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- Presenters:
- Harold McGraw III
Chairman, President and CEO
- Robert J. Bahash
Executive Vice President and CFO
- Donald S. Rubin
Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
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- This presentation includes certain forward-looking statements about the
Company’s businesses, new products, sales, expenses, tax rates, cash
flows, prepublication investments and operating and capital
requirements. Such forward-looking statements include, but are not
limited to: the strength and sustainability of the U.S. and global
economy; Educational Publishing’s level of success in 2008 adoptions and
in open territories and enrollment and demographic trends; the level of
educational funding; the strength of School Education including the
testing market, Higher Education, Professional and International
publishing markets and the impact of technology on them; the level of
interest rates and the strength of the economy, profit levels and the
capital markets in the U.S. and abroad; the level of success of new
product development and global expansion and strength of domestic and
international markets; the demand and market for debt ratings, including
collateralized debt obligations (“CDO”), residential mortgage and
asset-backed securities and related asset classes; the continued
difficulties in the credit markets and their impact on Standard &
Poor’s and the economy in general; the regulatory environment affecting
Standard & Poor’s; the level of merger and acquisition activity in
the U.S. and abroad; the strength of the domestic and international
advertising markets; the volatility of the energy marketplace; the
contract value of public works, manufacturing and single-family unit
construction; the level of political advertising; and the level of
future cash flow, debt levels, manufacturing expenses, distribution
expenses, prepublication, amortization and depreciation expense, income
tax rates, capital, technology, restructuring charges and other
expenditures and prepublication cost investment.
- Actual results may differ materially from those in any forward-looking
statements because any such statements involve risks and uncertainties
and are subject to change based upon various important factors,
including, but not limited to, worldwide economic, financial, political
and regulatory conditions; currency and foreign exchange volatility; the
health of debt and equity markets, including interest rates, credit
quality and spreads, the level of liquidity, future debt issuances
including residential mortgage backed securities and CDOs backed by
residential mortgages and related asset classes; the implementation of
an expanded regulatory scheme affecting Standard & Poor’s ratings
and services; the level of funding in the education market (both domestically
and internationally); the pace of recovery in advertising; continued
investment by the construction, computer and aviation industries; the
successful marketing of new products, and the effect of competitive
products and pricing.
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- EPS
- 2Q 2008: $0.66
- Includes pre-tax restructuring charge of
$23.7 million, or $0.05 per diluted share,
primarily for severance costs relating to a workforce
reduction of 395 positions
- Revenue
- 2Q 2008: Declined 2.6% to $1.7 billion
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- Housing recession and credit crunch in financial markets continue to
impact MHP’s results
- Housing market expectations from David Wyss,
S&P’s chief economist:
- Housing prices to bottom out in first half of 2009
- Large supply of unsold existing homes continues to weigh on the market
- Housing sales and starts to bottom out in 3Q 2008
- Prices will probably drop by another 10%
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- Federal Reserve not expected to change interest rates at August 5th
meeting
- Next move: Rate hike in 2Q 2009
- Wyss’ forecast for U.S. GDP:
- Growth of 1.7% in 2Q 2008 and 1.8% in 3Q 2008 as consumers spend rebate
checks
- Negative growth in 4Q 2008 and
1Q 2009, followed by 3% growth in 2Q 2009
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- Most states’ education budgets are increasing in new fiscal year that
started on July 1
- Average increase of 3.5% this year vs. 10% last year according to
McGraw-Hill Education survey of 38 states
- Reductions in only three states; two are flat
- Pressure on state budgets could lead to pick up in new bond issuance
- A plus for Standard & Poor’s
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- 2Q 2008 segment results
- Revenue + 3.6% increase to $670.8 million
- Operating profit Reduced by $10.9 million to
$69.5 million
(includes a pre-tax restructuring charge of $8.5 million)
- Operating margin 10.4% versus 12.4% last year
- (restructuring charge reduced operating margin by 126 basis points)
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- School Education Group
- Revenue: + 6.9% to $438.2
million
- Higher Education, Professional
and International Group
- Revenue: - 2.1% to $232.6
million
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- 2008: Expect to capture about one-third of this year’s state new
adoption market
- 2007: $820 million market opportunity
- 2008: $900 to $950 million market opportunity
- We expect to produce solid results in key disciplines and key adoption
states
- Biggest 2008 opportunities: Reading and math
- Key adoption states: Florida, Texas and California
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- Florida: Exceptional year taking shape
- Treasures, our balanced basal program, has been widely adopted
- Alternative basals, Imagine It! and Reading Mastery Plus, will enhance
capture rate
- Our products will account for more than half of 2008’s Florida K–5
reading market
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- Texas
- Did very well with new state-specific balanced basal math program
- California
- Science (K-8): Expect to build on 2007’s success in sizeable
second-year adoption
- Math (K-8): Expect good results with new state-specific balanced basal
and Everyday Mathematics
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- Reading/Literature (K–12)
- Expect solid results in Alabama, Indiana, Louisiana, and Oklahoma
- Spotlight on Music is leading the elementary market
- Fine arts, health, business and vocational lines are performing well in
states adopting these categories
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- Enjoying some success although market remains sluggish
- Boost last week when Texas Education Agency announced a new $15 million
opportunity for reading intervention programs
- New funding will be spent during 2008-2009 school year on the Texas
intensive reading initiative for grades 4-8
- Three of our intervention programs have been adopted
- Represent comprehensive print and digital solutions for students
reading below grade level
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- Solid year taking shape in state new adoption market
- Bulk of open territory orders traditionally come in 3Q
- Market should grow 1% to 2%
- Expect to gain share in overall K–12 market
- Market should grow 4% to 5%
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- Acuity continues to win new customers
- Winning new business with our other testing series
- TABE offers diagnostic assessments and instructor support for adult
students
- LAS Links series for English-language learners
- Nevada extended contract for three years to serve nearly 80,000
English-language learners
- System helps ensure compliance with NCLB requirements
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- States adding a growth component to school accountability programs
- Growth model looks at an individual student’s academic performance
- Determines if student is on track to become proficient
- Requires development of a vertical scale to see how students are
progressing from grade to grade
- We have strong expertise in vertical scaling
- TerraNova testing series has vertical scales
- Acuity’s vertical scales show growth through formative assessment
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- HPI markets softened in 2Q as bookstores cut orders and reduced
inventory
- Some college textbook distributors shifted timing of orders for the
fall semester from late June into July
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- Expect softness in professional markets for balance of the year
- Softness is a combination of:
- Tough comparisons; last year had benefit of new edition of Encyclopedia
of Science and Technology
- Impact of economy on 2008 bookstore sales
- Expect U.S. college and university business to grow about 4% to 6% this
year
- Sales of our digital, custom and career product lines are showing
stronger growth
- Outlook is mixed in international markets
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- Slower growth in higher education, professional and international
markets may reduce rate of increase in revenue for McGraw-Hill Education
- New estimate: Revenue growth of 4% to 6% in 2008
- Original forecast called for growth of 6% to 8%
- Segment’s estimate for operating margin unchanged
- Expect 50 to 100 basis point decline for 2008
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- 2Q 2008 segment results
- Revenue -10.4% to $735.5 million
- Operating profit -25.4% to $299.2 million
- Operating margin 40.7%, vs. 48.9% in 2Q 2007
- (restructuring charge reduced operating margin by just over 200 basis
points)
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- 1H 2008 segment results
- Operating margin 40.5% including 2Q restructuring charge
- (restructuring charge reduced operating margin by 110 basis points)
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- Diversification contributes importantly to S&P’s results
- Strategy buffers Standard & Poor’s against the decline in new
issuance
- Cost containment will continue to be a priority
- Guidance for 2008 remains unchanged
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- If decline experienced in 1H 2008 in structured finance continues for
remainder of year, segment revenue would decline
7% to 9%
- Would also expect a 500 to 600 basis point drop in operating margin
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- Investment Services
- 2Q 2008: Up 22.8%
- 1H 2008: Up 20.4%
- Still expect double-digit revenue growth for non-ratings businesses for
balance of year
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- Capital IQ continues to add customers here and abroad
- Now serving more than 2,400 clients
- 23% increase vs. 2Q 2007
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- $206.3 billion in assets under management in ETFs based on S&P
indices at end of 2Q 2008
- 15.5% increase compared to 2Q 2007
- Sales of custom indices and data also increased
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- Robust trading in exchange-traded derivatives based on S&P indices
- Average daily volume of contracts: 2,820,000
in 2Q, up 25% vs. same period last year
- Trading of over-the-counter derivatives increased substantially due in
part to our products
- Investment banks license S&P’s products to create structured
vehicles linked to their performance
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- New S&P indices in 2008:
- 18 new ETFs launched in 2Q 2008
- 31 new ETFs launched in 1H 2008 vs. 46 for all of 2007
- Now a total of 175 ETFs based on S&P indices
- More indices planned for 2H 2008
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- Unearned revenue increased 12.0% to just over $840 million in 2Q 2008
- Expect unearned revenue to continue growing
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- Closely managing costs while making investments
- Ensure S&P is prepared for turnaround in credit markets and growth
in non-ratings business
- Measured approach to restructuring:
- Eliminated approximately 170 positions at end of 2007
- Cut another 246 in 2Q 2008
- Reduced incentive compensation
- Hiring remains selective
- Reduction in discretionary expenses a priority
- Continue to examine management structure and make process improvements
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- New issue dollar volume down:
- 75.4% in April
- 81.8% in May
- 84.0% in June
- 79.0% for 1H 2008
- Only asset-backed securities issuance is up after six months
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- Investment-grade issuers showed strength in 2Q as better-known issuers
attracted receptive investors
- Nearly all recent deals have been substantially oversubscribed;
indication there is plenty of cash available
- Corporate outlook for 2H promising although speculative-grade issuance
will remain weak
- Expect more growth in public finance
- State and local government pipeline continues to look strong
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- Expect growth in international markets in 2H 2008
- Will benefit from geographic expansion into Gulf and Central and
Eastern Europe
- Refinancing requirements of industrials in Europe should be source of
growth
- Activity remains very slow in structured market
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- Focus will be on secondary market trades and repackaging
- S&P may have opportunities to rate some resecuritizations, or
Re-REMICs
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- Some market participants believe covered bonds could stimulate U.S.
mortgage market
- Effort in U.S. to create a legal framework for covered bonds
- If effort succeeds, large capitalized banks could be important issuers
- Two levels of protection with covered bonds makes them attractive
- Covered bonds are senior debt obligations of the issuing institution
secured directly on a portfolio of specific assets
- Issuer is obligated to pay interest and principal on bonds
- If issuer defaults, assets in covered-asset pool are also available to
repay covered bonds
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- $25 trillion of securitized assets have been issued in last eight years
- Majority of assets are still in the market and need to be monitored,
revalued and priced for trading in the secondary market
- S&P created FIRMS, Fixed Income and Risk Management Services to tap
this market potential
- Provides market intelligence and analytic insight for risk-driven
investment analysis, including debt, structured finance and derivatives
markets
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- Offer a rebranded and integrated platform for analysis and modeling of
structured products
- Offer IMAKE, a new integrated credit risk modeling platform to help
investors develop credit risk criteria for investing and lending
- Built out S&P’s global data libraries and provide state-of-the-art
data management tool kits
- Integrate S&P’s proprietary modeling into evaluations to offer
expertise in valuing complex securities
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- Partner with Super Derivatives to create the largest coverage of assets
available from one offering
- Build out quantitative fixed income market research capabilities to
drive a thought leadership position with investors
- Re-launch RatingsDirect™ completely redesigned to offer capabilities to
create a credit workflow and integrated credit portal
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- MHP won its first court decision related to subprime litigation
- Court dismissed Blomquist action
- Suit filed in California last August alleging various state and
federal claims against numerous financial institutions, government
agencies, McGraw-Hill and individuals
- New suit was filed in July, for total of five lawsuits
- Latest suit filed against Barclays Bank and others, including
McGraw-Hill
- Alleges losses in two structured investment vehicles and the
confirmation of allegedly “false” ratings by S&P
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- New Jersey Carpenter Health and Vacation Funds filed three separate
lawsuits against issuers, underwriters and others including McGraw-Hill
- Actions concern losses on mortgage-backed securities and allegedly
inappropriate credit ratings
- Class action suit filed last August is being moved to U.S. District
Court for the Southern District
of New York
- Plaintiffs seek damages relating to decline in value of MHP’s stock
price because senior management allegedly failed to warn investors
about problems in structured market and S&P’s RMBS and CDO ratings
- We believe all remaining lawsuits are without merit
- In our view, legal risk from these actions remains low
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- S&P remains actively engaged with regulatory issues and is making
progress on its commitment to be part of the solution
- Working with policymakers and market participants to enable greater
transparency
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- SEC held two public meetings in June to discuss proposed new rules and
regulations for NRSROs
- June 11: SEC discussed comprehensive set of rules that have potential
to bring more transparency to structured market
- June 25: SEC met to discuss use of NRSRO ratings in its rules
- Broker-dealer net capital rule
- Money market fund investment rule
- Comments due September 5
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- July 8: SEC issued report after comprehensive 10-month examination of
three ratings agencies
- Some critical conclusions did not receive a lot of attention:
- No evidence found by SEC staff that decisions about ratings methodology
or models were based on attracting or losing market share
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- (cont.)
- No indication that ratings agencies compensated analysts in a manner
contrary to their policies
- SEC recognized that ratings agencies enhanced their procedures in
connection with their registration as NRSROs in 2007
- Report noted further improvements to manage conflicts of interest
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- At conclusion of July 8 report, SEC called for more documentation of
ratings process and recommended S&P conduct reviews in certain areas
- S&P will be implementing these recommendations and taking steps to
strengthen its ratings processes accordingly
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- S&P responded to SEC’s June 11 request for comments on proposed
rules to bring more transparency to structured market
- S&P basically supports the SEC proposals
- We believe dialogue with policymakers and regulators is important and
so do policymakers
- Issues are complex and merit discussion
- S&P responded on two levels:
- Commentary on proposals
- Observations on specific legal and related questions raised by SEC
staff
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- We believe any new SEC rules must be narrowly tailored as required by
law and should not regulate the substance of credit ratings or
otherwise impair the value of the rating agencies’ independent opinions
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- S&P agrees with SEC that it should have policies and procedures
that prevent it from structuring products it rates; S&P already
does
- S&P is concerned about interference with free flow of information
between ratings agencies and issuers
- Communications should be encouraged, not inhibited
- S&P believes costs of proposed rules for rating agencies and the
market have been underestimated by SEC
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- SEC also seeking comment on rule changes affecting use of ratings to
meet capital requirements
- We can continue to operate successfully if rules are changed; already
do so outside U.S.
- We would be concerned if proposed changes lead to unintended disruption
in financial markets
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- Expect to see draft of proposed regulations from European Commission
- We believe any steps European regulators consider for additional
oversight of rating agencies would be best addressed though globally
coordinated approach
- Recognizing benefits of consistency for investors and issuers
operating in international business
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- We continue to believe any new or currently proposed legislation,
regulations or judicial determinations would not have a material adverse
effect on our financial condition or results of operations
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- Summary
- Legal and regulatory risk remains low
- Double-digit revenue growth for S&P Investment Services
- Revenue for segment could be off 7% to 9% for year if first half
decline in structured finance continues for remainder of year
- Expect a 500 to 600 basis point drop in operating margin
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- 2Q 2008 segment results
- Revenue + 6.8% to $266.9 million
- Operating profit +68.2% to $24.8 million
- Operating margin 9.3%, up from 5.9% in 2Q 2007
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- Revenue grew 7.8% in 2Q to $240.4 million
- Business-to-business products key to 2Q results
- Advertising pages declined 11% at BusinessWeek
- Strong global growth in Platts’ news and pricing and consulting growth
at J.D. Power were key to 2Q performance
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- Proportionately, Platts does more business overseas than any other MHP
product
- Benefiting from demand for petroleum and natural gas products
- Demand shows no sign of diminishing in today’s volatile energy markets
- Platts is expanding in new areas now serving
steel–the world’s third-largest commodity market
- Working with market participants to bring price transparency to steel
market
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- Critical part of McGraw-Hill Construction’s transition
- Electronic information producing increasing share of Construction’s
sales
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- Ad pages off 17.3% through July 28 issue, according to Publishers
Information Bureau
- Circulation is growing
- New syndicated studies indicate that BusinessWeek’s audience is younger
and more affluent than in past years
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- Broadcasting revenue: $26.5 million, off 1%
vs. 2Q 2007
- Gains in political advertising offset by declines in the base business,
primarily national sales
- Expect political advertising to be strong in 2H 2008
- August: Colorado stations will benefit from state primary
- California: Expect ballot to include at least 11 propositions,
including controversial same-sex marriage proposition
- All our TV markets will benefit from general election on November 4th
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- Summary
- More progress this year
- Revenue growth of 6% to 8%
- Improvement in operating margin
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- Summary
- Year-over-year comparisons easier in second half
- Still expect 2008 EPS in $2.65-$2.75 range
- Excluding 2Q 2008 restructuring charges and related benefits
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- 2Q 2008: 4 million shares repurchased for $170.8 million; average price
of $42.69
- 1H 2008: 7.4 million shares repurchased for $304.8 million; average
price of $41.19
- 2008 buyback target: 15 million shares
- Capacity:
- 20.6 million shares remaining in 2007 buyback program
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- Net debt: $1.4 billion
- As of June 30, increase of approximately
$170 million versus end of 1Q 2008
- Gross debt: $1.7 billion
- As of June 30, comprised of $1.2 billion of unsecured senior notes and
$526 million in commercial paper outstanding
- Offset by $355 million in cash, primarily foreign holdings
- We are focused on maintaining debt levels comparable to year-end 2007
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- Approximately $600 million before acquisitions or share repurchases in
2008
- 1H 2008: $319 million decline compared to same period last year.
Results impacted by:
- Reduced profits at Financial Services and corresponding impact on
working capital
- Increase in working capital usage as McGraw-Hill Education prepares
for strong adoption opportunities
- Cash outflows for construction costs for new data center that were
accrued in 2007
- One-time shift in timing of our employee profit-sharing contribution
from 2007 to 2008
- Payout of 2007 incentive compensation awards in 1Q 2008
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- Free cash flow in 2H 2008 expected to approximate free cash flow for 2H
2007
- Will benefit from:
- Easier comparisons at Financial Services
- Reduced investments for purchases of property and equipment as second
half of 2007 reflected significant investment in our data center
building
- Anticipated lower cash tax payments
- Normal seasonal working capital improvements
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- 2Q 2008: $20.4 million net interest expense
- Compared to $12.1 million in 2Q 2007
- 2008: Continue to expect $75-$85 million for year
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- 2Q 2008: 321.1 million shares
- 29.2 million share decrease compared to 2Q 2007
- 2.3 million share decrease compared to 1Q 2008
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- 2Q 2008: Decreased $7.5 million to
$33.5 million, compared to a year ago
- Primarily driven by lower incentive compensation accruals and stringent
expense controls
- 2008: Expect mid single-digit decrease
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- Year-over-year, 2Q expenses essentially flat on adjusted basis:
- Reported expenses: Increased 4.0%, or $16.6 million
- Adjusted expenses: Increased 0.4%, or $1.5 million
- Excludes $15.2 million second quarter restructuring charge
- Comparison benefits from $30 million reduction in incentive
compensation and savings from 4Q 2007 restructuring actions
- Expense savings partially offset by impact of:
- Acquisitions in 2007 and 2008
- Weakening U.S. dollar on non-U.S. dollar expense
- Investments in fast-growing areas, such as CRISIL,
Capital IQ and Index Services
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- Sequential 2Q expenses increased
$52 million versus 1Q:
- Primary contributors:
- $15.2 million restructuring charge
- $20 million increase in incentive compensation provision versus
depressed first quarter levels
- $17 million increase for our strong growth businesses: Capital IQ,
Index Services and CRISIL
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- Year-over-year, expenses increased in 2Q:
- Reported expenses: Increased 6.1%
- Adjusted expenses: Increased 4.6%, or $26 million
- Increase driven by:
- $9.2 million in higher prepublication costs
- Increased marketing costs
- Investments in technology, including $3.3 million in data center
migration costs
- Mitigated by:
- Benefits from 4Q 2007 restructuring and reduced stock-based
compensation
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- Data center is key to delivering more products and services
electronically
- Migration costs:
- 2Q 2008: $8.9 million
- 1H 2008: $13.1 million
- 2008: Expect $40 million
- McGraw-Hill Education represents $18 million
of 2008 cost
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- 2Q 2008: $1.1 billion
- Increased 7.5% year over year
- Financial Services: Grew 12% in 2Q
- Segment represents approximately three quarters of McGraw-Hill’s
unearned revenue
- McGraw-Hill Education: Reduction in 2Q due to accelerated fulfillment
of orders for basal texts and related components including increased
use of electronic delivery
- 2008: Expect growth in mid single-digit range compared to 2007 given
forecast for slower revenue growth
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- 2008: Expect effective tax rate of 37.5%
- Approximately same as 2007 on full-year basis
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- 2Q 2008: $65.3 million, compared to
$75.2 million in same period last year
- 2008: Now expect $270 million
- Down from previous $290 million estimate
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- 2Q 2008: $25.2 million, vs. $60.7 million
in 2Q 2007
- Higher last year while building data center
- Returned to more normalized rate this quarter
- 2008: Still expect $160 million
- Normal replacement expenditures
- Additional purchases of software and technology equipment for new data
center
- Continued investments in technology
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- Amortization of pre-publication costs
- 2Q 2008: $66.0 million, compared
to
$56.8 million for 2Q 2007
- 2008: Lowering guidance to $275 million
- $35 million increase versus 2007 driven by significant prepublication
investments
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- Depreciation
- 2Q 2008: $30.4 million, compared
to
$28.8 million in 2Q 2007
- 2008: Still expect approximately $125 million
- Completion of data center
- Purchases of new technology equipment for data center
- Other increases in capital expenditures
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- Amortization of intangibles
- 2Q 2008: $13.1 million, compared
to
$11.5 million in 2Q 2007
- 2008: Expect approximately $52
million
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- Presenters:
Harold McGraw III
Chairman, President and CEO
- Robert J. Bahash
Executive Vice President and CFO
- Donald S. Rubin
Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
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- Replay Options
- Internet
- Go to www.mcgraw-hill.com/investor_relations
- Click on the Earnings Announcement link under
Investor Presentation Webcasts
- Telephone (Available through August 30)
- Domestic: 800-297-0781
- International: +1-203-369-3239
- No password required
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