Business Outlook
Recreational Vehicles
Industry conditions in fiscal 2008 were adversely affected by concerns about interest rates, fuel prices, and diminished home equity values, as evidenced by soft market conditions. As a result of these continuing concerns and a significant tightening of credit for RV buyers, we anticipate continued weakness in all segments for fiscal year 2009. This weakness was initially caused by turmoil in the mortgage industry that then spread to the broader financial markets and economy. More recently the volatility of fuel prices has also contributed to consumers' reluctance to purchase RVs. Motor home retail sales for the industry were down 6.0% for calendar 2007, with most of the weakness in the higher-end Class A and mid- and luxury-priced Class C segments. Travel trailer retail sales for calendar year 2007 were up 2.1%; however, dealers have been reducing their inventories in the face of economic uncertainty, and industry wholesale shipments were down 10.5% for the same period. For the first calendar quarter of 2008, the motor home market was down 24.8% and the travel trailer market dropped by 19.0% compared to the same period of the prior year.
Our overall market position in motor homes showed slight improvement in calendar 2007 despite being impacted by lower industry demand in product segments that have traditionally been areas of relative strength for us. We expect to see additional market share growth from lower-priced and fuel-efficient Class C products, entry-level Class A gas products, and several diesel brands.
Following restructuring activities of the travel trailer business between March and July 2007, our retail and wholesale market shares declined in calendar 2007. Dealers continued to sell older model-year units still in stock before replacing them with newer products. Also we experienced reduced sales in the lower-margin, entry-level segment, which we no longer produce in the Eastern U.S. We are becoming more competitive in markets on which we have placed emphasis since our recent adjustments to manufacturing capacity. Travel trailer manufacturing efficiencies have increased, yet further improvement over current levels of cost and efficiency of our manufacturing operations will be necessary in order to achieve profitability in this environment. Our travel trailer market share for the first calendar quarter was 4.3%, down from 6.3% in the prior year. We expect our market share to remain at similar levels until market conditions improve and dealers have sold their inventories of older model-year products.
A longer-term positive outlook for the recreational vehicle industry is supported by favorable demographics, as baby boomers reach the age brackets that historically have accounted for the bulk of retail RV sales, and an increase in interest in the RV lifestyle among both older and younger segments of the population than have traditionally participated.
Housing
We expect longer-term demand for affordable housing to grow as a result of overall population growth; baby boomers reaching retirement age; the development of new products and markets such as modular housing; and the continued relative high cost of site-built homes, notwithstanding the recent pricing pressure in certain regions due to the retrenchment in the mortgage industry.
Many of the factors that have historically affected manufactured housing volumes have been in flux recently. Positive trends include a normalized level of manufactured home repossessions, improved performance of manufactured housing loan portfolios, tightening of credit for site-built homes, and higher rents and lower vacancies in apartments. On the other hand, the overall slowing of the housing market and an increase in conventional housing inventories will negatively impact manufactured housing conditions in the near term.
Manufactured housing industry shipments were down 18.4% in calendar 2007. Markets in California, Arizona, and Florida, traditionally among our strongest, are the states most impacted by the sudden tightening in the conventional mortgage markets and are down sharply. More recently we have seen softness in other parts of the country, including the Northeast. The outlook in most areas continues to be uncertain, but overall we anticipate that manufactured housing industry conditions are unlikely to improve before late calendar 2008, and then only modestly.
We continue to monitor our capacity given current market conditions, have been successful in reducing fixed costs and, in some cases, have consolidated management teams at adjacent plants. These efforts have enabled us to maintain a presence in markets that we believe have potential that we would otherwise be forced to abandon. In addition, we continue to focus on adding new distribution points.
We are also pursuing other opportunities to supplement our business, such as sales of modular homes to builder/developers and military projects. Modular sales in the Gulf Region have been slow to emerge and the longer sales cycle for these types of projects has significantly tempered our progress in this area. Development of our modular business, however, has met with some success in the area of military housing. Earlier in fiscal 2008 we completed a large contract to provide military housing and subsequently won two additional contracts worth approximately $40 million, production of which commenced in late fiscal 2008.
Summary
Fiscal 2009 will be challenging as market conditions in all segments have weakened. RV dealers seem likely to conservatively manage their inventories in the coming months, especially for motor homes. Such conservatism has recently contributed to more discounting by manufacturers and a lowering of production volumes, short work weeks and layoffs. These factors in combination with inflationary pressure on commodity and materials prices will negatively impact near-term margins. Operating expenses are expected to show continued year-over-year declines, although at a reduced rate compared with recent quarters.
