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- Harold McGraw III
- Chairman, President and CEO
- The McGraw-Hill Companies
- Presented at the
- Jefferies 6th Annual Global Internet, Media
and Telecom Conference
- May 10, 2010
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- This presentation includes certain forward-looking statements about our
businesses and our prospects, new products, sales, expenses, tax rates,
cash flows, prepublication investments and operating and capital
requirements. Such forward-looking statements include, but are not
limited to: the strength and sustainability of the U.S. and global
economy; the duration and depth of the current recession; Educational
Publishing’s level of success in 2010 adoptions and in open territories
and enrollment and demographic trends; the level of educational funding;
the strength of School Education including the testing market, Higher
Education, Professional and International publishing markets and the
impact of technology on them; the level of interest rates and the
strength of the economy, profit levels and the capital markets in the
U.S. and abroad; the level of success of new product development and
global expansion and strength of domestic and international markets; the
demand and market for debt ratings, including corporate issuance, CDO’s,
residential and commercial mortgage and asset-backed securities and
related asset classes; the continued difficulties in the credit markets
and their impact on Standard & Poor’s and the economy in general;
the regulatory environment affecting Standard & Poor’s; the level of
merger and acquisition activity in the U.S. and abroad; the strength of
the domestic and international advertising markets; the strength and the
performance of the domestic and international automotive markets; the
volatility of the energy marketplace; the contract value of public
works, manufacturing and single-family unit construction; the level of
political advertising; and the level of future cash flow, debt levels,
manufacturing expenses, distribution expenses, prepublication,
amortization and depreciation expense, income tax rates, capital,
technology, restructuring charges and other expenditures and
prepublication cost investment.
- Actual results may differ materially from those in any forward-looking
statements because any such statements involve risks and uncertainties
and are subject to change based upon various important factors,
including, but not limited to, worldwide economic, financial, political
and regulatory conditions; currency and foreign exchange volatility; the
health of debt and equity markets, including interest rates, credit
quality and spreads, the level of liquidity, future debt issuances
including, corporate issuance, residential and commercial
mortgage-backed securities and CDO’s backed by residential mortgages,
related asset classes and other asset-backed securities; the
implementation of an expanded regulatory scheme affecting Standard &
Poor’s ratings and services; the level of funding in the education
market (both domestically and internationally); the pace of recovery in
advertising; continued investment by the construction, automotive,
computer and aviation industries; the successful marketing of new
products, and the effect of competitive products and pricing.
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- Improving economy
- Recovering markets
- We expect growth in 2010
- Good start to year
- Financial position is strong
- Increased the dividend
- Expect to resume share buybacks later this year
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- Advances in technology: Creating new growth opportunities
- For our digital products
- In global markets
- Making progress on the legal front
- Regulatory situation remains fluid
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- Recession appears to be over
- Real GDP increased 3.2% in 1Q 2010
- Risen for three consecutive quarters
- Improving housing market
- Narrowing credit spreads—indication of less risk aversion
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- Despite operating challenges, in 2009 we:
- Strengthened the balance sheet
- Enhanced liquidity
- Contained and reduced costs
- Result: Started 2010 in a very strong financial position
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- EPS
- 4Q 2009: +43.2%
- 1Q 2010: $0.33, a 65% increase
- 2010 guidance
- Expect diluted earnings per share in the
$2.55 to $2.65 range
- Compares to $2.33 in 2009
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- Dividend paid every year since 1937
- 9.9% compound annual growth rate since 1974
- Expect to repurchase shares this year
- 17.1 million shares remaining in the program
- $9.4 billion returned to shareholders in dividends and share
repurchases since 1996
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- The amount of digital data in the world is expected to be 5x larger in
2012 than in 2008
- Producing quality from quantity is key
- MHP’s benchmarks and standards are satisfying the need for knowledge in
the expanding digital and global economy
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- Since 2000, MHP revenue from foreign sources has grown faster than it
has in the U.S.
- Foreign source revenue accounted for 29% of total in 2009
- Expected to account for more than 30% of total by end of 2010
- Anticipate contribution from all three segments
- 10-year compound annual growth rate for foreign source revenue through
2009: 8.9%
- Versus 2.7% CAGR for domestic revenue
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- Courts are issuing favorable decisions
- 12 cases dismissed; 11 since beginning of 2010
- Three motions to dismiss have been denied pending discovery
- We believe these cases are without merit
- Eight different judges have
ruled on the 12 dismissals
- Dismissals fall into three major categories:
- 1. Underwriter lawsuits
- 2. “Stock drop” suits
- 3. Suits involving state law claims,
including alleged fraud
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- Clear takeaways from recent court decisions:
- Rating agencies are not underwriters or sellers of securities under
securities laws
- Ratings are opinions, not statements of fact
- After-the-fact criticisms of rating agencies do not support the
inference that rating agencies didn’t believe the appropriateness of
their ratings at time of issuance
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- Clear takeaways from recent court decisions (continued):
- Rating agencies’ alleged conflicts of interest were widely known by
investors
- Investors were adequately apprised of risks and limitations of using
credit ratings
- Not recommendations to buy, sell or hold securities
- Legal risk remains low
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- Issues with proposed U.S. Senate bill
- Promises level playing field for all participants, but at the same time
proposes to lower pleading standards only for credit rating agencies
- To impose lower pleading standards on rating agencies is unprecedented
and discriminatory
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- We fully support increased accountability, transparency and oversight of
credit rating agencies
- But, some amendments would increase federal bureaucracy and undermine
efforts to establish consistent international ratings
- Some proposals ignore new SEC rules encouraging more competition and
requiring NRSROs to manage conflicts of interest
- Including requirements for issuers to provide underlying information
on structured finance securities to all NRSROs—not just the NRSROs
they hire—giving all NRSROs the opportunity to issue unsolicited
opinions
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- Exploring new ways to further improve S&P’s processes consistent
with regulations here and abroad
- Looking at new ways to evaluate data and the quality of information
sources
- Examining whether or not to rate some issues, issuers, or transactions
that don’t have a track record
- May result in rating fewer emerging companies, potentially limiting
access to funding in public markets for growth and innovation
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- More transparent, comparable and stable ratings from S&P
- To increase transparency, S&P is providing investors with more
information about underlying assumptions
- To make ratings more comparable across sectors and time, S&P has
revised ratings criteria and strengthened analytics
- To make ratings more stable, S&P is employing measures that better
account for severe economic stress
- Finding new ways to increase the value of its credit ratings is one of
the great lessons that S&P has learned well
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- Following a strong 4Q 2009, Financial Services produced solid results in
1Q 2010
- Revenue growth at S&P Credit Market Services:
- 4Q 2009: +19.4%
- 1Q 2010: +15.4%
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- S&P Credit Market Services expects more growth from:
- High-yield issuance
- Bank loan ratings
- Increased investment-grade transactions
- Municipal market
- Modest improvement in structured finance
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- Non-transaction revenue represents 67% of S&P Credit Market
Services’ revenue
- S&P continues to build its deferred revenue stream
- Recurring annual fees through frequent issuer programs, surveillance
fees, and subscription services
- 8.1% non-transaction revenue growth in 1Q primarily from increased
subscriptions, annual fees, and price increases
- Non-transaction: Revenue stream expected to be durable for some time
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- Confidence is underscored by increase in the Corporation’s unearned
revenue
- 1Q 2010: $1.1 billion, up 2.8%
versus 1Q 2009
- Up 4.3% in constant currency—excluding the impact of divestitures,
including BusinessWeek
- Financial Services accounts for 75% of the Corporation’s total unearned
revenue
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- 1.5% decrease in 1Q revenue
- Decline primarily attributable
to:
- Divestiture of Vista Research in May 2009
- Expiration of contracts under Research Settlement in July 2009
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- Capital IQ and S&P Indices were primary drivers in 1Q results
- Capital IQ now serves more than 3,000 clients
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- 1Q 2010: New high of $254.2 billion for assets under management in
exchange-traded funds based on S&P indices
- 238 ETFs based on S&P Indices
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- Goal: An index for every type of
investment
- Adding new indices in:
- Commodities
- Fixed income
- Equities
- Strategy
- Custom
- Recently licensed the National Stock Exchange of India to create and
list Indian Rupee-denominated futures contracts on the S&P 500
- Launched S&P/BG Cantor U.S. Treasury Bill and Bond Indices
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- We are also building out the Global Credit Portal
- The place to go for Web-based workflow solutions that enable clients to
perform credit risk-driven analysis
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- Credit Health Panel, a new service with information on 26,000
publicly-traded non-financial companies—23,000 of which are not rated by
S&P Credit Market Services
- Delivers quantitatively derived credit health assessments for an
unrated universe:
- Cash generation capabilities
- Operational risks
- Debt servicing capacity
- Enables subscribers to compare a company’s fundamental performance
against its peers to assess creditworthiness and the probability of
default
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- The Risk-to-Price score is coming this summer
- Helps investors understand if they are being fairly compensated for
market and credit risk in corporate bonds
- Ranks securities on a relative basis according to each issue’s intrinsic
balance between risk and return
- Risk-to-Price will provide daily scores on more than 6,000 U.S. and
European bonds
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- Summary
- Markets are recovering
- Progress on the litigation front
- High single-digit revenue growth with improvement at S&P Credit
Market Services and S&P Investment Services
- Operating profit is growing
- Operating margin will decline 100 basis points
- Reflects infrastructure investments and compliance with new regulatory
requirements
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- Expect growth in key education markets in 2010
- 6% to 7% in the elementary-high school market
- 5% to 7% in the U.S. college market
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- Digital revenue is growing at a double-digit rate in our higher
education and digital markets
- Accounts for 15% of our revenue in these markets
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- AccessPhysiotherapy is sixth specialty site in the AccessMedicine suite
- Broadens market beyond medical education and clinical practice to the
allied health field
- Digital offering broadens geographic coverage
- New partnership agreement with the Chinese Education and Research
Network
- Makes Access suite available for the first time to Chinese students,
educators and researchers
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- Increasing addressable market with assessment tools and services for
college students
- Now more than 1.2 million registered users of McGraw-Hill Connect™ and
other homework management products
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- Our el-hi products and services are integrating digital components into
virtually every program we produce
- We offer multimedia packages
- Mix of components varies by grade and subject
- Interactive online student editions are a part of the future that is
already here
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- Estimate 2010 state new adoption market to grow between $875 million and
$925 million
- Forecast represents about an 80% year-over-year increase for the market
- Increase will offset the expected low single-digit decline in open
territory sales and a somewhat steeper drop in residual sales
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- McGraw-Hill School Education Group is aiming for a 30% or more share of
2010 state new adoption market
- El-hi market sales are up 11.9% at end of 1Q 2010
- 1Q results typically represent less than 10% of a year’s results
- 2008: 1Q accounted for 7.9% of
the year’s total
- 2009: 1Q accounted for 8.1% of the year’s total
- We don’t expect the pattern to change in 2010
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- Growth in key education markets in 2010
- 6% to 7% in the elementary-high school market
- 5% to 7% in the U.S. college market
- Segment revenue: 6% to 7% growth
- Operating margin: Unchanged from 2009
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- Operating margin: 13.5% vs. 1.2% in 1Q 2009
- Highest operating margin since 14.9% for full year 2004
- Late 2009 divestiture of BusinessWeek is having a positive impact on
results
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- A plus for the segment in 2010
- Digital products and services represented more than 60% of B2B Group’s
1Q revenue
- Contributed to margin improvement
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- Building on leading industry positions in global energy, construction,
marketing, and aviation
- Products and services represent the standard or provide important
benchmarks
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- Q1 2010: BusinessWeek divestiture reduced expenses by $40 million
- Positive profit impact of approximately
$12 million
- Realize savings of $38 million for the full year
- Broadcasting Group: Expect political advertising to pick up in 2010
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- Summary for 2010:
- 2009 sale of BusinessWeek will have a positive impact on revenue and
operating margin in 2010
- Revenue: Expect mid single-digit decline
- Excluding $99 million from BusinessWeek divestiture, revenue will
increase in the mid single-digit range
- Operating margin: Expect to rebound into the mid-teens
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- Our guidance for the year calls for diluted earnings per share of $2.55
to $2.65
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