|
Interest Rate Risk AmSouth
uses a number of measures to monitor and manage interest rate risk.
An earnings simulation model is the primary tool used to assess the
direction and magnitude of the changes in NII caused by changes in interest
rates. Key assumptions in the model include prepayment speeds on mortgage-related
assets; cash flows and maturities of derivatives and other financial
instruments held for purposes other than trading; changes in market
conditions, loan volumes and pricing; deposit sensitivity; customer
preferences; and managements financial and capital plans. These
assumptions are inherently uncertain and, as a result, the model cannot
precisely estimate NII or precisely predict the impact of higher or
lower interest rates on NII, but it can indicate the likely direction
of change. Actual results will differ from simulated results due to
timing, magnitude and frequency of interest rate changes and changes
in market conditions and managements strategies, among other factors.
Based on the results of the simulation model as of December 31, 2000,
NII would decrease $2.0 million or 0.10 percent if interest rates gradually
increased from then-current rates by 100 basis points over a 12-month
period and would be unchanged if interest rates gradually decreased
under the same scenario. This level of interest rate risk is well within
the Companys policy guidelines. As of December 31, 1999, the simulation
model indicated that NII would decrease $38.4 million or 2.3 percent
and increase $25.3 million or 1.5 percent if interest rates gradually
increased or decreased, respectively, from their current rates by 100
basis points over a 12-month period. For June 1999 through May 2000,
interest rates rose 175 basis points.
The significant reduction in AmSouths interest sensitivity compared
to 1999 is primarily the result of the financial restructuring initiated
in the third quarter of 2000. As part of the financial restructuring,
AmSouth sold $4.0 billion of low-yielding fixed-rate investment securities
and securitized and sold approximately $1.0 billion of low-yielding
fixed-rate automobile loans. These fixed-rate assets were primarily
funded by floating-rate overnight and other short-term borrowings. This
action has significantly reduced the impact of interest rate fluctuations
on NII.
|
In connection with the financial restructuring, an independent review
was done of the interest rate risk management process. While AmSouths
existing simulation model was found to be operating appropriately, management
began expanding the interest rate sensitivity model to include different
and more extreme interest rate scenarios such as those experienced in
1999 and 2000. In addition, variations in other key assumptions, such
as loan and deposit volume and pricing, are also being stress-tested
in net interest income risk modeling.
AmSouth uses various off-balance sheet financial instruments to assist
in managing interest rate risk. AmSouth had interest rate swaps as of
December 31, 2000, in the notional amount of $2.7 billion. Of these
swaps, $1.0 billion of notional value was used to hedge the cash flow
of variable-rate securities and commercial loans. The remaining $1.7
billion of notional value of swaps was used to hedge the fair value
of fixed-rate consumer certificates of deposit and corporate and bank
debt. See Note 1 and Note 13 to the Consolidated Financial Statements
for further discussion of off-balance-sheet derivatives.
Table 12 summarizes the activity, by notional amount, of off-balance
sheet financial instruments utilized in the asset and liability management
process at AmSouth for the years 2000, 1999 and 1998.
Table 13 summarizes the expected maturities on all of AmSouths
off-balance sheet positions at December 31, 2000, and interest rates
exchanged on swaps. Both the timing of the maturities and the variable
interest payments and receipts vary as certain interest rates change.
The maturities and interest rates exchanged are calculated assuming
that interest rates remain unchanged from average December 2000 rates.
The information presented could change as future interest rates increase
or decrease.
|