|
1
|
|
|
2
|
- Chairman, President and CEO
The McGraw-Hill Companies
|
|
3
|
- This presentation includes certain forward-looking statements about the
Company’s businesses, new products, sales, expenses, tax rates, cash
flows, prepublication investments and operating and capital
requirements. Such forward-looking statements include, but are not
limited to: the strength and sustainability of the U.S. and global
economy; Educational Publishing’s level of success in 2008 adoptions and
in open territories and enrollment and demographic trends; the level of
educational funding; the strength of School Education including the
testing market, Higher Education, Professional and International
publishing markets and the impact of technology on them; the level of
interest rates and the strength of the economy, profit levels and the
capital markets in the U.S. and abroad; the level of success of new
product development and global expansion and strength of domestic and
international markets; the demand and market for debt ratings, including
collateralized debt obligations (“CDO”), residential mortgage and
asset-backed securities and related asset classes; the continued
difficulties in the credit markets and their impact on Standard &
Poor’s and the economy in general; the regulatory environment affecting
Standard & Poor’s; the level of merger and acquisition activity in
the U.S. and abroad; the strength of the domestic and international
advertising markets; the volatility of the energy marketplace; the
contract value of public works, manufacturing and single-family unit
construction; the level of political advertising; and the level of
future cash flow, debt levels, manufacturing expenses, distribution
expenses, prepublication, amortization and depreciation expense, income
tax rates, capital, technology, restructuring charges and other
expenditures and prepublication cost investment.
- Actual results may differ materially from those in any forward-looking
statements because any such statements involve risks and uncertainties
and are subject to change based upon various important factors,
including, but not limited to, worldwide economic, financial, political
and regulatory conditions; currency and foreign exchange volatility; the
health of debt and equity markets, including interest rates, credit
quality and spreads, the level of liquidity, future debt issuances
including residential mortgage backed securities and CDOs backed by
residential mortgages and related asset classes; the implementation of
an expanded regulatory scheme affecting Standard & Poor’s ratings
and services; the level of funding in the education market (both domestically
and internationally); the pace of recovery in advertising; continued
investment by the construction, computer and aviation industries; the
successful marketing of new products, and the effect of competitive
products and pricing.
|
|
4
|
- Federal takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac should stabilize mortgage
markets and restore some investor confidence
- Shaken again by collapse of Lehman Brothers, sale of Merrill Lynch, and
federal bailout of AIG
- Recovery in housing market will take more time
- David Wyss, S&P’s chief economist, expects housing prices to drop
by another 10% before bottoming out late next year
|
|
5
|
- Wyss’ current forecast:
- Modest gross domestic product growth of 1.3% in 3Q 2008 followed by two
quarters of decline
- Economy will start to recover by 2Q 2009 and will be growing 3% in 4Q
2009
- State and local governments face more challenging conditions
|
|
6
|
- Cost containment
- Maintenance of a strong balance sheet
- Continued share repurchase
- Still plan to buy back a total of 15.0 million shares in 2008
- 1H 2008: Repurchased 7.4 million shares at average price of $41.19
|
|
7
|
|
|
8
|
- How severe will the downturn be in the bond market?
- How long will the downturn last?
- What are our legal risks?
- What are the regulatory risks?
|
|
9
|
|
|
10
|
|
|
11
|
|
|
12
|
|
|
13
|
|
|
14
|
|
|
15
|
- S&P will emerge from current turmoil stronger and with enhanced
capacity to serve its customers
- Plays important part in improving relevant information in capital
markets
- Taking a series of actions to increase transparency of ratings
analytics and the way S&P operates
|
|
16
|
- Powerful trends that contributed to our growth in past will benefit us
in the future
- Access to capital still the keystone to economic growth for developed
and emerging countries
- Securitization, disintermediation, growth of public markets
- Adding to S&P’s worldwide capabilities
- Signed new affiliation agreement with rating agency in China
|
|
17
|
- S&P committed to:
- Transparency
- Strengthening of the governance process
- Helping to restore confidence in capital markets
- Working with regulators and policymakers here and abroad
- Recent S&P correspondence available at www.standardandpoors.com in
the “Press Room”
|
|
18
|
- Two key points from S&P’s July 24th
response to SEC request for commentary on proposed rules for
NRSROs:
- We share SEC’s desire to enhance investor understanding and address
potential conflicts of interest in credit ratings industry
- We believe any new SEC rules must be narrowly tailored as required by
law; not regulate substance of credit rating or impair value of
independent opinions
|
|
19
|
- S&P’s sent letter on Sept. 5 to SEC commenting on proposed rules to
remove NRSRO reference from a series of rules and forms
- S&P operates successfully outside U.S. without these rules
- We believe S&P can continue to operate successfully in U.S. if SEC
changes these rules
- We are concerned if proposed changes lead to unintended disruptions in
financial markets
|
|
20
|
- S&P’s recent response to European Commission’s proposed regulatory
framework (document available at www.standardandpoors.com in the “Press
Room”)
- Key points:
- European Commission can meet its objectives through a
globally-consistent solution based on IOSCO’s recently revised code for
rating agencies
- The Commission should:
- Preserve analytical independence of ratings agencies to ensure
objectivity
- Use principles-based approach to develop new regulations
- Designate single point of registration
|
|
21
|
- July: Won our first court decision related to subprime litigation when
Court dismissed the Blomquist action
- Judgment dismissing the action is now on appeal
- State of Connecticut’s lawsuit alleges that artificially low municipal
credit ratings by S&P and other rating agencies created the need for
additional bond insurance and higher interest payments
- State is trying to use litigation to dictate what bond rating it
receives
- Clearly violates First Amendment rights
|
|
22
|
- We continue to defend against lawsuits
- Believe all are without factual or legal merit
- In our view, legal risk remains low
- Continue to believe any new or currently proposed legislation,
regulations or judicial determination would not have a material adverse
effect on our financial condition or results of operations
|
|
23
|
- Non-transaction revenue buffers S&P against decline in new issue
volume
- 53.8% of 2007 ratings revenue
- Grew by 12.5% in 1H 2008
- Will continue to grow in 2H 2008
- Comes from annual fees for frequent issuer programs, surveillance,
subscriptions, and sale of products and services
|
|
24
|
- S&P Investment Services
- World’s leading index provider
- Continue to expand with Capital IQ, Compustat and CUSIP Global Services
- Revenue grew 20.4% in 1H 2008
- Despite events on Wall Street this week, we expect double-digit growth
for 2008
|
|
25
|
- Creating alpha generating strategy indices across the globe for a
growing number of sophisticated investors
- 31 new exchange-traded funds based on S&P indices launched in first
half
- S&P/CITIC is leader in creating benchmarks for both equity and
fixed income markets in China
- Assets under management in exchange-traded funds based on S&P
indices increased 10.6% year-over-year to $212.7 billion as of the end
of August
|
|
26
|
- Capital IQ continues to deliver new value-added data sets and grow
internationally
- Offers global coverage of fixed income securities and added financials
for more than 100,000 U.S. and European private companies
- Credit default swap pricing data for up to 10 years
|
|
27
|
- Cost containment a priority in areas of weakness
- Continue to invest in promising areas that will drive growth
- Eliminated 418 positions since end of last year; continue to look for
opportunities to streamline organization
- Legal, regulatory risk remain low
- Diversification is paying off; expect double-digit growth for balance of
year from S&P Investment Services
- Recovery in new issue market remains hard to predict
|
|
28
|
|
|
29
|
- Industry sales of K-12 basals
- July: Up 5.8% from 2007
- After 7 months: Up 6.6%
- Supplemental market soft, but total basal and supplemental is up
- July: Up 5.0% from 2007
- After 7 months: Up 3.9%
|
|
30
|
- School Education Group on track to capture about one-third of this
important market
- Successes in following adoptions:
- Florida: Performed well with reading and reading intervention programs
- Texas: K–5 math adoption
- Louisiana and Oklahoma: K–5 reading
- South Carolina and West Virginia: K–5 music
- Arkansas: 6–12 social studies
- Georgia: 6–12 science
- Alabama: 6–12 literature
- California: Doing well in first-year math adoption and second-year
science adoptions; some 2008 decision-making still ongoing
|
|
31
|
- 1Q: Florida’s two largest district’s decided to implement K-5 reading
over two years instead of buying in 2008
- 2Q: California’s largest district announced it would delay math until
2009 due to funding concerns
- 3Q: Some adoptions are being postponed in open territory and adoption
states because of funding
|
|
32
|
- Unexpected softness in 3Q for residual sales
- Sales to replace damaged copies and accommodate increased enrollments
- Seeing drop-off in adoption states and open territory
- Some softness is due to
temporary funding issues
- Some sales will be made up in 4Q but not all will be recouped in 2008
|
|
33
|
- Cutbacks in residual orders may reflect funding problems that schools
are experiencing
- Sharp reduction in Reading First from $1 billion last year to less than
$400 million this year
- Lower tax revenues have forced states to budget tightly
- Our analysis of 49 recently-enacted state budgets shows an average
increase of 2.9% in education appropriations
- Supplemental sales have trended downward all year
- Industry is off 7.9% after seven months
|
|
34
|
- No longer projecting 4% to 5% growth this year based on the current
situation
- Now expect slower growth in 2008, but we need to close books on
third quarter before making more precise forecast
- Unprecedented pattern with state new adoption sales holding up but
seeing a dramatic drop in residual sales
|
|
35
|
- 3Q is typically slow for testing, but there is some evidence of state
budget problems
- Custom contract revenue will be impacted by several major customers who
are reducing scope of their contracts to reduce costs
- Good news with Acuity, new formative assessment system
- Steadily adding new customers and seeing increased orders for other
shelf products such as assessments for English-language learners
|
|
36
|
- Solid growth in digital products across disciplines and sale of
vocationally-oriented products from our new career education group
- Gains are being offset by:
- Lower retention rates for backlist titles and some shortfalls in new
lists
- Down year in our revision cycle; fewer major titles to drive sales
- More students ordering used books over the Internet
- We still expect growth in 2008, but probably will not achieve 4% to 6%
for the year, or match the industry’s growth rate
|
|
37
|
- Growth in digital products will be a key to outlook in professional
markets
- Revenue from digital subscription and digital licensing rights have
increased significantly year-to-date
- International markets: Still anticipating a good third quarter
|
|
38
|
- A strong performance in the state new adoption market
- Unexpected softness in August as residual sales have slipped
- Slower than expected growth in el-hi market this year
- Good growth in digital products in higher education and professional
markets
- Slower than expected growth for traditional products
|
|
39
|
|
|
40
|
- Group will show improvement this year despite weakness in print
advertising
- Revenue was up 5.7% for first half even though BusinessWeek’s
advertising pages were off 15%
- Platts: Global growth to meet demand for information in volatile energy
markets
- Progress in construction: Electronic delivery of information is playing
a critical role
- J.D. Power: Growth here and abroad
|
|
41
|
- Driven by user-generated content and embraces links to outside content
- Users create topics around business issues that matter to them and
connect with BusinessWeek’s community
- Partnerships:
- LinkedIn to leverage personal networks
- Federation Media which taps into the blogosphere
|
|
42
|
- The digital transformation continues
- Progress in the Business-to-Business markets
|
|
43
|
- Slow down in GDP growth in U.S., Europe and Japan
- Slow pace of recovery in housing market
- Continued softness in structured finance market
- Possible effect of state and local budget concerns on spending in
education, particularly el-hi school market
- Slower than anticipated growth in higher education
|
|
44
|
- Now seems more likely that 2008 earnings per share will come in at the
lower end of our $2.65 to $2.75 range
- Excludes second quarter restructuring charges and associated benefits
|
|
45
|
|