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- Chairman, President and CEO
The McGraw-Hill Companies
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- This presentation includes certain forward-looking statements about the
Company’s businesses and our prospects, new products, sales, expenses,
tax rates, cash flows, prepublication investments and operating and
capital requirements. Such forward-looking statements include, but are
not limited to: the strength and sustainability of the U.S. and global
economy; the duration and depth of the current recession; Educational
Publishing’s level of success in 2009 adoptions and in open territories
and enrollment and demographic trends; the level of educational funding;
the strength of School Education including the testing market, Higher
Education, Professional and International publishing markets and the
impact of technology on them; the level of interest rates and the
strength of the economy, profit levels and the capital markets in the
U.S. and abroad; the level of success of new product development and
global expansion and strength of domestic and international markets; the
demand and market for debt ratings, including collateralized debt
obligations (“CDO”), residential and commercial mortgage and
asset-backed securities and related asset classes; the continued
difficulties in the credit markets and their impact on Standard &
Poor’s and the economy in general; the regulatory environment affecting
Standard & Poor’s; the level of merger and acquisition activity in
the U.S. and abroad; the strength of the domestic and international
advertising markets; the strength and the performance of the domestic
and international automotive markets; the volatility of the energy
marketplace; the contract value of public works, manufacturing and
single-family unit construction; the level of political advertising; and
the level of future cash flow, debt levels, manufacturing expenses,
distribution expenses, prepublication, amortization and depreciation
expense, income tax rates, capital, technology, restructuring charges
and other expenditures and prepublication cost investment.
- Actual results may differ materially from those in any forward-looking
statements because any such statements involve risks and uncertainties
and are subject to change based upon various important factors,
including, but not limited to, worldwide economic, financial, political
and regulatory conditions; currency and foreign exchange volatility; the
health of debt and equity markets, including interest rates, credit
quality and spreads, the level of liquidity, future debt issuances
including residential and commercial mortgage-backed securities and CDOs
backed by residential mortgages and related asset classes; the
implementation of an expanded regulatory scheme affecting Standard &
Poor’s ratings and services; the level of funding in the education market
(both domestically and internationally); the pace of recovery in
advertising; continued investment by the construction, automotive,
computer and aviation industries; the successful marketing of new
products, and the effect of competitive products and pricing.
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- September 2 decision in our motion to dismiss breaks no new legal ground
- No change in First Amendment protection already afforded rating
agencies
- Fundamentally, a favorable litigation development for S&P
- Another reason we continue to believe our legal risk is low
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- U.S. administration, Congress, and SEC are looking for new ways to bring
regulation, oversight, and greater transparency to financial markets
- S&P has worked hard to be part of the solution
- Taken many steps to strengthen S&P’s governance and analytics
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- Encouraged by new issuance in the bond market
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- New generation of digital products creates new growth opportunities
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- Court’s ruling broke no new legal ground
- District Court expressly reaffirmed that rating agencies are generally
afforded legal protection under the First Amendment
- First Amendment provides no protection from potential liability for
opinions not honestly held when issued
- Could always be sued for purported fraud if a complaint contains
sufficient allegations
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- Approximately three dozen lawsuits from plaintiffs and counsel who think
they have stated causes of action against S&P
- We continue to see extraordinary level of confusion and false
speculation in public commentary about our legal situation
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- Critical but little noted fact:
In ruling on a motion to dismiss, Court is legally required to
accept as true all facts alleged by plaintiffs
- “All facts are drawn from the First Amended Complaint and are presumed
to be true for the purpose of these motions.”
- 10 of 11 claims were dismissed, including negligence-based allegations
- Decision on remaining claim is not a definitive ruling; simply allows
claim to move to pre-trial phase
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- Court’s ruling is procedural and preliminary;
it has to accept all allegations as true
- Plaintiffs alleged that ratings were intentionally misleading and not
broadly disseminated
- First Amendment protections not available based on specific allegations
- Fraud requires a very high level of proof
- We will have an opportunity to ask Court to dismiss case by summary
judgment
- Court will consider actual facts and applicable law, not just
plaintiffs’ allegations
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- Prepared for a marathon and not a sprint
- Rulings will require a knowledgeable and thoughtful assessment in order
to avoid misunderstanding we have seen recently
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- Underwriter claims based on Securities Act of 1933
- S&P is not an underwriter or seller of any securities
- Shareholder claims, including class action under Section 10(b) of
Securities Exchange Act
- State law claims
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- We continue to work for globally consistent oversight
- Preserving analytical independence
- Maintaining a level playing field
- Coordinating with CESR, the European Commission, IOSCO, and others to
prepare for regulation by mid-2010
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- U.S.: Sharing our views on proposed legislation with SEC, Treasury, and
Congress
- New bill may emerge in the next month
- Legislation could slip to 2010
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- Open meeting with SEC on September 17 will discuss:
- New rules on disclosure and conflict of interest requirements for
NRSROs
- Elimination of references to NRSROs in some rules and forms
- Proposals to address credit rating shopping
- Future of SEC rule 436(g)
- Permits issuers to disclose ratings in registration statements without
obtaining prior consent of rating agencies
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- Public hearing with National Association of Insurance Commissioners on
September 24
- Role of credit rating agencies in the insurance regulatory system
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- Signs of thaw in credit markets
- Still expect a double-digit increase in transaction revenue at S&P
Credit Market Services in second half
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- Tone of business is continuing to improve
- Important reason why we expect year-over-year increase in second half
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- Bright spots:
- Growth in college and university market
- Growing demand for digital products and services
- Elementary-high school market probably won’t show improvement until 2010
- College market to grow 5% to 7% this year
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- Confluence of content, technology and distribution improves our ability
to develop new sources of revenue
- El-hi market: We offer multimedia packages, not just a textbook
- Mix of components vary by grade and subject
- Interactive, online student editions are here
- Teachers enthusiastic about digital resources we provide
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- College market: More than 95% of textbooks can be downloaded as eBooks
through CourseSmart.com
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- Research-based interactive assignment and assessment platform
- Incorporates cognitive science to customize learning process
- Offered in 18 disciplines for 2009
- Will soon expand to
30 disciplines
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- Online assignments with immediate, automatic feedback
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- Recorded class lectures are searchable
- Students can replay specific portions of any lecture by searching on a
key word or phrase
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- Smart software diagnoses what a student has, or has not mastered, for
success in the course
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- McGraw-Hill Connect is the most advanced and flexible all-digital
teaching and learning platform in the college market
- Subscription-based model represents an opportunity to diversify revenue
stream
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- New pilot program with Chegg, an online college textbook rental service
- McGraw-Hill supplies approximately 25 titles
- In return, we receive a portion of the rental revenue
- Exploring relationships with other college textbook suppliers
- Access rental revenue for first time
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- Rental model not so different from traditional purchase and re-sale
model
- Students want information in a textbook for a defined period and sell
back when course is over
- Purchase price minus resale value is close to rental price or fee
- eBooks represent similar opportunity
- eBooks are about half the price of the print version
- Recognizes economics of rental market and the fact that there is no
used book market for eBooks
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- Used books are one-third of college market
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- Bringing same digital environment to the classroom that today’s students
have embraced outside school
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- Enrollments will continue to grow
- U.S. administration announced multibillion dollar program to boost
enrollment in community colleges
- Get more students in school and improve graduation rates
- Federal stimulus funds will make a difference in education, particularly
in 2010
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- El-hi state new adoption market calendar improves in 2010 to $950
million to $1 billion
- Up from $500 million to $550 million in 2009
- Texas K-12 reading and literature and Florida
K-12 math represent more than 70% of opportunity and funding is
solid
- In 2010 we will realize benefits of the 2009 restructuring of our
education business
- Comparisons will get easier
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- Still hope that more than $100 billion in American Recovery and
Reinvestment Act funding will make some difference in 2009
- Funds are reaching market slowly
- Initial distributions being used to plug holes in budgets and save
teaching and staff positions
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- Department of Education accelerated stimulus spending by one month
- Nearly $11.4 billion in funding was made available on September 1 for
Title I, IDEA and Vocational Rehabilitation programs
- Could lead to some ordering of classroom materials later this year
- More realistic to expect funding to have greater impact in 2010
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- McGraw-Hill’s financial position will remain strong
- Protecting a healthy balance sheet and maintain liquidity
- Cost control will be stringent
- Anticipate minimal growth in costs in second half and low single-digit
decline for the year, excluding 2008 and 2009 restructuring charges and
loss on sale of Vista Research
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- Free cash flow after dividends is estimated at $430 million to $450
million, although probably at low end of range
- Continued working capital improvements, cost containment and prudent
investments will enable us to produce free cash flow about equal to
2008, despite lower profit
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- Revenue to decline 8.5% to 9.5%
- Operating margin will be in 9% to 10% range, excluding 2008 and 2009
restructuring charges
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- Revenue to decline slightly
- Operating margin at approximately 39%, excluding 2008 and 2009
restructuring charges and loss on sale of Vista Research
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- Revenue to decline 8% to 9% in view of continued weakness in advertising
- Operating margin will decline 300 to 400 basis points, excluding 2008
and 2009 restructuring charges
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- Revenue to decline 5.5% to 6.5%
- With continued tight expense controls, we expect earnings per share in
the $2.20 to $2.25 range, excluding second quarter restructuring charge
and divestiture of Vista Research, although it appears we will come in
at low end of range
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