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- Harold McGraw III
- Chairman, President and CEO
- The McGraw-Hill Companies
- Presented at the
- J.P. Morgan 38th Annual Global Technology,
- Media and Telecom Conference
- May 17, 2010
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- This presentation includes certain forward-looking statements about our
businesses and our prospects, new products, sales, expenses, tax rates,
cash flows, prepublication investments and operating and capital
requirements. Such forward-looking statements include, but are not
limited to: the strength and sustainability of the U.S. and global
economy; the duration and depth of the current recession; Educational
Publishing’s level of success in 2010 adoptions and in open territories
and enrollment and demographic trends; the level of educational funding;
the strength of School Education including the testing market, Higher
Education, Professional and International publishing markets and the
impact of technology on them; the level of interest rates and the
strength of the economy, profit levels and the capital markets in the
U.S. and abroad; the level of success of new product development and
global expansion and strength of domestic and international markets; the
demand and market for debt ratings, including corporate issuance, CDO’s,
residential and commercial mortgage and asset-backed securities and
related asset classes; the continued difficulties in the credit markets
and their impact on Standard & Poor’s and the economy in general;
the regulatory environment affecting Standard & Poor’s; the level of
merger and acquisition activity in the U.S. and abroad; the strength of
the domestic and international advertising markets; the strength and the
performance of the domestic and international automotive markets; the
volatility of the energy marketplace; the contract value of public
works, manufacturing and single-family unit construction; the level of
political advertising; and the level of future cash flow, debt levels,
manufacturing expenses, distribution expenses, prepublication,
amortization and depreciation expense, income tax rates, capital,
technology, restructuring charges and other expenditures and
prepublication cost investment.
- Actual results may differ materially from those in any forward-looking
statements because any such statements involve risks and uncertainties
and are subject to change based upon various important factors,
including, but not limited to, worldwide economic, financial, political
and regulatory conditions; currency and foreign exchange volatility; the
health of debt and equity markets, including interest rates, credit
quality and spreads, the level of liquidity, future debt issuances
including, corporate issuance, residential and commercial
mortgage-backed securities and CDO’s backed by residential mortgages,
related asset classes and other asset-backed securities; the
implementation of an expanded regulatory scheme affecting Standard &
Poor’s ratings and services; the level of funding in the education
market (both domestically and internationally); the pace of recovery in
advertising; continued investment by the construction, automotive,
computer and aviation industries; the successful marketing of new
products, and the effect of competitive products and pricing.
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- Recovering markets
- We expect growth in 2010
- Good start to year
- Financial position is strong
- Increased the dividend
- Resuming share buybacks this year
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- Advances in technology: Creating new growth opportunities
- For our digital products
- In global markets
- Making progress on the legal front
- Regulatory situation remains fluid
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- Real GDP increased 3.2% in 1Q 2010
- Has risen for three consecutive quarters
- Clear sign the recession is over
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- EPS
- 4Q 2009: +43.2%
- 1Q 2010: $0.33, a 65% increase
- 2010 guidance
- Expect diluted earnings per share in the
$2.55 to $2.65 range
- Compares to $2.33 in 2009
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- Increased dividend in January
- 9.9% compound annual growth rate since 1974
- We have resumed the share repurchase program
- 17.1 million shares remaining in the program
- Will provide updates at quarterly earnings calls
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- Since 2000, MHP revenue from foreign sources has grown faster than it
has in the U.S.
- 10-year compound annual growth rate for foreign source revenue through
2009: 8.9%
- Versus 2.7% CAGR for domestic revenue
- Foreign source revenue will represent more than 30% of total by end of
2010
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- Courts are issuing favorable decisions
- 12 cases dismissed; 11 this year
- Three motions to dismiss have been denied, pending discovery
- We believe these cases are without merit
- Eight different judges have
ruled on the 12 dismissals
- Dismissals fall into three major categories:
- 1. Underwriter lawsuits
- 2. “Stock drop” suits
- 3. Suits involving state law claims,
including alleged fraud
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- Clear and unambiguous takeaways from recent court decisions:
- Rating agencies are not underwriters or sellers of securities under
securities laws
- Ratings are opinions, not statements of fact
- After-the-fact criticisms of rating agencies do not support the
inference that rating agencies didn’t believe the appropriateness of
their ratings at time of issuance
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- Clear and unambiguous takeaways from recent court decisions (continued):
- Rating agencies’ alleged conflicts of interest were widely known by
investors
- Investors were adequately apprised of risks and limitations of using
credit ratings
- Not recommendations to buy, sell or hold securities
- Legal risk remains low
- Our previous statement to investors that we have not received a Wells
notice still holds true
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- Issues with proposed U.S. Senate financial reform bill
- Working to resolve contradictory language
- Promises level playing field for all participants, but at the same
time proposes to lower pleading standards only for credit rating
agencies
- To impose lower pleading standards on rating agencies is unprecedented
and discriminatory
- Goal should be a single pleading standard for all
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- We fully support efforts that increase transparency, accountability and
restore confidence in markets
- But some proposals would set a precedent for more interference in the
rating process
- Could undermine analytical independence and perceptions that rating
opinions are government endorsed
- No government seal of approval on rating opinions would be a goal
shared by all
- Proposals ignore Senate bill’s strong oversight rules and new SEC rules
encouraging more competition and requiring NRSROs to manage conflicts
of interest
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- Proposals in Congress to put the government’s thumb on the ratings scale
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- Senator Dodd opposed Franken and LeMieux amendments
- Franken amendment would establish a Board appointed by the SEC to
assign a qualified NRSRO to do initial structured finance ratings
- LeMieux amendment would remove rating requirements and references from
existing laws and delete a provision requiring a study on the
implications of such a step
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- What Senator Dodd said:
- On the Franken amendment:
- “I do not know what the implications are because we have had no real
examination of [it]…I am just uneasy about what the implications can
be…I just do not know whether it is sound...”
- On the LeMieux amendment:
- “Congress could not simply repeal safety and soundness laws without
careful prior study of the impact on the markets.”
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- Senator Dodd urged colleagues to review his Committee’s bill
- “Our bill sets out a process by which overreliance on these rating
agencies can be reduced without creating risk throughout the financial
system. That is my concern. Stripping everything out of safety
and soundness in this area does not get you safety and soundness.” –
Senator Dodd
- We agree and support proposals to increase transparency, accountability
and restore confidence to financial markets
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- We continue to examine new ways to further improve our own processes
consistent with regulation—both here and abroad
- We are looking at new steps to evaluate data and the quality of the
information sources used in the ratings process
- And evaluating whether or not to rate some issues, issuers, or
transactions that don’t have a track record
- May result in rating fewer emerging companies, potentially limiting
access to funding in public markets for growth and innovation
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- S&P has already taken important steps to strengthen analytics,
increase transparency and reinforce the integrity of the ratings process
- Our ratings today are more transparent, more comparable and more stable
- To increase transparency, we are providing investors with additional
information about underlying assumptions
- We have revised ratings criteria and strengthened analytics to make
ratings more comparable across sectors and time
- To make ratings more stable, we are better accounting for the impact of
periods of severe economic stress
- Finding new ways to increase the value of its credit ratings for
investors is a lesson S&P has learned well
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- Summary
- Markets are recovering
- Progress on the litigation front
- Expect high single-digit revenue growth with improvement at S&P
Credit Market Services and S&P Investment Services
- Operating profit expected to grow
- Operating margin will decline about 100 basis points
- Reflects infrastructure investments and compliance with new regulatory
requirements
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- Summary
- Growth in key education markets in 2010
- 6% to 7% in the elementary-high school market
- 5% to 7% in the U.S. college market
- Segment revenue: 6% to 7% growth
- Operating margin: Unchanged from 2009
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- Summary
- 2009 sale of BusinessWeek will have a positive impact on revenue and
operating margin in 2010
- Revenue: Expect mid single-digit decline
- Excluding $99 million from BusinessWeek divestiture, revenue will
increase in the mid single-digit range
- Operating margin: Expect to rebound into the mid-teens
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- Our guidance for the year calls for diluted earnings per share of $2.55
to $2.65
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