million estimate
- Reflects prudent investments and continued
off-shoring efficiencies
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- 1Q 2008: $23.6 million, compared to
$22.7 million in same period last year
- 2008: Now expect $160 million
- Normal replacement expenditures
- Additional purchases of software and technology equipment for new data
center in first half of 2008
- Continued investments in technology
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- Amortization of pre-publication costs
- 1Q 2008: $28.2 million, compared
to
$28.1 million in same period last year
- 2008: Still expect prepublication amortization to increase $45 million
to $285 million
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- Depreciation
- 1Q 2008: $27.5 million, compared
to $28.9 million in same period last year
- 2008: Still expect approximately $125 million
- Completion of data center
- Purchases of new technology equipment for data center
- Other increases in capital expenditures
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- Amortization of intangibles
- 1Q 2008: $14.2 million, compared
to $11.6 million in same period last year
- 2008: Expect approximately $52
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- Presenters:
Harold McGraw III
Chairman, President and CEO
- Robert J. Bahash
Executive Vice President and CFO
- Deven Sharma
President, McGraw-Hill Financial Services
- Donald S. Rubin
Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
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- Replay Options
- Internet
- Go to www.mcgraw-hill.com/investor_relations
- Click on the Earnings Announcement link under
Investor Presentation Webcasts
- Telephone (Available through May 29)
- Domestic: 888-662-6641
- International: +1-402-220-6412
- No password required
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