Duke Energy


> Introduction
> Results of Operations
> Liquidity and Capital Resources
> Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures about Market Risk
> Current Issues


QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE DISCLOSURES ABOUT MARKET RISK

-RISK POLICIES
Duke Energy is exposed to market risks associated with interest rates, commodity prices, equity prices and foreign exchange rates. Comprehensive risk management policies have been established by the Corporate Risk Management Committee (CRMC) to monitor and control these market risks. The CRMC is chaired by the Chief Financial Officer and is comprised of senior executives. The CRMC has responsibility for oversight of interest rate risk, foreign currency risk, credit risk and energy risk management, including approval of energy financial exposure limits.

-INTEREST RATE RISK
Duke Energy is exposed to risk resulting from changes in interest rates as a result of its issuance of variable-rate debt, fixed-rate debt and trust preferred securities, commercial paper and auction market preferred stock, as well as interest rate swaps and interest rate lock agreements. Duke Energy manages its interest rate exposure by limiting its variable-rate and fixed-rate exposures to certain percentages of total capitalization, as set by policy, and by monitoring the effects of market changes in interest rates. Duke Energy may also enter into financial derivative instruments including, but not limited to, swaps, options and treasury rate agreements to manage and mitigate interest rate risk exposure. See Notes 1, 7, 10, 12 and 13 to the Consolidated Financial Statements for additional information.

Based on a sensitivity analysis as of December 31, 1999, it was estimated that if market interest rates average 1% higher (lower) in 2000 than in 1999, earnings before income taxes would decrease (increase) by approximately $24 million. Comparatively, based on a sensitivity analysis as of December 31, 1998, had interest rates averaged 1% higher (lower) in 1999 than in 1998, it was estimated that earnings before income taxes would have decreased (increased) by approximately $23 million. These amounts were determined by considering the impact of the hypothetical interest rates on the variable-rate securities outstanding as of December 31, 1999 and 1998. In the event of a significant change in interest rates, management would likely take actions to manage its exposure to the change. However, due to the uncertainty of the specific actions that would be taken and their possible effects, the sensitivity analysis assumes no changes in Duke Energy's financial structure.

-COMMODITY PRICE RISK
Duke Energy, substantially through its subsidiaries, is exposed to the impact of market fluctuations in the price of natural gas, electricity and natural gas liquid products marketed and purchased. Duke Energy employs established policies and procedures to manage its risks associated with these market fluctuations using various commodity derivatives, including forward contracts, futures, swaps and options. Market risks associated with commodity derivatives held for purposes other than trading were not material at December 31, 1999 and 1998. See Notes 1 and 7 to the Consolidated Financial Statements for additional information.

The risk in the commodity trading portfolio is measured on a daily basis utilizing a Value-at-Risk model to determine the maximum potential one-day favorable or unfavorable Daily Earnings at Risk (DER). The DER is monitored daily in comparison to established thresholds. Other measures are also utilized to monitor the risk in the commodity trading portfolio on a monthly and annual basis.

The DER computations are based on a historical simulation, which utilizes price movements over a specified period to simulate forward price curves in the energy markets to estimate the favorable or unfavorable impact of one-day's price movement on the existing portfolio. The historical simulation emphasizes the most recent market activity, which is considered the most relevant predictor of immediate future market movements for natural gas, electricity and petroleum products. The DER computations utilize several key assumptions, including a 95% confidence level for the resultant price movement and the holding period specified for the calculation. Duke Energy's DER calculation includes commodity derivative instruments held for trading purposes. The estimated potential one-day favorable or unfavorable impact on earnings before income taxes related to commodity derivatives held for trading purposes at December 31, 1999 and 1998 was approximately $10 million. The average estimated potential one-day favorable or unfavorable impact on earnings before income taxes related to commodity derivatives held for trading purposes was approximately $11 million and $5 million during 1999 and 1998, respectively. The increase in average 1999 amounts compared with 1998 is a result of an increase in the authorized energy financial exposure limit in 1998, which was approved by the CRMC. Changes in markets inconsistent with historical trends could cause actual results to exceed predicted limits.

Subsidiaries of Duke Energy are also exposed to market fluctuations in the prices of NGLs related to their ongoing gathering and processing operating activities. Duke Energy closely monitors the risks associated with NGL price changes on its future operations, and where appropriate, uses crude oil and natural gas commodity instruments to hedge NGL prices. Based on a sensitivity analysis as of December 31, 1999, it was estimated that if NGL prices average one cent per gallon less in 2000, earnings before income taxes would decrease by approximately $6 million, after considering the effect of Duke Energy's commodity hedge positions. Comparatively, based on sensitivity analysis as of December 31, 1998, if NGL prices would have averaged one cent per gallon less in 1999, it was estimated that earnings before income taxes would have decreased by approximately $8 million.

-EQUITY PRICE RISK
Duke Energy maintains trust funds, as required by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, to fund certain costs of nuclear decommissioning. (See Note 11 to the Consolidated Financial Statements.) As of December 31, 1999 and 1998, these funds were invested primarily in domestic and international equity securities, fixed-rate, fixed-income securities and cash and cash equivalents. Management believes that its exposure to fluctuations in equity prices or interest rates will not materially affect consolidated results of operations. See further discussion in the Current Issues, Nuclear Decommissioning Costs section of Management's Discussion and Analysis.

-FOREIGN OPERATIONS RISK
Duke Energy is exposed to foreign currency risk, sovereign risk and other foreign operations risk that arise from investments in international affiliates and businesses owned and operated in foreign countries. To mitigate risks associated with foreign currency fluctuations, when possible, contracts are denominated in or indexed to the U. S. dollar or may be hedged through debt denominated in the foreign currency. Duke Energy also uses foreign currency derivatives, where possible, to manage its risk related to foreign currency fluctuations. To monitor its currency exchange rate risks, Duke Energy uses sensitivity analysis, which measures the impact of a devaluation of the foreign currencies to which it has exposure.

At December 31, 1999, Duke Energy's primary foreign currency exchange rate exposures were the Brazilian real, the Australian dollar and the Canadian dollar. Exposures to other foreign currencies were not material. Based on the sensitivity analysis at December 31, 1999, a 10% devaluation in the currency exchange rates in Brazil would reduce Duke Energy's financial position by $65 million and would not significantly affect Duke Energy's consolidated results of operations or cash flows over the next twelve months. Based on the sensitivity analysis at December 31, 1999, a 10% devaluation in other foreign currencies were insignificant to Duke Energy's consolidated results of operations, financial position or cash flows. Exposures to foreign currency risks were not material to consolidated results of operations, financial position or cash flows during 1998.