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- Harold McGraw III
- Chairman, President and CEO
- The McGraw-Hill Companies
- Presented at the
- Bank of America Merrill Lynch
- 2010 Services Conference
- May 24, 2010
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- This presentation includes certain forward-looking statements about our
businesses and our prospects, new products, sales, expenses, tax rates,
cash flows, prepublication investments and operating and capital
requirements. Such forward-looking statements include, but are not
limited to: the strength and sustainability of the U.S. and global
economy; the duration and depth of the current recession; Educational
Publishing’s level of success in 2010 adoptions and in open territories
and enrollment and demographic trends; the level of educational funding;
the strength of School Education including the testing market, Higher
Education, Professional and International publishing markets and the
impact of technology on them; the level of interest rates and the
strength of the economy, profit levels and the capital markets in the
U.S. and abroad; the level of success of new product development and
global expansion and strength of domestic and international markets; the
demand and market for debt ratings, including corporate issuance, CDO’s,
residential and commercial mortgage and asset-backed securities and
related asset classes; the continued difficulties in the credit markets
and their impact on Standard & Poor’s and the economy in general;
the regulatory environment affecting Standard & Poor’s; the level of
merger and acquisition activity in the U.S. and abroad; the strength of
the domestic and international advertising markets; the strength and the
performance of the domestic and international automotive markets; the
volatility of the energy marketplace; the contract value of public
works, manufacturing and single-family unit construction; the level of
political advertising; and the level of future cash flow, debt levels,
manufacturing expenses, distribution expenses, prepublication,
amortization and depreciation expense, income tax rates, capital,
technology, restructuring charges and other expenditures and
prepublication cost investment.
- Actual results may differ materially from those in any forward-looking
statements because any such statements involve risks and uncertainties
and are subject to change based upon various important factors,
including, but not limited to, worldwide economic, financial, political
and regulatory conditions; currency and foreign exchange volatility; the
health of debt and equity markets, including interest rates, credit
quality and spreads, the level of liquidity, future debt issuances
including, corporate issuance, residential and commercial
mortgage-backed securities and CDO’s backed by residential mortgages,
related asset classes and other asset-backed securities; the
implementation of an expanded regulatory scheme affecting Standard &
Poor’s ratings and services; the level of funding in the education
market (both domestically and internationally); the pace of recovery in
advertising; continued investment by the construction, automotive,
computer and aviation industries; the successful marketing of new
products, and the effect of competitive products and pricing.
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- Litigation
- Regulation
- The digital transformation in education
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- 12 cases completely dismissed; 11 this year
- Eight different judges have ruled on the 12 dismissals
- Five cases have been dropped by plaintiffs
- Three motions to dismiss have been denied, pending discovery
- We believe these cases are without merit and will ask for dismissals
- Dismissals fall into three major categories:
- 1. Underwriter lawsuits
- 2. “Stock drop” suits
- 3. Suits involving state law claims
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- Clear and unambiguous takeaways from recent court decisions:
- Rating agencies are not underwriters or sellers of securities under
securities laws
- Ratings are opinions, not statements of fact
- After-the-fact criticisms of rating agencies do not support the
inference that rating agencies didn’t believe the appropriateness of
their ratings at time of issuance
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- Clear and unambiguous takeaways from recent court decisions (continued):
- Rating agencies’ alleged conflicts of interest were widely known by
investors
- Investors were adequately apprised of risks and limitations of using
credit ratings
- Not recommendations to buy, sell or hold securities
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- Dismissals have not been granted in three cases
- Abu Dhabi and Rhinebridge cases in federal court
- CalPERS case in state court in California
- What did courts decide?
- In ruling on a motion to dismiss, courts are legally required to accept
as true all of the allegations
- Must also favor the plaintiffs at this preliminary stage
- The courts’ decisions are not definitive rulings on the factual or
legal merits of the claims against S&P
- They simply allow the claims to move to discovery,
the pre-trial phase of the case
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- Abu Dhabi case
- During discovery we will show that S&P rating opinions were
available globally at no charge and widely disseminated through the
wire services
- 10 of 11 claims have been dismissed, including all of the plaintiff’s
negligence-based allegations
- CalPERS
- Judge already dismissed one of the two claims
- We remain confident in getting dismissals and regard the legal risk in
these cases as low
- We have not received a Wells notice from the SEC
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- Unresolved issues with U.S. Senate financial reform bill
- Working to resolve contradictory language
- Promises level playing field for all participants, but at the same
time proposes to lower pleading standards only for credit rating
agencies
- To impose lower pleading standards on rating agencies is unprecedented
and discriminatory
- Goal should be a single pleading standard for all
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- We fully support efforts that increase transparency, accountability and
restore confidence in markets
- But some proposals would set a precedent for more interference in the
rating process
- Could undermine analytical independence and perceptions that rating
opinions are government endorsed
- No government seal of approval on rating opinions should be a goal
shared by all
- Proposals ignore Senate bill’s strong oversight rules and new SEC rules
encouraging more competition and requiring NRSROs to manage conflicts
of interest
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- Proposals in Congress to put the government’s thumb on the ratings scale
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- Senator Dodd opposed Franken and LeMieux amendments
- Franken amendment would establish a Board appointed by the SEC to
assign a qualified NRSRO to do initial structured finance ratings
- LeMieux amendment would remove rating requirements and references from
existing laws and delete a provision requiring a study on the
implications of such a step
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- What Senator Dodd said:
- On the Franken amendment:
- “I do not know what the implications are because we have had no real
examination of [it]…I am just uneasy about what the implications can
be…I just do not know whether it is sound...”
- On the LeMieux amendment:
- “Congress could not simply repeal safety and soundness laws without
careful prior study of the impact on the markets.”
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- Senator Dodd urged colleagues to review his Committee’s bill
- “Our bill sets out a process by which overreliance on these rating
agencies can be reduced without creating risk throughout the financial
system. That is my concern. Stripping everything out of safety
and soundness in this area does not get you safety and soundness.” –
Senator Dodd
- We agree and support proposals to increase transparency, accountability
and restore confidence to financial markets
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- We continue to examine new ways to further improve our own processes
consistent with regulation—both here and abroad
- We are looking at new steps to evaluate data and the quality of the
information sources used in the ratings process
- And evaluating whether or not to rate some issues, issuers, or
transactions that don’t have a track record
- May result in rating fewer emerging companies, potentially limiting
access to funding in public markets for growth and innovation
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- S&P has taken important steps to:
- Improve rating stability
- Add value through more analysis and features
- Increase comparability of ratings
- Add more checks and balances to the ratings process
- Educate the market about ratings and the ratings scale
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- To increase transparency, S&P now regularly provides more
information about:
- The assumptions in its models
- The use of “what if” scenarios
- Stress tests that illustrate the level of stress an instrument might
withstand without defaulting
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- S&P has invested heavily in people, systems and technology to expand
its compliance efforts
- 2009: Spent about $60 million
- 2010: May spend around $75 million
- Depending on final regulations, these costs could settle down
- Strengthening analytics, increasing transparency and reinforcing the
integrity of the ratings process will enable S&P to enhance its
value to investors
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- The digital transformation of education is not about textbooks or
e-books
- The strategy:
- Providing solutions
- Linking technology, content and distribution
- Moving educational content into an interactive, adaptive, mass
customizable form
- Improving the teaching and learning experience
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- What educational publishers know:
- All content is not equal in the education marketplace
- Sequenced and correlated content is based more and more upon learning
progression
- Content counts and ignoring standards is perilous
- Digital does not disintermediate content
- Digital business model expands the addressable market. Changing the
workflow changes the opportunity.
- Digital delivery adds functionality and value
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- Digital revenue is increasing at a double-digit rate in our higher
education and digital markets
- Accounts for 15% of our revenue in these markets
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- Using technology to increase the addressable market
- Majority of our college and university textbooks are now available as
e-books
- Offering self-assessment tools for college students
- Now more than 1.2 million registered users of McGraw-Hill Connect™ and
other homework management products
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- Our elementary-high school products and services are integrating digital
components into virtually every program we produce
- We offer multimedia packages
- Mix of components varies by grade and subject
- Interactive online student editions are a part of the future that is
already here
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- ConnectED and McGraw-Hill Connect illustrate McGraw-Hill’s:
- Ability to adapt to a rapidly changing environment
- Use of technology to provide solutions our customers need to teach and
learn more effectively
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- Economy is improving
- Markets are recovering
- We expect growth in 2010
- Our year is off to a very good start
- Our financial position is strong
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- Increased the dividend for 37th consecutive year
- Annual dividend has grown at an average compound rate of 9.9% since
1974
- Resumed share buybacks this year
- 17.1 million shares were authorized in the program
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- We are investing in the growing digital and global economy to:
- Capture growing opportunities
- Improve the operating leverage across all our businesses
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- Encouraging trends in 1Q continued through April
- Pipeline for corporate issuance still looks good in May, but not at
record levels we experienced in April
- Recently, some issuers moving to sidelines because of uncertainty over
conditions in Europe, pending U.S. regulations, and widening credit
spreads
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- Growth in key education markets in 2010
- 6% to 7% in the elementary-high school market
- 5% to 7% in the U.S. higher education
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- Revenue: Expect mid single-digit decline
- Excluding $99 million from BusinessWeek divestiture, revenue will
increase in the mid single-digit range
- Operating margin: Expect to rebound into the mid-teens
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- 2010 guidance
- Expect diluted earnings per share in the
$2.55 to $2.65 range
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