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- Presenters:
- Harold McGraw III
Chairman, President and CEO
- Robert J. Bahash
Executive Vice President and CFO
- Donald S. Rubin
Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
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- This presentation includes certain forward-looking statements about the
Company’s businesses, new products, sales, expenses, tax rates, cash
flows, prepublication investments and operating and capital
requirements. Such forward-looking statements include, but are not
limited to: the strength and sustainability of the U.S. and global
economy; Educational Publishing’s level of success in 2008 adoptions and
in open territories and enrollment and demographic trends; the level of
educational funding; the strength of School Education, Higher Education,
Professional and International publishing markets and the impact of
technology on them; the level of interest rates and the strength of the
economy, profit levels and the capital markets in the U.S. and abroad;
the level of success of new product development and global expansion and
strength of domestic and international markets; the demand and market
for debt ratings, including collateralized debt obligations (CDO),
residential mortgage and asset-backed securities and related asset
classes; the regulatory environment affecting Standard & Poor’s; the
strength of the domestic and international advertising markets; the
volatility of the energy marketplace; the contract value of public
works, manufacturing and single-family unit construction; the level of
political advertising; and the level of future cash flow, debt levels,
manufacturing expenses, distribution expenses, prepublication,
amortization and depreciation expense, income tax rates, capital, technology,
restructuring charges and other expenditures and prepublication cost
investment.
- Actual results may differ materially from those in any forward-looking
statements because any such statements involve risks and uncertainties
and are subject to change based upon various important factors,
including, but not limited to, worldwide economic, financial, political
and regulatory conditions; currency and foreign exchange volatility; the
health of capital and equity markets, including future interest rate
changes and concerns regarding the credit quality of subprime mortgages
adversely impacting future debt issuances of U.S. residential mortgage
backed securities and CDOs backed by subprime residential mortgages and
related asset classes; the implementation of an expanded regulatory
scheme affecting Standard & Poor’s ratings and services; the level
of funding in the education market (both domestically and
internationally); the pace of recovery in advertising; continued
investment by the construction, computer and aviation industries; the
successful marketing of new products, and the effect of competitive
products and pricing.
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- Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 75 basis points on January 22
- David Wyss, S&P’s chief economist, thinks odds of U.S. slipping into
recession is 50/50
- Wyss thinks peak of economic growth occurred last November and trough
will come this September/October
- Housing recession will be with us all year
- Prices won’t bottom until end of 2008
- Expects more rate cuts by Fed as early as March
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- 2007 segment results
- Revenue + 7.2% to $2.7 billion
- Operating profit Increased by 21.5% to $400.0 million
- Includes 4Q 2007 pre-tax restructuring charge of $16.3
million
- - Reflects $5.6 million pre-tax restructuring charge in 3Q 2006
- - Reflects 10.4 million pre-tax restructuring charge in 4Q 2006
- Operating margin 14.8%, up from 13.0% in 2006
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- 4Q 2007 segment results
- Revenue + 4.3% to $550.9 million
- Operating profit Loss of $791,000
- - Includes restructuring charge (excluding restructuring charge,
operating profit increased 5.0%)
- Operating margin Declined, but unchanged compared to 2006 if
restructuring charges excluded
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- School Education Group
- 2007 revenue + 6.8% to $1.4 billion
- 4Q revenue + 6.0% to $197.9 million
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- Achieved 2007 results through new products and services and reorganized
school team
- Healthy state new adoption calendar in 2008
- Expect market to grow 10% to 15% to $900 to $950 million
- We will be competing in virtually the entire market
- We are well positioned for the biggest opportunities in 2008
- California K-8 math
- Florida K-5 reading
- Texas K-5 math
- Success with elementary program in 2007 will benefit us in 2008
- Programs tend to include consumable materials and items that generate
residual orders in subsequent years
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- Compete in academic and non-academic curriculum areas
- Strong market shares contribute to our results each year
- Art and music
- Family and consumer science
- Technical and vocational education
- Health
- Business education
- Achieving steady growth with intervention programs
- Educators seek well-designed research-based materials for students
needing extra help to reach grade-level goals
- Florida and California adopted intervention programs for purchase in
2008
- Made lists in both states
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- Strong line-up of skills-based intervention programs includes:
- Number Worlds
- Language for Learning
- Reading Success
- Science Snapshots
- Treasures’ satellite programs are also generating incremental revenue
- Triumphs for intervention
- Treasure Chest for English-language learners
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- Open territory expected to grow 1% to 2%
- Factors affecting growth:
- Very likely pent up demand for new basal programs and intervention
materials
- Limited increases in federal funding and local/state budget levels
- We expect overall el-hi market to grow 4% to 5% in 2008
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- Gains in 2007 for custom and off-the-shelf revenue
- We expect more progress in 2008
- Public’s insistence on accountability has not abated
- Recently-enacted Federal education budget will keep all of No Child
Left Behind’s major programs intact, including state accountability
testing
- Acuity, our formative assessment program, is used at district level in
many states across the country
- Won 5-year, $80 million contract with New York City
- Statewide adoptions in Indiana and West Virginia in 4Q 2007
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- States and districts are expected to increase their expenditures on
formative and English-language learner testing
- Our LAS Links assessment program is very successful in the
English-language learner market
- We will continue to invest in technology to:
- Create innovative testing products
- Improve efficiencies in developing, delivering and scoring McGraw-Hill
assessments
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- Higher Education, Professional
and International Group
- 2007 revenue + 7.6% to $1.3 billion
- 4Q revenue + 3.4% to $353.0 million
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- Digital product revenue grew substantially faster than traditional
products in 2007; expect same in 2008
- Expect college and university market to grow 3% to 4% in 2008
- Think we can do better
- Digital products will be one of the keys
- Continuing to invest in ongoing digital transformation of content and
tools for:
- Course management
- Online instruction courses
- eBooks
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- Demand for digitally-delivered products most advanced in professional
world
- Our digital subscription revenue continues to grow faster than
conventional product sales as we expand our offerings in science,
medicine and engineering
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- 6% to 8% top-line growth in 2008
- Margins may decline 50 to 100 basis points due to accelerating
investments in technology
- Increased prepublication amortization
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- 2007 segment results
- Revenue +10.9% to $3.0 billion
- Operating profit +13.1% to $1.4 billion
- Includes a pre-tax gain of $17.3 million on mutual fund
business divestiture and an $18.8 million pre-tax restructuring charge
- Operating margin 44.6%, up from 43.8% last year
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- 4Q 2007 segment results
- Revenue - 7.2% to $736.7 million
- Operating profit - 22.8% to $263.4 million
- Including restructuring charge, or 17.2% excluding charge
- Operating margin 35.8% including restructuring charge, or 38.3%
excluding charge
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- Financial Services will:
- Manage costs very tightly
- Take advantage of opportunities in Financial Services’ diversified
portfolio
- Steps will help us hold operating margin decline in 2008 to between 125
and 225 basis points
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- Standard & Poor’s Investment Services
- Revenue grew by 15.6% in 4Q 2007 and by 16.3% in 2007 to $782 million
- Produced 26% of Financial Services’ 2007 revenue
- We expect another year of growth in Investment Services
- Growing family of liquid and investable indices
- Capital IQ, Compustat, ClariFI
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- Ratings business is diversified
- Geography
- Fee structure
- Product mix
- Ratings is not all about structured finance or U.S. new issuance
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- Start 2008 with $790 million of deferred revenue
- High expectations for Standard & Poor’s Investment Services, which
produces 25.7% of segment’s revenue
- International rating revenue now represents more than 40% of Credit
Market Services’ revenue
- Should continue to grow, offsetting a decline in domestic ratings in
2008
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- Non-traditional products and services expected to continue growing in
2008
- Now represent just over 25% of Credit Market Services’ revenue
- We expect a bigger contribution from non-transaction portion of Credit
Market Services
- Surveillance fees
- Annual contracts
- Subscriptions
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- Interest rates remain low
- Will help drive debt-financed strategic merger and acquisition deals,
as well as investments in infrastructure
- Companies will have more maturing debt to refinance
- Corporate investment-grade bond maturities in 2008 estimated to be over
$600 billion, up from $483 billion in 2007
- Financing conditions remain favorable overseas
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- Predominantly a transaction-based market
- New dollar volume issuance in the U.S. structured finance market
decreased by 22.2% in 2007
- We expect conditions to be challenging for most of 2008
- Residential mortgage issuance is expected to decline significantly due
to:
- Adverse conditions in housing market
- Tightening lending standards
- Shift to agency origination
- 2007 market
- U.S. RMBS dollar volume fell by 40.4% in 2007; expected to decline
significantly in 2008
- European RMBS issuance grew by 53.2%
- Total European structured market increased by 33.3%
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- U.S. CMBS market
- Tumbled 56% in 4Q 2007; finished up 6.8% for 2007
- Outlook uncertain as pension funds and insurance companies have stayed
on sidelines
- U.S. CDO market
- Finished up 1.4% in 2007
- Expect significant decline in 2008 U.S. CDO issuance
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- U.S. asset-backed securities market
- Better prospects
- Should see increases as credit card receivables replace home equity
loans and as issuers of auto loans tap this market
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- Strong demand for two key S&P products:
- RatingsDirect
- RatingsXpress
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- Headline risk will continue in 2008 on the regulatory and legal fronts
- Although lack of legal/factual merit is not deterring critics, we are
confident that S&P will be part of the solution emerging over the
coming months
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- S&P continues to work closely with regulators here and abroad
- Working on important initiatives that will be made public shortly
- Will underscore our efforts to strengthen ratings process and better
serve markets
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- Summary
- Diversity more important than ever in 2008
- Revenue will grow 2% to 4%
- Operating margin will decline no more than 125 to 225 basis points
- Slow growth in first half, followed by pickup in second half
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- 2007 segment results
- Revenue + 3.6% to $1.0 billion
- Operating profit + 27.2% to $63.5 million
- Pre-tax restructuring charge of
$6.7 million in 4Q 2007
- - Reflects 3Q 2006 $5.7 million pre-tax restructuring charge
- - Reflects 4Q 2006 $3.0 million pre-tax restructuring charge
- Operating margin 6.2%, up from 5.1% in 2006
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- 4Q 2007 segment results
- Revenue + 3.6% to $282.1 million
- Operating profit - 6.1% to $20.2 million
- Pre-tax restructuring charge of $6.7 million in 4Q 2007
- Operating profit increased 9.8% excluding charge
- Operating margin 7.2%, compared to 7.9% in 4Q 2006
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- Transformation in this segment is vitally important
- Progress was achieved in 2007
- Expect to do so again in 2008
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- 2007 revenue increased 6.2%
- 4Q revenue increased 6.3%
- BusinessWeek’s ad pages off 21.8% in 4Q and 18.2% for 2007
- Providing higher-value information was key to our performance
- News and pricing services delivered online to world energy market
- Improved market penetration of studies and proprietary services from
J.D. Power and Associates
- Growth in Asia-Pacific markets
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- Revenue declined in non-political year
- 2007 revenue declined 14.6%
- 4Q revenue in declined by 14.9%
- Expect to see big rebound in 2008, a political year
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- Holding rate base at 900,000
- Increasing ad rates by 4% over 2007
- One-year subscription price will remain at $59.97
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- Online syndicated studies from J.D. Power and Associates
- Growth of subscription-based products in the energy markets
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- Summary
- 6% to 8% top line growth in 2008
- Increased political advertising at Broadcasting
- More growth in online information products
- Improved operating margin
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- McGraw-Hill Education and Information & Media
- 2008 revenue growth of 6% to 8%
- Financial Services
- 2008 revenue growth of 2% to 4%
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- Financial Services
- Diversity and breadth of portfolio will be significant factor in 2008
performance
- Growth in S&P’s Investment Services and other ratings markets will
partially offset negative impact on segment’s operating margin from
fall-off in structured finance
- Segment’s operating margin may decline between 125 and 225 basis points
- Continued uncertainty in financial markets could impact this forecast
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- McGraw-Hill Education
- We expect operating profit to grow in low single-digit range because of
substantial increase in prepublication costs and investments in
technology
- Operating margin may decline 50 to 100 basis points
- Information & Media
- Anticipate improvement in operating margin
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- Expect earnings per share to increase 3% to 5%
- Net income will decline slightly, reflecting increased interest expense
for share buybacks
- 2008 guidance excludes:
- $0.08 restructuring charge in 4Q 2007
- $0.03 gain from divestiture of mutual fund data business in 2007
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- Summary
- We got off to a very fast start in 2007, so comparisons in the first
half of 2008 will be very challenging
- We expect a better performance in the second half and to finish 2008 on
an upswing
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- 4Q 2007
- 7 million shares repurchased for $322.7 million
- 2007
- 37 million shares repurchased for $2.2 billion
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- Since 1996, MHP returned $8.4 billion to shareholders through dividends
and share repurchases
- Includes approximately $2.5 billion returned in 2007
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- Capacity:
- 28 million shares left in the 2007 repurchase program authorized by
Board
- Last October, the Board signaled its approval for the repurchase of
remaining shares over time
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- Cash dividend has increased annually for 34 consecutive years
- Since 1974, the dividend has grown at a compound rate of 10.4%
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- 4Q 2007: 330.8 million shares
- 7 million share decrease vs. 3Q 2007
- 33.4 million share decrease vs. 4Q 2006
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- 4Q 2007: $801.4 million net debt position,
down from $878.8 million at end of 3Q
- On a gross basis, debt at year-end is approximately $1.2 billion,
offset by $396.1million in cash – primarily foreign holdings
- Compares to $353.5 million cash position at end of 2006
- Change is due to share repurchases
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- Issued $1.2 billion of unsecured senior notes in November 2007
- Spread evenly across 5-, 10-, and 30-year tranches
- Ended 2007 with no commercial paper outstanding
- Plan to enter the market in 2008 due to the seasonal nature of our
businesses
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- 2007: $40.6 million net interest expense
- 4Q 2007: $11.9 million compared to $70,000 in 4Q 2006
- 2008: Expected to increase to $80 to $100 million range
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- 4Q 2007: $46.0 million, a $5.2 million increase compared to a year ago
- Includes $1.9 million pre-tax restructuring charge
- 4Q 2006 included a $2.7 million pre-tax restructuring charge
- Increase primarily driven by:
- Increased incentive compensation
- Expenses related to operating efficiency programs and other corporate
business process improvements
- 2008: Expect low single-digit increase
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- Increase of approximately $45 million in pre-publication amortization
due to significant prepublication investments
- Increased investments for digital transformation
- El-hi: More technology required in products
- Testing: Must invest to keep products at the cutting edge, launch new
ones, and improve efficiency to take pressure off the margins
- Higher Education: Today’s students accustomed to laptops, desktops,
iPods and high bandwidth connectivity
- Global Medical Information: More than 50% of content is accessed
digitally
- We anticipate $18 million in costs for this segment in 2008 related to
migration to our new state-of-the-art data center
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- McGraw-Hill Education’s 2008 operating margin may decline 50 to 100
basis points
- No longer expect to achieve 20% operating margin by 2010
- Remain focused on various efforts to improve operating margin at
Education
- A $16.3 million pre-tax restructuring charge for severance in 4Q
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- 2007: Approximately $1.1 billion,
a 10.4%
year-over-year growth
- $790 million, or 73% of unearned
revenue, comes from S&P’s surveillance and fee structures and data
and information products
- Expect growth to moderate in 2008 given slower revenue growth forecast
- Revenue will be largely recognized over next twelve months
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- 2007: Effective tax rate 37.5% vs. 37.2% in 2006
- 2008: Expect rate to be approximately the same as 2007 on full-year
basis
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- 4Q 2007: $89.4 million
- 2007: $299 million
- Lower than initial projections due to timing and some operating
efficiencies
- 2008: Expect $300 to $310 million
- Reflects necessary investments to take advantage of strong adoption
opportunities
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- 4Q 2007: $83.2 million
- 2007: $229.6 million, compared to $126.6 million in 2006
- Driven by technology investments to digitize products and services
- Migration to new data center begins in April and will take
approximately one year to complete
- Total migration costs in $40 million range
- 2008: Expect CapEx of approximately $170 million
- Normal replacement expenditures
- Software and technology equipment for data center
- Continued investments for creation of new and enhanced products and
services
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- Amortization of prepublication costs
- 4Q 2007: $44.8 million
- 2007: $240.2 million
- 2008: Expect approximately $285 million,
a $45 million increase
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- Depreciation
- 4Q 2007: $28.7 million
- 2007: $112.6 million
- 2008: Expect approximately $125 million
- Completion of data center
- Purchase of new technology equipment for center
- Other increases in property and equipment
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- Amortization of intangibles
- 4Q 2007: $13.6 million
- 2007: $48.4 million
- 2008: Expect approximately $52
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- 2008: Anticipate range of $850-$900 million, about equal to 2007
- Guidance reflects:
- Lower net income
- Continued investments
- Prudent management of working capital
- Cash outflow for 2007 restructuring actions, which will be largely
offset by savings from these actions
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- Replay Options (Available from Jan 24-31)
- Telephone
- Domestic: 888-566-0568
- International: +1-203-369-3064
- No password required
- Internet
- Go to www.mcgraw-hill.com/investor_relations
- Click on the Earnings Announcement link under
Investor Presentation Webcasts
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