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- Presenters:
- Harold McGraw III
Chairman, President and CEO
- Robert J. Bahash
Executive Vice President and CFO
- Donald S. Rubin
Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
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- This presentation includes certain forward-looking statements about the
Company’s businesses and our prospects, new products, sales, expenses,
tax rates, cash flows, prepublication investments and operating and
capital requirements. Such forward-looking statements include, but are
not limited to: the strength and sustainability of the U.S. and global
economy; Educational Publishing’s level of success in 2008 adoptions and
in open territories and enrollment and demographic trends; the level of
educational funding; the strength of School Education including the
testing market, Higher Education, Professional and International
publishing markets and the impact of technology on them; the level of
interest rates and the strength of the economy, profit levels and the
capital markets in the U.S. and abroad; the level of success of new
product development and global expansion and strength of domestic and
international markets; the demand and market for debt ratings, including
collateralized debt obligations (“CDO”), residential and commercial
mortgage and asset-backed securities and related asset classes; the
continued difficulties in the credit markets and their impact on
Standard & Poor’s and the economy in general; the regulatory
environment affecting Standard & Poor’s; the level of merger and
acquisition activity in the U.S. and abroad; the strength of the
domestic and international advertising markets; the strength and the
performance of the domestic and international automotive markets; the
volatility of the energy marketplace; the contract value of public
works, manufacturing and single-family unit construction; the level of
political advertising; and the level of future cash flow, debt levels,
manufacturing expenses, distribution expenses, prepublication,
amortization and depreciation expense, income tax rates, capital,
technology, restructuring charges and other expenditures and
prepublication cost investment.
- Actual results may differ materially from those in any forward-looking
statements because any such statements involve risks and uncertainties
and are subject to change based upon various important factors,
including, but not limited to, worldwide economic, financial, political
and regulatory conditions; currency and foreign exchange volatility; the
health of debt and equity markets, including interest rates, credit
quality and spreads, the level of liquidity, future debt issuances
including residential and commercial mortgage backed securities and CDOs
backed by residential mortgages and related asset classes; the
implementation of an expanded regulatory scheme affecting Standard &
Poor’s ratings and services; the level of funding in the education market
(both domestically and internationally); the pace of recovery in
advertising; continued investment by the construction, automotive,
computer and aviation industries; the successful marketing of new
products, and the effect of competitive products and pricing.
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- EPS
- 3Q 2008: $1.23
- Includes pre-tax restructuring charge of
$23.4 million, or $0.05 per diluted share,
for a workforce reduction of approximately 270 positions
- Revenue
- 3Q 2008: Declined 6.4% to $2.0 billion
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- 2Q and 3Q restructuring charges
- $47.1 million pre-tax
- $29.4 million after-tax
- Reduced approximately 670 positions
- Including actions announced in 4Q 2007, approximately 1,275 positions
have been eliminated through 3Q 2008
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- More support by U.S. government for financial sector and to restore
confidence in credit markets
- U.S. Treasury Secretary Paulson provided details on bank
recapitalization measures
- Fed Chairman Bernanke is supporting another stimulus package
- More rate cuts now likely
- Another Fed rate cut could come this week
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- Housing prices won’t hit bottom until end of 2009, according to David
Wyss, S&P’s chief economist
- Housing recession and credit crunch in financial markets continue to
impact our results
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- Now forecasting 2008 EPS of $2.63 to $2.65
- Excludes restructuring charges, but includes the associated benefits
- Forecast assumes 4Q EPS of $0.40 to $0.42
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- Revenue Segment declined 3.8% to
$1.1 billion
- School Education Group declined 9.1% to $623.5 million
- Higher Education, Professional and International Group increased 3.7%
to $507.8 million
- Operating Profit Decreased 14.5% to $351.5 million
- Includes $5.4 million restructuring charge
- Operating Margin 31.1%
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- Revenue Segment declined 1.0% to
$2.1 billion
- Operating Profit Decreased 17.5% to $330.7 million
- Operating Margin 15.5%
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- Industry sales up 3.9% through July, according to AAP
- Market started slipping in August
- 16.6% decline in August
- 17.6% decline in September
- Industry sales down 3.3% though September
- We expect el-hi market to decline about 3% to 4% in 2008
- We expect to gain share in 2008
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- Historically, residual sales are heaviest in third quarter
- Sales of previously adopted textbooks and materials for new enrollments
or to replace lost, damaged books
- Sales of workbooks, lab manuals and other consumable softbound
materials
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- Decrease was most pronounced in open territory states
- More dependent on local property tax revenues
- These states are mainly in northern and central regions which face
higher fuel costs for bus transportation and heating
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- School districts face increased costs for personnel that are frequently
indexed to rate of inflation
- Salaries, health care, pensions
- New budgets not sufficient to cover inflationary increases
- Expenses considered discretionary became low-priority items
- Situation aggravated by cutback in Reading First
- Dropped from more than $1 billion last year to only $383 million this
year
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- Buying newly-adopted programs for a few grades
- Will add more grades in the future
- Buying classroom set and having classes reuse books versus one book per
student
- More photocopying of workbooks
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- Growing enrollments
- Schools will face shortages of standards-aligned materials
- Need materials to prepare students for NCLB’s accountability
requirements
- Ordering new workbooks more cost effective than copying old ones
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- Captured approximately 31% of total available dollars in state new
adoption market
- Florida K–5 reading: Expect to capture more than 70%
- K–12 reading/literature: Expect to take about 40%
- Texas K–5 math: Project a 31% capture rate
- California:
- Did very well in first year of math adoption
- Led first-year science adoption; 2nd year sales following
positive trend
- Music, fine arts, health, business and vocational lines performed well
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- Custom contract revenue declined
- Reductions in volume of work performed for Indiana and Missouri
- Expiration of contracts in Mississippi and Tennessee
- Continue to make progress with:
- Acuity, our new formative testing program
- LAS Links, assessment for English-language learners
- TABE, diagnostic assessments and instructional resources for adult
students
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- Peak ordering normally occurs in July and August
- In 2008, surge in September as bookstores waited to gauge student
demand
- Still expect total market to grow 4% to 6% this year
- Our higher education group will underperform industry
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- Good growth in 3Q with our main academic imprints
- Business & Economics
- Science, Engineering & Mathematics
- Humanities, Social Sciences & World Languages
- Off-cycle year for revisions of traditional best-sellers will dampen
2008 performance
- Strong gain in Career Education product line
- Strengthened position in allied health market and computer information
technology market
- Programs combine software and print
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- Digital products grew rapidly
- Study guide products like Homework Manager led the way
- Students embracing generation of products that provide course-critical
content that helps them study and prepare for exams more efficiently
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- 618 McGraw-Hill
titles now on
CourseSmart.com,
industry’s eBook
website
- Cost-effective way to
provide samples to
instructors and
increase awareness
among students
- Partnerships with 50
campuses
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- Digital subscriptions and licensing had favorable impact
- Could not offset softness at retail as bookstores cut back on orders and
reduced inventory in face of economic conditions
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- Professional
- Recently released English and Spanish editions of Harrison’s Principles
of Internal Medicine continued to perform well
- Higher Education
- Products sold well in Europe, the Middle East and India
- School
- Benefited from back-to-school sales in Spain and Mexico
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- Summary
- Growth in higher education markets here and abroad in 3Q
- Digital revenue continued to grow rapidly in higher education and
professional markets
- Strong performance in state new adoption market with 31% capture rate
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- Summary
- Slowdown in el-hi market in August and September signals a 3% to 4%
decline in industry sales this year
- Growth in college market of 4% to 6% this year
- Expect to increase share in el-hi market and to underperform U.S.
college and university market
- Now expect revenue to decrease 1% to 2% in 2008 with operating margin
decline of 300 to 350 basis points
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- Revenue Segment declined 14.2% to
$651.5 million
- S&P Credit Market Services declined 24.2% to $423.2 million
- S&P Investment Services increased 13.5% to $228.2 million
- Operating Profit Decreased 18.8% to $281.6 million
- Includes $4.1 million restructuring charge
- Operating Margin 43.2%
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- Revenue Segment declined 12.0% to
$2.0 billion
- Operating Profit Decreased 23.3% to $840.9 million
- Operating Margin 41.4%
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- Europe: Substantial drop in structured finance issuance resulting from
widening spreads and decline in fundamentals
- Asia-Pacific: Some issuance softness; CRISIL, in India, continues to
post solid gains
- Actively exploring opportunities to expand S&P’s international
footprint
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- Non-transaction revenue: Another measure of our diversification strategy
- 3Q 2008: Up 2.3%
- First nine months of 2008: Up 8.9%
- Non-transaction revenue includes surveillance fees, annual contracts,
and subscriptions
- All three categories grew in 3Q 2008
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- Up 7.2% to just over $805 million at
end of 3Q
- A sequential decline compared vs. 2Q
- Slower growth reflects seasonality of revenue and decline in ratings
activity
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- S&P Investment Services
- Another quarter of double-digit growth
- Capital IQ and index services: Key contributors to 13.5% revenue
increase in 3Q
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- Capital IQ is adding customers here and abroad
- Now serves more than 2,500 clients
- Client base: Up 22.2% in past 12 months
- Capital IQ continues to expand product offering and functionality
- Recently acquired copy of Reuters Estimates and Reuters
Research-on-Demand databases
- Adds to global analytical solutions offering
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- Index services benefited from:
- Higher volume for exchange-traded derivatives
- Increase in assets under management in ETFs based on S&P indices
- Growth in data and custom indices
- $223.5 billion in assets under management in ETFs based on S&P
indices at end of 3Q 2008
- 6.7% increase vs. 3Q 2007
- Growth due, in part, to use of ETFs for hedging; asset class mix also
acts as natural hedge
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- 27% year-over-year increase in average daily volume for exchange-traded
derivatives based on S&P indices
- Daily volume averaged 3.7 million contracts in 3Q
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- New in 2008:
- 45 ETFs launched in first nine months of 2008 vs. 46 for all of 2007
- 189 ETFs based on S&P indices now available worldwide
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- Additions to family of fixed income indices
- October: S&P/LSTA U.S. Leveraged Loan 100 index
- October: S&P U.S. Commercial Paper Index
- Signed agreement with Korean Exchange to develop new set of indices in
September
- S&P has partnerships with primary exchanges in Australia, Tokyo,
Milan, Toronto, Moscow, Hong Kong and India
- More in the pipeline this year from Index Services
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- Improvement hinges on some market recovery in fourth quarter
- Visibility of extent and speed of recovery remains low
- Growing concern about economy
- Markets are assessing new rescue programs from federal government and
how to respond to various fiscal stimulus packages
- Infusion of capital into banks should help return confidence and credit
to the market
- Decline in Libor is a sign credit markets may be on the mend
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- When investors return, it will be back to basics
- Less leverage
- Less risk
- More plain vanilla securities
- Outlook for year assumed a low level of activity in structured finance
- Guidance:
- Segment revenue will decrease 11% to 12%
- 425 to 475 basis point decline in operating margin
- Previously expected 500 to 600 basis point decline
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- S&P’s president, Deven Sharma, testified before U.S. House of
Representatives Committee on Oversight and Government Reform last week
- Basic charges against rating agencies:
- Structured finance ratings were not objective
- S&P’s only concern was profits
- Business model is prone to conflict
- It is difficult to be heard in a rush to judgment.
A must read: Sharma’s complete testimony at www.standardandpoors.com
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- Policies and procedures for S&P’s ratings business:
- Has strong policies against analysts structuring transactions S&P
rates
- Does not provide consulting services to issuers
- Does not give higher ratings based on how it is paid
- Does make its ratings, criteria and methodologies available and open to
market comment
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- No business model is without potential conflicts
- A responsible organization like S&P has policies and procedures in
place to manage them
- Our professionals have never been compensated upon the amount of
revenue they generate
- Credit analysts do not negotiate fees
- Rating decisions are always made by a committee and not by individuals
- We have a team of quality officers to promote analytical rigor and
safeguard the ratings process
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- A thorough examination by the SEC found “there is no evidence found that
decisions about ratings methodology or models were based on attracting
or losing market share”
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- Under the issuer-pays model, S&P makes all its ratings public, free
of charge, in real-time
- Credit ratings are not investment advice or recommendations to buy, sell
or hold a security
- Credit ratings primarily address the likelihood that an obligation will
be repaid on time with interest
- Ratings are not static
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- S&P recognizes the seriousness of the current dislocation in capital
markets and that not all the forecasts used in its ratings analysis have
been borne out
- S&P is committed to:
- Constant improvement
- Greater transparency
- Independence
- S&P announced 27 actions to enhance ratings process and promote
confidence. Update available at www.standardandpoors.com
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- S&P’s record in rating AAA U.S. structured finance securities
- Default rate is only 0.28% for those rated between January 1978 and
October 13, 2008
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- S&P expects to learn more about regulatory initiatives next month
- SEC could issue new rules for rating agencies next month
- November 12: European Commission expected to issue its proposals on
rating agencies
- We believe global consistency should be based on IOSCO’s recently
revised code for the rating agencies
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- Not a lot has changed since we reviewed legal risk at an investor
conference on September 18
- New lawsuit filed at end of September against Federal National Mortgage
Association and number of defendants, including The McGraw-Hill
Companies
- We believe the litigation is without merit
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- We continue to believe any pending legal, governmental, or
self-regulatory proceedings or investigation will not result in a
material adverse effect on our financial condition or results of
operations
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- Summary
- Revenue will decline 11% to 12% in 2008
- Operating margin will decline 425 to 475 basis points this year
- Low visibility in credit markets
- Double-digit revenue growth for S&P Investment Services in 2008
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- Revenue Segment increased 5.3% to
$265.7 million
- Business-to-Business Group grew 5.4% to $240.7 million
- Broadcasting up 4.4% to $25.0 million
- Operating Profit Increased 22.6% to $22.8 million
- Includes $13.9 million restructuring charge
- Operating Margin 8.6%
- Restructuring charge reduced operating margin by 523 basis points
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- Revenue Segment up 5.1% to $776 million
- Operating Profit Increased 37.3% to $59.4 million
- Operating Margin 7.7%
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- Platts—a key revenue driver
- Leading provider of global energy information to customers in more than
160 countries
- Customers depend on our news and pricing information to help with
decision making in uncertain times
- Our information is embedded in the customers’ workflow
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- Aviation Week benefited from Farnborough Air Show
- Held every other year in third quarter
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- BusinessWeek’s advertising pages were down 13.9% in 3Q
- Continues to attract new subscribers and improve its renewal rate
- Launched Business Exchange
- Enables users to create topics around business issues and connect with
BusinessWeek’s community
- Social media will create opportunity to leverage context and content
for users and advertisers
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- Solid increase in political advertising on TV offset softness in local
and national advertising in 3Q
- Our Denver station benefited from:
- Colorado status as swing state in presidential election
- Advertising by candidates for U.S. Senate and House
- Significant spending on issues
- Our Indianapolis station benefited from:
- Governor’s race
- Presidential campaign
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- Summary
- More progress this year with Business-to-Business Group
- Solid growth in political advertising for Broadcasting
- Revenue growth of 4% to 6%
- Improvement in operating margin
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- 2008: Now forecasting EPS of $2.63 to $2.65
- Projection excludes restructuring charges, but includes the associated
benefits
- Forecast assumes 4Q EPS of $0.40 to $0.42
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- Outlook for 2009
- Budgeting process is underway
- We’re not in a position to make a forecast until process is complete
- We know state new adoption market will not match this year’s total
- Texas not scheduled in 2009
- 2010 state new adoption market improves sharply
- College and university market is counter-cyclical
- Enrollments increase in times of economic difficulty
- Visibility in financial markets is low
- Will be important to see when various stimulus packages begin to have
an impact
- Focused on managing costs and maintaining liquidity
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- 4Q 2007: Revenue for S&P Credit Market Services dropped by 14.1% and
segment was off by 7.2%
- 4Q 2008: Easier comparisons, but segment faces challenges
- Outlook for 4Q 2008 revenue
- Credit Market Services: Don’t expect a pick up
- S&P Investment Services: Growth will probably slow again in 4Q, but
will increase by double-digits in 2008
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- McGraw-Hill Education
- 4Q is seasonally slow
- El-hi market: We may realize some sales from postponements, but too
hard to call
- U.S. college and university: Introducing new titles in 4Q but timing of
pick up is difficult to gauge
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- For MHP: $23.4 million restructuring charge in 3Q
- Primarily for severance costs related to workforce reduction of
approximately 270 positions
- Contain costs and mitigate impact of current and future economic
conditions
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71
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- For MHP: $117 million year-over-year decline in incentive compensation
- $71 million reduction in long-term, stock-based compensation
- Lowered accruals for long-term awards due to reduced operating results
- Resulted in negative $39 million for stock-based compensation in 3Q
- Balance of year-over-year reduction was in short-term incentive
compensation
- Cash savings in 2008 will not be realized until awards are paid out in
March 2009
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- Measuring the impact of reduced incentive compensation across the
company:
- McGraw-Hill Education: $15.9 million
- Financial Services: $60.0 million
- Information & Media: $12.4 million
- Corporate: $29.1 million
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73
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- Sequential 3Q expenses decreased
$66 million, or 15.2% vs. 2Q as reported
- Contributors:
- $46 million decrease in incentive compensation
- Reduction in 3Q vs. 2Q restructuring charges of $11 million
- Savings from restructuring actions
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75
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- Migration costs:
- 3Q 2008: $8 million
- First nine months of 2008: $21 million
- 2008: Expect $30-35 million
- $5-10 million lower than original forecast
- McGraw-Hill Education represents about half of the total cost
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- 3Q 2008: Decreased $28 million, or 74.3%, to
$9.7 million, compared to a year ago
- Primarily driven by lower incentive compensation accruals for the
quarter
- Excluding the reduction in incentive compensation accruals, expenses
were approximately flat with prior year
- 2008: Now expect about $50 million decrease
- Approximate $10 million decline in 4Q
- Previously forecast mid single-digit decrease
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- 3Q 2008 net debt: $1.0 billion
- As of September 30, decrease of approximately
$349 million versus end of 2Q 2008 as a result of free cash
flow generated in 3Q
- 3Q 2008 gross debt: $1.5 billion
- As of September 30, comprised of $1.2 billion of unsecured senior notes
and $307 million in commercial paper outstanding
- Offset by $485 million in cash, primarily foreign holdings
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- Outstanding commercial paper is supported by new $1.15 billion credit
facility
- Commercial paper rating is F-1/P-1
- Given current liquidity issues in market, important to be a Tier 1
issuer for pricing and availability
- Plan to reduce commercial paper outstanding through balance of year with
seasonal cash inflows
- Objective: Maintaining 2008 net debt at year-end 2007 level
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- Overseas cash is primarily invested in money market instruments
- Repatriation does not impact net debt but causes swings between where
cash is held and commercial paper outstanding
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81
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- 3Q 2008: $22 million net interest expense
- Compared to $15.4 million in 3Q 2007
- 2008: Expect approximately $80 million for year
- Expect 4Q to be roughly comparable with 3Q
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82
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- 3Q 2008: Approximately $500 million, roughly flat with 2007
- 2008: Expect approximately $500 million versus previous $600 million
forecast
- New forecast due to reduction in 3Q revenue and impact on cash
collections in 4Q
- Carefully managing costs and capital investments to help offset lower
operating cash flow
- Will continue to monitor our investment priorities given uncertain
economic environment
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- First nine months 2008: Approximately $40 million spent on acquisitions
- October: Enhanced Capital IQ’s data offering
- Acquired copy of Reuters Estimates and Reuters Research-on-Demand
databases
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84
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- 3Q 2008: 3.5 million shares repurchased for $142.4 million; average
price of $40.70
- First nine months of 2008: 10.9 million shares repurchased for $447.2
million; average price of $41.03
- Capacity: 17.1 million shares remaining in 2007 buyback program
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85
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- Remain committed to returning cash to shareholders through dividend
payments and share repurchases
- Must balance commitment while maintaining appropriate liquidity during
difficult credit environment
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- 3Q 2008: 317.2 million shares
- 20.5 million share decrease compared to 3Q 2007
- 3.9 million share decrease compared to 2Q 2008
- Fully-diluted shares at end of 3Q approximately 315 million shares
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- 3Q 2008: $1.1 billion
- Increased 6.4% year-over-year
- Financial Services: Grew 7.2% in 3Q
- Year-over-year decline at S&P’s Credit Market Services accounts
for slower growth
- Segment represents approximately three quarters of McGraw-Hill’s
unearned revenue
- 2008: Expect minimal growth for Corporation given forecast for slower
revenue growth at Financial Services
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88
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- 3Q 2008: 37.5%
- 2008: Expect to be approximately same for full-year
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89
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- 3Q 2008: $65.4 million, compared to
$76.9 million in same period last year
- 2008: Continue to expect $270 million
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90
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- 3Q 2008: $17.7 million vs. $63.0 million
in 3Q 2007
- Higher last year while building data center
- 2008: Now expect $115 million versus previous $160 million forecast
- Delaying a number of capital projects due to slower operating free cash
flow and uncertain economic environment
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91
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- Amortization of pre-publication costs
- 3Q 2008: $124.6 million,
compared to
$110.5 million for 3Q 2007
- 2008: Continue to expect $275 million
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92
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- Depreciation
- 3Q 2008: $30.0 million, compared
to
$26.2 million in 3Q 2007
- 2008: Continue to expect approximately $125 million
- Completion of data center
- Purchases of new technology equipment for data center
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93
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- Amortization of intangibles
- 3Q 2008: $13.6 million, compared
to
$11.7 million in 3Q 2007
- 2008: Continue to expect approximately $52 million
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94
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- Taking a hard line on company expenses while prudently managing
investments to support areas of high growth potential
- Protecting our strong financial position
- Priorities are clear:
- Reduce expenses
- Ensure we have resources to fund growth
- Maintain liquidity
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95
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- Presenters:
Harold McGraw III
Chairman, President and CEO
- Robert J. Bahash
Executive Vice President and CFO
- Donald S. Rubin
Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
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96
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- Replay Options
- Internet replay available for one year
- Go to www.mcgraw-hill.com/investor_relations
- Click on the Earnings Announcement link under
Investor Presentation Webcasts
- Telephone replay available through November 27)
- Domestic: 888-433-2210
- International: +1-203-369-3151
- No password required
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