Notes
Slide Show
Outline
1
2Q 2009 Earnings Call
July 28, 2009
  • Presenters:
  • Harold McGraw III
    Chairman, President and CEO


  • Robert J. Bahash
    Executive Vice President and CFO


  • Donald S. Rubin
    Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
2
Donald S. Rubin
Senior Vice President,
Investor Relations
The McGraw-Hill Companies
3
“Safe Harbor” Statement Under
The Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995
  • This presentation includes certain forward-looking statements about the Company’s businesses and our prospects, new products, sales, expenses, tax rates, cash flows, prepublication investments and operating and capital requirements. Such forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to: the strength and sustainability of the U.S. and global economy; the duration and depth of the current recession; Educational Publishing’s level of success in 2009 adoptions and in open territories and enrollment and demographic trends; the level of educational funding; the strength of School Education including the testing market, Higher Education, Professional and International publishing markets and the impact of technology on them; the level of interest rates and the strength of the economy, profit levels and the capital markets in the U.S. and abroad; the level of success of new product development and global expansion and strength of domestic and international markets; the demand and market for debt ratings, including collateralized debt obligations (“CDO”), residential and commercial mortgage and asset-backed securities and related asset classes; the continued difficulties in the credit markets and their impact on Standard & Poor’s and the economy in general; the regulatory environment affecting Standard & Poor’s; the level of merger and acquisition activity in the U.S. and abroad; the strength of the domestic and international advertising markets; the strength and the performance of the domestic and international automotive markets; the volatility of the energy marketplace; the contract value of public works, manufacturing and single-family unit construction; the level of political advertising; and the level of future cash flow, debt levels, manufacturing expenses, distribution expenses, prepublication, amortization and depreciation expense, income tax rates, capital, technology, restructuring charges and other expenditures and prepublication cost investment.


  • Actual results may differ materially from those in any forward-looking statements because any such statements involve risks and uncertainties and are subject to change based upon various important factors, including, but not limited to, worldwide economic, financial, political and regulatory conditions; currency and foreign exchange volatility; the health of debt and equity markets, including interest rates, credit quality and spreads, the level of liquidity, future debt issuances including residential and commercial mortgage-backed securities and CDOs backed by residential mortgages and related asset classes; the implementation of an expanded regulatory scheme affecting Standard & Poor’s ratings and services; the level of funding in the education market (both domestically and internationally); the pace of recovery in advertising; continued investment by the construction, automotive, computer and aviation industries; the successful marketing of new products, and the effect of competitive products and pricing.
4
Harold McGraw III
Chairman, President and CEO
The McGraw-Hill Companies
5
MHP 2Q 2009 results
  • EPS
    • 2Q 2009: $0.52
      • Includes $0.06 for a net restructuring charge and a loss on a divestiture
  • Revenue
    • 2Q 2009: Declined 12.4% to $1.5 billion compared to 2Q 2008
6
Signs of economic improvement
  • States’ budget pressures persist
    • Still see challenges in school market
  • Encouraging economic activity:
    • Improving flow of credit is helping lay groundwork for recovery
    • Spreads are narrowing and should continue to tighten
    • Money managers and insurance companies putting money to work
    • Renewed investor interest in non-financial investment-grade bonds and speculative-grade instruments
7
2Q: Took steps to prepare for future
  • $0.03 restructuring charge for workforce reduction of approximately 550 positions
    • Key step: Combining supplemental and basal operations and reduction of approximately 340 positions at McGraw-Hill Education
  • Sold Vista Research
    • Resulted in pre-tax loss of $13.8 million, or $0.03 per diluted share
  • Exploring strategic options for BusinessWeek
8
McGraw-Hill Education

Financial Services

Information & Media
9
McGraw-Hill Education:
Tale of two markets
  • 2009:
    • Declining sales in elementary-high school market
    • Sustained growth in the U.S. college and university market
  • Both trends were evident in 2Q performance
    • Will also be factors in our second half 2009 results
10
2Q 2009 segment results at
McGraw-Hill Education
  • Revenue (17.2%) to $555.2 million
    • School Education Group:
      (22.7%) to $338.6 million
    • Higher Education, Professional
      and International Group:  
      (6.9%) to $216.6 million
  • Operating Profit Declined by 70.1% to $21.0 million
    • Includes a net pre-tax restructuring charge of $11.6 million
  • Operating Margin 3.8%
11
Challenges in
elementary-high school market
  • State budgets for education are under pressure
  • Substantial cut backs in historic buying levels in adoption states
  • Reducing estimate for the 2009 state new adoption market to $500 million–$550 million range
    • Had been forecasting $550 million to $600 million
  • Without benefit of federal stimulus funds, el-hi market could decline by 15% to 20% this year
12
Outlook for
2009 state new adoption market
  • More state-level postponements not expected
    • Could be school district level postponements in economically stressed states like California
  • We expect to perform well in state new adoption market
    • Reading: California, Louisiana
    • Math: California, South Carolina, Kentucky and Oregon
    • Science: Tennessee
    • Social studies: Indiana
  • We estimate a capture rate of 30% of total available dollars in this year’s state new adoption market
13
Mixed outlook for testing market
  • Acuity continues to win new adoptions and renewals
    • Our online formative assessment program
  • Gains in formative market offset by declines in custom and off-the-shelf products
14
A strong start in U.S. college
and university market
  • Improving revenue outlook in higher education
  • Increasing our forecast for 2009
    • Now expect market to grow 5% to 7%
    • Previously forecasted 3% to 4% growth
  • We will benefit from:
    • Solid new publications list for all four imprints
    • Successful new digital offerings
    • Higher enrollments last fall and this spring
      • Indications that enrollments will grow again this fall
15
Gauging the impact of a
declining el-hi market in 2009
  • Reducing 2009 revenue guidance for the McGraw-Hill Education segment
    • Now expect revenue to decline 8.5% to 9.5%
    • Previously forecasted a 7% to 8% decrease
16
Why we expect outlook for education to improve in 2010
  • Comparisons will get easier
  • Benefits of recent restructuring will be realized
  • We expect to operate more efficiently and to lower development costs
  • Growing lineup of digital products will produce more growth
  • Federal stimulus funds will make a difference
  • State new adoption calendar improves in 2010
  • Growing enrollments
17
Why we expect outlook for education to improve in 2010
  • Comparisons will get easier next year
    • School Education Group’s revenue is off 20.1% for first half 2009
    • Expect rate of decline to diminish in
      second half
    • Easier comparisons in 2010
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Why we expect outlook for education to improve in 2010
  • Benefits of restructuring in el-hi business
    • Will begin to see benefits in second half of 2009
    • More to be realized in 2010
  • Combined basal and supplemental school operations streamlines our pre-K–12 organization
    • $11.6 million net restructuring charge for approximately 340 positions in this segment
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Why we expect outlook for education to improve in 2010
  • Lowering development costs and reducing time-to-market will improve operating effectiveness and revenue potential
    • Increasing focus on growth areas such as intervention and college and career readiness
    • Streamlining product creation in four learning solution centers
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Why we expect outlook for education to improve in 2010
  • Integration of content, technology and distribution offers growth opportunities
  • We will be increasingly digital in:
    • School market
    • Testing
    • Higher education
    • Professional
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Why we expect outlook for education to improve in 2010
  • New Center for Digital Innovation to create same digital environment in classrooms that is emerging outside school
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Why we expect outlook for education to improve in 2010
  • $25.2 billion available for Title I and IDEA programs
    • Could make a meaningful difference in some states and some product categories in second half 2009
  • Federal stimulus money is moving into states but slowly into districts
    • As of July 24, $29 billion in funding had been approved for 44 states, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico
    • First wave of stabilization funding is expected to be used to cover shortfalls and save teaching jobs in 2009, rather than new purchases
23
Why we expect outlook for education to improve in 2010
  • We expect a solid list of stimulus-funded adoptions in 3Q and 4Q
  • Administration’s focus on real-time assessments and multiple measures will provide new opportunities for Acuity
  • Stimulus package will have greater impact on el-hi market in 2010 than in 2009
  • Federal stimulus contains provisions with positive implications for postsecondary education
    • Pell Grants: Maximum increased
    • Work-Study Programs: Increased support
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Why we expect outlook for education to improve in 2010
  • An improved state new adoption calendar in 2010: Estimate about $950 million to $1 billion
  • Market should benefit from:
    • Increased availability of stimulus funds
    • Implementation of 2009 postponements in 2010
    • Return of Texas to market for K–12 reading/literature adoption (program has been funded by state legislature)
    • Florida K–12 math opportunity looks solid in 2010
      • State needs new textbooks correlated to new state standards
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Why we expect outlook for education to improve in 2010
  • Pre-K–16 enrollments are growing, according to National Center for Education Statistics
    • 56.4 million el-hi students in 2010
    • 18.6 million students in U.S. higher education
26
2009 outlook for
McGraw-Hill Education
  • Before the benefits of the federal stimulus package:
    • 15% to 20% decline in the elementary-high school market
    • 5% to 7% increase in the U.S. college and university market
  • For the segment in 2009:
    • 8.5% to 9.5% decline in revenue
    • 300 to 400 basis point decline in operating margin, excluding 2008 and 2009 restructuring charges
    • Implies a 9% to 10% operating margin
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McGraw-Hill Education

Financial Services

Information & Media
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2Q 2009 results
at Financial Services
  • Revenue (8.4%) to $673.8 million
    • S&P Credit Market Services:
      (9.9%) to $457.4 million
    • S&P Investment Services:
      (4.9%) to $216.4 million
  • Operating Profit (8.8%) to $276.4 million
    • Includes pre-tax loss of $13.8 million from divestiture of Vista Research and a pre-tax net benefit of $0.4 million from restructuring charges
  • Operating Margin 41.0%
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Key takeaways from
Financial Services’ 2Q 2009 results
  • Comparisons especially challenging
    • 2Q 2008 was biggest revenue and profit producer for the segment last year
  • Signs of a thaw in credit markets
    • Banks’ increased activity to issue debt without government guarantees
      • 1Q: Guaranteed debt was more than 80% of financial sector issuance
      • 2Q: Guaranteed debt fell to less than 50%
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Signs of a thaw in credit markets
  • Renewed ability to attract capital from private sector as capital base of banks improve
  • Liquidity has improved
    • Banks’ decreasing demand for short-term funding from Fed programs
  • Sharp drop in LIBOR
    • Spread between three-month LIBOR and Fed’s overnight rate is down to approximately 0.4%
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Signs of a thaw in credit markets
  • Greater willingness of investors to take on some risk
    • Trend contributed to 82.6% increase in U.S. speculative-grade issuance in 2Q 2009
      • Issuance was used to refinance bonds and loans
    • Significant need remains for speculative-grade companies to raise cash, especially those looking to shift debt from short-term loans into longer-term maturities
32
2Q new dollar volume issuance
  • Industrial sector issuance increased in 2Q
    • Up 2.1% in U.S. and 34.8% in Europe
  • Why issuers have turned to public markets:
    • Avoid refinancing risks over next 18 months
    • Low short-term interest rates and aversion to equity and structured finance have channeled investors toward industrial bonds
33
2Q new dollar volume issuance
  • Structured finance market declined in U.S. and in Europe
  • Significant impact of corporate activity on S&P Credit Market Services’ transaction revenue
    • Up compared to 1Q 2009, but down year-over-year
      • 31.6% increase compared to 1Q 2009
      • 21.6% decrease compared to 2Q 2008—the biggest quarter of 2008
34
Outlook for structured
finance remains uncertain
  • Residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS)
    • U.S. market has benefited in short-term from increased
      re-REMIC issuance
    • Longer-term outlook depends upon recovery in housing market
  • Majority of European structured finance transaction revenue is derived from government and central bank liquidity programs
  • U.S. and European commercial mortgage-backed securities and collateralized debt obligation markets
    • Very little new issuance
    • Very low trading volume in secondary markets
35
Outlook for
asset-backed securities market
  • TALF (Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility) stimulated new activity in U.S. ABS market
    • 2Q 2009: New issuance declined 25.8% year-over-year
    • Substantial tightening of spreads since beginning of 2009 in three consumer asset classes:
      • Autos
      • Credit cards
      • Student loans
    • We anticipate a further recovery in ABS sector
36
Improving our forecast
for 2009 transaction revenue
  • Encouraging new activity in bond market
    • Continuation will favorably impact transaction revenue in second half 2009 as year-over-year comparisons get easier
37
Easier comparisons
in second half vs. 2008
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Easier comparisons
in second half vs. 2008
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Improving our forecast
for 2009 transaction revenue
  • Now expect mid single-digit decline in transaction revenue for 2009
    • Compares to previous forecast of a
      10% to 12% decline
40
Outlook for non-transaction revenue
  • Non-transaction revenue off 3.1% in 2Q 2009
    • Reduction in fees earned for work on canceled transactions (breakage fees)
    • Impact of foreign exchange
  • Non-transaction revenue is a resilient source of
    S&P Credit Market Services’ revenue
    • 2Q 2009: 67.9% of CMS’ total revenue
    • 1H 2009: 69.6% of CMS’ total revenue
  • FY 2009: Continue to expect only a slight decline
    • Reduced breakage fees in 2009 versus 2008, and impact from foreign exchange
41
Outlook for S&P
Credit Market Services’ revenue
  • International revenue declined in 2Q 2009
    by $24.0 million
    • Foreign exchange rates account for
      $21.0 million of the decrease but will be
      less of a factor in 2H 2009
  • FY 2009: We continue to expect low single-digit revenue decline in S&P CMS’ revenue
42
Near-term outlook mixed
for S&P Investment Services
  • 2Q 2009: Revenue declined 4.9%
  • FY 2009: Now expect low single-digit decrease for the year
  • Factors contributing to revised outlook
    • Sale of Vista Research in May
    • Settlement contracts with investment banks for S&P’s equity research products expire at end of July
      • Nine firms purchasing research from S&P; will retain some of these clients
      • Signed new agreement with Citibank; more in the works
43
Outlook for index services
  • Index services declined in 2Q, primarily driven by:
    • Reduction in asset-based fees from exchange-traded funds
    • Drop in over-the-counter derivative trades linked to various S&P indices
  • Assets under management in exchange-traded funds fell by 8.0% to $189.8 billion versus same period last year
    • Sequential improvement over 1Q 2009, which ended at $158.6 billion
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Finding new ways
to grow index business
  • Increased sales of data and growth in custom index business in 2Q
  • Launched eleven new exchange-traded funds based on S&P indices in 2Q 2009
  • Now 209 exchange-traded funds based on S&P indices
    • More in the pipeline
45
Data and information
benefiting Investment Services
  • Capital IQ added customers in 2Q
    • Now serves over 2,800 clients
    • An increase of 5.2% since end of 2008
  • Expanded overseas and benefited from international growth in second quarter
46
The regulatory outlook:
Creating a global framework
  • Ongoing dialogue with policymakers, regulators, and market participants
    • U.S.: Working with SEC, White House, Treasury Department and Congress on proposed new legislation
    • Europe: Working with CESR, European Commission, and others; will continue to work with IOSCO
    • Reaching out to regulators and policymakers in Japan, Australia, and Canada
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S&P’s initiatives complement proposed new regulations
  • Focused on four key areas:
    • Quality
    • Prevention of conflicts
    • Increased transparency
    • Accountability
48
S&P’s global outreach
  • S&P’s commitment to reform
    • Addresses changes S&P has made in its businesses in the last two years
    • Appeared in Financial Times, The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, and The Washington Post
  • Full text at www.standardandpoors.com
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Timeline on new regulatory framework remains fluid
  • U.S. legislative process may be completed by end of 2009
    • Depending on congressional priorities, could finish in 2010
  • Europe: Expect new European Union legislation on credit rating agencies to be formally adopted this fall
    • Effective date for rating agencies to be in compliance expected by mid-2010
50
S&P Credit Market Services is now subject to robust regulatory oversight
  • Credit Rating Agency Reform Act of 2006 gave SEC significant regulatory authority
  • In early 2009, new wide-ranging SEC rules took effect, including:
    • Measures related to disclosure and management of potential conflicts related to issuer-pay model
    • Ban on certain conduct involving gifts and fee discussions with analysts
    • Increased record-keeping requirements for material deviations assigned from model outputs and complaints about analysts’ performance
  • More rules may be coming according to SEC
51
Accountability: The marketplace,
the SEC, and private litigation
  • Daily accountability is most important check on our ratings business
  • Accountable to SEC and subject to private litigation
    • S&P can be sued for securities fraud, like all other participants in the financial markets
    • Courts have recognized that ratings opinions are entitled to First Amendment protection against certain claims, but there is no exemption from potential liability for intentionally misleading or defrauding investors
52
The legal outlook:
Setting the record straight
  • S&P not immune from litigation or legal liability
    • Always subject to potential liability under fraud provisions of federal securities law
  • Critics’ comments on immunity and liability do not match the facts
53
Latest developments
on litigation front
  • New CALPERS lawsuit:
    • Purchased without due diligence $1.3 billion of securities based solely on ratings opinions issued by S&P, Moody’s and Fitch
    • S&P’s clear and long standing public disclosure: A rating is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold
  • We think the lawsuit is without merit and intend to defend against it vigorously
54
2009 outlook
for Financial Services
  • Summary
    • Slight decline in revenue
    • Margin decline of 225 to 275 basis points, excluding 2008 and 2009 restructuring charges and the loss on Vista Research
    • Low single-digit growth in expenses
    • Implied operating margin of approximately 39%
55
McGraw-Hill Education

Financial Services

Information & Media
56
Information & Media:
2Q 2009 results
  • Continuing weakness in the advertising market a key factor in 2Q
57
2Q 2009 segment results at
Information & Media
  • Revenue (11.5%) to $236.2 million
    • Broadcasting Group:              (23.1%) to $20.4 million
    • Business-to-Business Group: (10.2%) to $215.8 million
  • Operating Profit (41.8%) to $14.4 million
    • Includes a net pre-tax restructuring charge of $4.0 million
  • Operating Margin 6.1%
58
Factors influencing 2Q results
  • Broadcasting: Declines in national and local time sales
    • Softness in auto advertising a contributor
    • Absence of political advertising a factor in 2009
  • Print advertising soft in Business-to-Business Group
    • Includes publications in construction and aviation markets
    • BusinessWeek ad pages down 34.3% in second quarter, according to Publishers Information Bureau
59
Factors influencing 2Q results
  • Platts: Volatility contributes to strong performance
    • Oil prices have more than doubled since hitting low of $33.98 a barrel in February
  • Platts is growing in the petroleum, natural gas, nuclear and metals markets
60
Outlook for 2009:
Information & Media
  • Summary:
    • Revenue: Now expect 8% to 9% decline in view of continued weakness in advertising
      • Versus previous guidance of 5% to 6% decline
    • Operating margin: Now expect 300 to 400 basis point decline, excluding 2008 and 2009 restructuring charges
61
Outlook for 2009:
The McGraw-Hill Companies
  • Summary:
    • Revenue to decline 5.5% to 6.5% versus previous guidance of 4% to 5% decrease
    • Excluding second quarter restructuring charge and divestiture of Vista, earnings per share of $2.20 to $2.25, although it appears we will come in at low end of range
62
Robert J. Bahash
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
The McGraw-Hill Companies
63
Second half is
key to 2009 performance
  • Factors influencing second half results
    • Seasonality of education business
      • 3Q is biggest earnings contributor each year
    • Expect revenue’s rate of decline to diminish
      • Off 9.6% in first half
    • Minimal growth in expenses
      • Down 7.1% in first half
      • For full year, consolidated expenses expected to decline in low single-digit range, excluding restructuring charges in 2008 and 2009 and the loss on the divestiture of Vista Research in 2009
64
Key takeaways for 2009
  • Revenue decline in first half mitigated by stringent expense controls
    • No let up in 2H 2009
  • Company’s financial position will remain strong
  • Our actions leave us well positioned when economic conditions improve
65
Realizing the benefits of restructuring
  • 2Q restructuring charge of $24.3 million relating to reduction of approximately 550 positions
    • Partially offset by reversal of $9.1 million related to prior restructuring initiatives, for a net charge of $15.2 million pre-tax, or approximately $0.03 per diluted share of 2Q EPS
    • Cost benefits of combining McGraw-Hill Education’s operations will be largely realized in 2010
66
Key factors in
the restructuring reversal
  • Reversal of $9.1 million for prior restructuring initiatives is primarily due to two factors:
    • Although positions were eliminated, we were
      able to place affected employees in faster growing businesses
    • Lower than anticipated severance payments
      • Most pronounced at international locations where country rules made estimating severance challenging; our estimates turned out to be conservative
67
Foreign exchange rates:
A factor all year
  • Reduced revenue significantly in first half
    •  2Q: Reduced revenue by $37.2 million, or 220 basis points
    • 1H: Reduced revenue by $74.6 million, or 260 basis points
  • Based on current rates, we anticipate less impact on revenue in 2H 2009
68
Measuring impact
of foreign exchange on expenses
  • Foreign exchange reduced segment expenses, as reported
    • 2Q 2009: $32.4 million reduction
    • 1H 2009: $82.0 million reduction
  • In constant currency, segment expenses declined less than reported results (excluding restructuring charges in 2008 and 2009 and the loss on the divestiture of Vista Research)
    • 2Q 2009: Would have declined 7.6% vs. reported 10.1% decline
    • 1H 2009: Would have declined 3.8% vs. reported 7.4% decline
  • Based on current rates, we anticipate the impact on expenses to lessen in second half of 2009
69
Measuring impact
of foreign exchange on operating profit
  • Benefited operating profit by $7.3 million in 1H 2009
  • Why different top and bottom line outcomes
    • Revenue: Billings are primarily in Euros and U.S. dollars
    • Costs: Significant expenses are denominated in non-U.S. dollars
70
Measuring the
impact of incentive compensation
  • Changing levels of incentive compensation were a factor in first half; will be more significant in second half
    • 2Q 2009 benefited from $23 million decline for operating segments and corporate
    • 1H 2009 benefited by approximately $29 million
  • Expect full year incentive compensation to increase $90 million compared to 2008
    • Previously forecasted $110 million increase
    • Implies a $119 million increase in second half 2009 compared to 2H 2008 when we reduced long-term and short-term accruals, particularly in 3Q 2008
      • Resulted in a negative $39 million in stock-based compensation in 3Q 2008
71
Benefits of cost containment
at McGraw-Hill Education
  • 2009 outlook for McGraw-Hill Education
    • Revenue: Now expected to decline 8.5% to 9.5% versus previous guidance of a 7% to 8% decrease
    • Expenses: Anticipate a mid single-digit decline versus previous estimate of a low single-digit decline
    • Maintaining previous margin guidance of 300 to 400 basis point decline, excluding 2008 and 2009 restructuring charges
72
Benefits of cost containment
at McGraw-Hill Education
  • Lower expenses at McGraw-Hill Education
    • 2Q 2009: Down 11.7% year-over-year
    • 1H 2009: Down 10.0% year-over-year
    • In constant currency, first half expenses down 7.1%, benefiting from:
      • 2007 and 2008 restructuring actions
      • Lower cost of goods sold
      • Lower sales and marketing costs, which in some cases will shift to 3Q 2009
73
2009 outlook for Financial Services
  • S&P Credit Market Services transaction revenue
    • 1H 2009: Down 20%
    • 2H 2009: Expect strong growth as comparisons get easier due to depressed issuance in 2008
  • S&P Credit Market Services non-transaction revenue
    • 1Q 2009: $280 million
    • 2Q 2009: $311 million
    • Reasons for sequential increase:
      • 1Q 2009 was $22 million lower than 4Q 2008
      • Timing of renewals for certain contracts
74
Benefits of cost containment
at Financial Services
  • Margins now expected to decline 225 to 275 basis points versus previous guidance of a 250 to 300 basis point decline
    • Implies low single-digit increase in expenses and a modest improvement from our previous guidance
75
Benefits of cost containment
at Financial Services
  • 2Q 2009: Expenses down 8.0% excluding restructuring charges in 2008 and 2009 and the loss on the divestiture of Vista Research
    • In constant currency, 2Q expenses down $15.2 million, or 3.6%
      • Decrease primarily driven by reduced incentive compensation and restructuring benefits
      • Also benefited from divestiture of Vista Research and CRISIL Gas Strategies
  • 1H 2009: Expenses down 4.4%
    • In constant currency, first half expenses up 1.3%
  • 2H 2009 comparisons more difficult given increased incentive compensation and reduced impact of foreign exchange
    • Will be partially offset by benefits of restructuring actions
76
2009 outlook for
Information & Media
  • 2009 revenue and profits adversely impacted by non-cash accounting, a result of converting J.D. Power’s studies onto new online Compass platform
    • FY 2009: Now expect a $12 million decrease in revenue and a $7 million decrease in profit
      • Compares to previous guidance of $15 million decrease in revenue and $10 million decrease in profit
      • Revised estimate is due to changes in scope and timing of conversions
    • 2Q 2009: $3.4 million decrease in revenue and a
      $2.9 million decrease in profit
    • 1H 2009: $8.1 million decrease in revenue and a
      $5.2 million decrease in profit
77
2009 outlook for
Information & Media
  • Lowering guidance for operating margin
    • Additional revenue decline partially mitigated by continued cost containment initiatives
    • Forecasting a 300 to 400 basis point decline versus earlier guidance of a 200 to 300 basis point decline, excluding 2008 and 2009 restructuring charges
  • Expenses: Mid single-digit decline versus previous guidance of low single-digit decline
78
2009 outlook for corporate expenses
  • 2Q 2009: $29.3 million, a $4.2 million decline compared to same period last year
    • Largely due to reduced stock-based compensation
  • 2009: Continue to expect an increase of
    $25 million to $30 million compared to 2008
    • Largely reflects increased stock-based and short-term incentive compensation
    • Second half comparisons will be challenging, particularly in 3Q
79
Changes in the
effective tax rate for 2009
  • 2Q 2009: 36.4% versus 37.0% in 2Q 2008
  • 2009: Expect the full-year tax rate to be 36.4%
    • An approximate 60 basis point decline from 2008
80
2009 guidance for free cash flow
  • Pension contribution of about $25 million is planned in 3Q 2009
    • Incorporated into free cash flow projections
  • 2009: Still expect free cash flow in $430 to $450 million range, though probably at low end of range
    • Approximately equal to 2008, despite lower profits, due to continuing working capital improvements, focus on cost containment and prudent investments
81
2009 guidance for free cash flow
  • 1H 2009: Free cash flow improved by $337 million versus 1H 2008, driven by:
    • Significant reduction in incentive compensation payments
    • Continuing working capital improvements, particularly for inventories and accounts receivable
  • 2H 2009: More difficult comparisons given lower anticipated receipts
82
MHP’s debt position at end of 2Q
  • Net debt: Ended 2Q at $731 million, down $130 million versus 1Q and down $65 million versus year-end 2008
    • We continue to have access to the commercial paper market at reasonable rates
  • Gross debt: $1.3 billion at the end of 2Q
    • $1.2 billion in unsecured senior notes
    • $89.6 million in commercial paper outstanding
    • Offset by $556.1 million in cash, primarily foreign holdings
    • First long-term debt payment not due until 2012
83
Diluted weighted
average shares outstanding (WASO)
  • 2Q 2009: 313.0 million shares
    • 8.1 million share decrease compared to 2Q 2008
      • Primarily due to 2008 share repurchases and to lesser extent, decline in our stock price
    • Roughly flat compared to 1Q 2009
  • Fully-diluted shares at end of 2Q 2009: Approximately 313 million shares
84
Outlook for net interest expense
  • 2Q 2009: $18.5 million net interest expense
    • A $1.9 million decline from 2Q 2008
  • 2009: Still expect interest expense to be roughly comparable to 2008
85
Outlook for
prepublication investments in 2009
  • 2Q 2009: $42.3 million, down $22.9 million compared to 2Q 2008
  • 2009: Now expect approximately $200 million, down from previous guidance of $225 million and $254 million invested in 2008
    • Factors for lower level:
      • Reducing scope of some programs in current economic environment
      • Change in timing of some programs
      • Benefits of off-shoring and other efficiencies
86
Outlook for capital expenditures
for property and equipment in 2009
  • 2Q 2009: $8.9 million, compared to $25.2 million in same period last year
    • Reflects year-over-year reductions in technology spend and real estate improvements
  • 2009: Now expect $75 million to $80 million, versus previous estimate of $90 million
87
Outlook for
non-cash items
  • Amortization of prepublication costs
    • 2Q 2009:  $71 million, compared to $66 million in same period last year


    • 2009: Continue to expect a range of
      $275 million to $280 million
      • Compares to $270 million in 2008
88
Outlook for
non-cash items
  • Depreciation
    • 2Q 2009:  $28.8 million,  $1.6 million lower than same period last year


    • 2009: Still expect approximately $130 million
89
Outlook for
non-cash items
  • Amortization of intangibles
    • 2Q 2009:  $11.4 million,  compared to $13.1 million for same period last year


    • 2009: Now expect approximately $50 million, versus previous estimate of $55 million
90
Outlook for
unearned revenue in 2009
  • End of 2Q 2009: $1.1 billion
    • Roughly flat year-over-year and with 1Q 2009
    • In constant currency, grew 2.6% versus prior year
    • Financial Services represents approximately 75% of MHP’s unearned revenue
  • 2009: Still expect to grow slightly in 2009
91
2Q 2009 Earnings Call
July 28, 2009
  • Presenters:
    Harold McGraw III
    Chairman, President and CEO
  • Robert J. Bahash
    Executive Vice President and CFO
  • Donald S. Rubin
    Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
92
2Q 2009 Earnings Call
July 28, 2009
  • Replay Options
  • Internet replay available for one year
  • Go to www.mcgraw-hill.com/investor_relations
  • Click on the Earnings Announcement link under
    Investor Presentation Webcasts


  • Telephone replay available through August 27, 2009
  • Domestic: 866-419-8651
  • International: +1-203-369-0780
  • No password required