2010 Third-Quarter Letter to Shareholders
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Cincinnati Financial Reports Third-Quarter 2010 Results

Cincinnati, October 27, 2010 - Cincinnati Financial Corporation (Nasdaq: CINF) today reported:

  $156 million, or 95 cents per share, of net income for the third quarter of 2010 compared with a net income of $171 million, or $1.05 per share, in the third quarter of 2009.
 
  $56 million, or 34 cents per share, of operating income* compared with operating income of $96 million, or 59 cents per share.
 
  Net income and operating income for the third quarter of 2010 declined due to property casualty insurance results that were lower by $42 million after taxes. For the first nine months of 2010, the contribution from property casualty insurance rose $25 million over the year-ago period. The contribution to net income from investments, including net realized investment gains, rose $26 million for the quarter and $42 million for the nine-month period.
 
  $30.80 book value per share at September 30, 2010, up approximately 6 percent from June 30, 2010, and 5 percent from December 31, 2009.
 
  9.4 percent value creation ratio for the first nine months of 2010, compared with 15.0 percent for the same period of 2009.
     
Financial Highlights
 
(Dollars in millions except share data)   Three months ended September 30,     Nine months ended September 30,  
    2010     2009     Change %     2010     2009     Change %  
 
Revenue Highlights
                                               
Earned premiums
  $ 784     $ 766       2     $ 2,299     $ 2,301       0  
Investment income, pre-tax
    128       127       1       388       370       5  
Total revenues
    1,071       1,007       6       2,836       2,770       2  
Income Statement Data
                                               
Net income
  $ 156     $ 171       (9)   $ 251     $ 187       34  
Net realized investment gains and losses
    100       75       33       90       58       55  
 
                                       
Operating income*
  $ 56     $ 96       (42)   $ 161     $ 129       25  
 
                                       
Per Share Data (diluted)
                                               
Net income
  $ 0.95     $ 1.05       (10)   $ 1.53     $ 1.15       33  
Net realized investment gains and losses
    0.61       0.46       33       0.55       0.36       53  
 
                                       
Operating income*
  $ 0.34     $ 0.59       (42)   $ 0.98     $ 0.79       24  
 
                                       
 
                                               
Book value
                          $ 30.80     $ 28.44       8  
Cash dividend declared
  $ 0.40       0.395       1     $ 1.19       1.175       1  
Diluted weighted average shares outstanding
    163,175,682       162,901,396       0       163,251,628       162,794,767       0  
 

Insurance Operations Third-quarter Highlights
  103.9 percent third-quarter 2010 property casualty combined ratio, up 8.8 percentage points from one year ago primarily due to a lower benefit from reserve development on prior accident years and relatively higher weather-related catastrophe losses.
 
  1 percent increase in property casualty net written premiums, including personal lines segment growth of 9 percent.
 
  $109 million property casualty new business written by agencies, up $2 million from third-quarter 2009. $11 million was contributed during the quarter by all agencies appointed since the beginning of 2009.
 
  4 cents per share contribution from life insurance to third-quarter operating income, matching the year ago contribution.
Investment and Balance Sheet Highlights
  Investment income, after income tax effects, grew 1 percent in the third quarter of 2010. On a nine-month basis, it grew 4 percent, driven by pre-tax interest income growth of 7 percent.
 
  5 percent nine-month increase in fair value of invested assets plus cash at September 30, 2010, including bond portfolio growth of 8 percent.
 
  Parent company cash and marketable securities of $1.079 billion at September 30, 2010, up 8 percent from year-end.
 
*  
The Definitions of Non-GAAP Information and Reconciliation to Comparable GAAP Measures appears on our website, www.cinfin.com/investors, defines and reconciles measures presented in this release that are not based on Generally Accepted Accounting Principles.
 
**  
Forward-looking statements and related assumptions are subject to the risks outlined in the company’s
safe harbor statement.
Attaining Milestones: Financial Strength
Kenneth W. Stecher, president and chief executive officer, commented, "The balance sheet strength of Cincinnati Financial Corporation grew as of September 30, 2010, with assets topping $15 billion and shareholders' equity reaching $5 billion.

"Book value per share rose 6 percent during the third quarter and 5 percent over the nine-month period. The increase for both periods was primarily due to increased fair value of our investment portfolio, with our common stock portfolio growing more than the bond portfolio during the third quarter. Investment income rose compared with the year-ago quarter, but the trend for the sequential quarter declined as we replaced matured or called bonds with ones that generally pay lower interest.

" We sold our Verisk holding during the third quarter and plan to reinvest the proceeds - more than $80 million of after-tax realized gains - in dividend-paying equities. Realized investment gains on equity sales more than offset a negative income contribution from property casualty insurance operations, with market and economic pressures continuing to affect demand and pricing in our commercial business segment.

" We expect initiatives already in progress to drive incremental improvement of our insurance underwriting results. In the interim, our exceptional level of financial strength lets us honor our strong relationships with shareholders, independent agent representatives and policyholders by maintaining consistency and a long-term approach. This month, shareholders received a regular cash dividend that reflected 50 consecutive years of annual increases, a record matched by only a handful of public companies."
Meeting Challenges: Insurance Operations Growth and Profitability
Stecher noted, "With the support of our agents, we are declining business we consider underpriced and, at the same time, enjoying growth in states and lines of business that we have targeted for premium growth. Our total new business premiums rose $2 million over last year's third quarter, thanks to increases from states where we began marketing since 2008, as well as from personal lines. Overall written premiums, which include renewing policies at our high policy retention rate, also rose slightly for the quarter. Written premium growth in personal lines and excess and surplus lines more than offset the 3 percent decline in our larger commercial segment.

"Our overall property casualty combined ratio was unsatisfactory at 103.9 percent for the quarter and 104.7 percent for the nine months. Profitability of commericial casualty, our largest line of business and representing nearly one-third of our commercial segment, continued strong.

"Our challenge remains to improve performance of our homeowner personal line of business and our workers' compensation commercial line, which have been offsetting otherwise profitable overall underwriting results. One of the ways we evaluate the effects of our underwriting initiatives is to look at the loss and loss expenses ratio before catastrophe losses and prior accident year reserve development. For the nine months, that measure for commercial lines came within 1 percentage point of full-year 2009 although pricing trends worsened. The same measure for personal lines, while still below a break-even point, improved almost 3 percentage points.

"We believe pricing precision accounts for much of the improvement, and we will repair our underperforming lines by targeting further precision. We first used predictive analytics tools for this purpose in homeowners, then workers' compensation and more recently for the personal auto line of business, and we are developing them for our other major lines of commercial business.

"In addition, we are addressing underwriting performance through several other initiatives. We are taking selective rate increases for homeowners, speeding up our response to workers' compensation claims, providing more specialized staff support for that line and expanding our proactive loss control services. All of these actions, together with our reserve practices that consistently produce favorable development over time, put us on track to resume historical underwriting results well above industry averages.

"In conclusion, we remain confident in our ability to deliver better results and shareholder value over the long term. Our time-tested business model and financial strength is the foundation. Strategic initiatives to improve operating performance are beginning to bear fruit and also place us in a better position to grow earnings at a faster pace when market conditions are more favorable."
Consolidated Property Casualty Insurance Operations
                                                 
 
(Dollars in millions)   Three months ended September 30,     Nine months ended September 30,  
    2010     2009     Change %     2010     2009     Change %  
 
Agency renewal written premiums
  $ 677     $ 669       1     $ 2,044     $ 2,030       1  
Agency new business written premiums
    109       107       2       307       311       (1)  
Other written premiums
    (50)       (46)       (9)       (110)       (110)       0  
 
                                       
Net written premiums
    736       730       1       2,241       2,231       0  
Unearned premium change
    7       3       133       (62)       (33)       (88)  
 
                                       
Earned premiums
    743       733       1       2,179       2,198       (1)  
 
                                               
Loss and loss expenses
    532       459       16       1,560       1,623       (4)  
Underwriting expenses
    240       238       1       722       716       1  
 
                                       
Underwriting (loss) profit
  $ (29)     $ 36       nm     $ (103)     $ (141)       27  
 
                                       
                                                 
                                                 
Ratios as a percent of earned premiums:                   Pt. Change                     Pt. Change  
Current accident year before catastrophe losses
    75.5%       73.9%       1.6       72.3%       70.6%       1.7  
Current accident year catastrophe losses
    4.3       1.2       3.1       7.2       8.4       (1.2)  
Prior accident years before catastrophe losses
    (7.7)       (12.1)       4.4       (7.2)       (4.9)       (2.3)  
Prior accident years catastrophe losses
    (0.5)       (0.3)       (0.2)       (0.7)       (0.3)       (0.4)  
 
                                   
Total loss and loss expenses
    71.6       62.7       8.9       71.6       73.8       (2.2)  
Underwriting expenses
    32.3       32.4       (0.1)       33.1       32.6       0.5  
 
                                   
Combined ratio
    103.9%       95.1%       8.8       104.7%       106.4%       (1.7)  
 
                                   
 
                                               
Contribution from catastrophe losses and prior years reserve development
    (3.9)       (11.2)       7.3       (0.7)       3.2       (3.9)  
 
                                   
Combined ratio before catastrophe losses and prior years reserve development
    107.8%       106.3%       1.5       105.4%       103.2%       2.2  
 
                                   
 
  $6 million or 1 percent increase in total third-quarter 2010 property casualty net written premiums, reflecting various targeted growth initiatives that produced increases of $18 million in personal lines and $5 million in excess and surplus lines.
 
  $2 million increase in new business written by agencies in the third quarter of 2010 compared with the third quarter of 2009, including a decrease of $2 million for commercial lines that was offset by an increase of $4 million for personal lines.
 
  1,227 agency relationships with 1,524 reporting locations marketing standard market property casualty insurance products at September 30, 2010, compared with 1,180 agency relationships with 1,463 reporting locations at year-end 2009. Seventy-one new agency appointments were made during the first nine months of 2010, exceeding the initial full-year target of 65. The company now markets in 38 states including Connecticut, where its first agency appointment was announced in October.
 
  8.8 percentage-point rise in the third-quarter combined ratio, including 2.9 points for higher catastrophe losses from weather events.
     
  Underwriting results benefitted from favorable prior accident year reserve development of $61 million for the third quarter of 2010, a lower level of benefit compared with $91 million for the same period of 2009, which accounted for 4.2 percentage points of the increase in the combined ratio.
     
  1.7 percentage point improvement in the nine-month combined ratio was driven by a higher level of benefit from favorable prior accident year reserve development and lower weather-related catastrophe losses.
     
The following table shows incurred catastrophe losses for 2010 and 2009.
 
(In millions, net of reinsurance)   Three months ended September 30,   Nine months ended September 30,
          Commercial     Personal             Commercial    
Personal
         
Dates   Cause of loss   Region lines     lines     Total     lines     lines     Total  
 
2010
                                                       
First quarter catastrophes 
        $ (1)     $ (1)     $ (2)     $ 8     $ 2     $ 10  
Second quarter catastrophes 
                1       1       51       42       93  
Jun. 30 - Jul. 1
  Hail, wind   West     9       3       12       12       4       16  
Jul. 20-23
  Flood, hail, tornado, wind   Midwest     5       4       9       5       4       9  
All other 2010 catastrophes
            6       5       11       19       11       30  
Development on 2009 and prior catastrophes
            (2)       (1)       (3)       (12)       (4)       (16)  
 
                                           
Calendar year incurred total
      $ 17     $ 11     $ 28     $ 83     $ 59     $ 142  
 
                                           
 
                                                       
2009
                                                       
First quarter catastrophes 
        $ (1)     $ 1     $     $ 20     $ 47     $ 67  
Second quarter catastrophes 
          (10)       1       (9)       42       45       87  
Sep. 18-22
  Flood, hail, wind   South     1       4       5       1       4       5  
All other 2009 catastrophes
            6       6       12       11       13       24  
Development on 2008 and prior catastrophes
            (3)       1       (2)       (10)       4       (6)  
 
                                           
Calendar year incurred total
      $ (7)     $ 13     $ 6     $ 64     $ 113     $ 177  
 
                                           
 
Insurance Operations Highlights

Commercial Lines Insurance Operations
                                                 
 
(Dollars in millions)   Three months ended September 30,     Nine months ended September 30,  
    2010     2009     Change %     2010     2009     Change %  
 
Agency renewal written premiums
  $ 479     $ 489       (2)     $ 1,054     $ 1,535       (2)  
Agency new business written premiums
    74       76       (3)       213       231       (8)  
Other written premiums
    (42)       (37)       (14)       (86)       (88)       2  
 
                                       
Net written premiums
    511       528       (3)       1,631       1,678       (3)  
Unearned premium change
    36       27       33       (23)       (11)       (109)  
 
                                       
Earned premiums
    547       555       (1)       1,608       1,667       (4)  
                                             
Loss and loss expenses
    387       329       18       1,118       1,159       (4)
Underwriting expenses
    179       184       (3)       529       539       (2)
 
                                       
Underwriting (loss) profit
  $ (19)     $ 42     nm     $ (39)     $ (31)       (26)
                                         
                                             
Ratios as a percent of earned premiums:                   Pt. Change                     Pt. Change  
Current accident year before catastrophe losses
    76.6%       73.3%       3.3       73.1%       70.4%       2.7  
Current accident year catastrophe losses
    3.5       (0.6)       4.1       5.9       4.4       1.5  
Prior accident years before catastrophe losses
    (9.1)       (12.8)       3.7       (8.8)       (4.6)       (4.2)  
Prior accident years catastrophe losses
    (0.3)       (0.6)       0.3       (0.7)       (0.6)       (0.1)  
 
                                   
Total loss and loss expenses
    70.7       59.3       11.4       69.5       69.6       (0.1)  
Underwriting expenses
    32.7       33.1       (0.4)       32.9       32.3       0.6  
 
                                   
Combined ratio
    103.4%       92.4%       11.0       102.4%       101.9%       0.5  
 
                                   
Contribution from catastrophe losses and prior years reserve development
    (5.9)       (14.0)       8.1       (3.6)       (0.8)       (2.8)  
 
                                   
Combined ratio before catastrophe losses and prior years reserve development
    109.3%       106.4%       2.9       106.0%       102.7%       3.3  
 
                                   
                                                 
  $17 million or 3 percent decrease in third-quarter 2010 commercial lines net written premiums. The third-quarter and nine-month periods trended similarly and were largely driven by lower renewal written premiums reflecting stable policy retention and modest pricing declines.
 
  $2 million and $18 million declines in third quarter and first nine months of 2010 new business written premiums compared with the same periods of 2009, due to continued strong competition and our intention to avoid writing business we considered underpriced. $13 million increase for three newest states of operation during the nine-month period while other states decreased by $31 million or 14 percent.
 
  11.0 percentage-point third-quarter combined ratio increase due primarily to higher weather-related losses and a lower level of benefit from favorable prior accident year reserve development.
     
  0.5 percentage point rise in the nine-month combined ratio reflected fairly stable current accident year results and higher weather-related catastrophe losses offset by a higher level of benefit from favorable prior accident year reserve development.
 
  54.4 percent nine-month loss and loss expense ratio for the largest line of business in the segment, commercial casualty, in line with full-year 2009 at 54.6 percent.
 
  73.1 percent nine-month ratio for current accident year losses and loss expenses before catastrophes, increased slightly from 72.5 percent full-year 2009.
Personal Lines Insurance Operations
                                                 
 
(Dollars in millions)   Three months ended September 30,     Nine months ended September 30,  
    2010     2009     Change %     2010     2009     Change %  
 
Agency renewal written premiums
  $ 189     $ 177       7     $ 519     $ 490       6  
Agency new business written premiums
    25       21       19       67       55       22  
Other written premiums
    (6)       (8)       25       (19)       (21)       10  
 
                                       
Net written premiums
    208       190       9       567       524       8  
Unearned premium change
    (26)       (20)       (30)       (32)       (11)       (191)  
 
                                       
Earned premiums
    182       170       7       535       513       4  
                                                 
Loss and loss expenses
    132       125       6       407       450       (10)  
Underwriting expenses
    56       49       14       180       159       13  
 
                                       
Underwriting loss
  $ (6)     $ (4)       (50)     $ (52)     $ (96)       46  
                                         
                                                 
Ratios as a percent of earned premiums:                   Pt. Change                     Pt. Change  
Current accident year before catastrophe losses
    70.0%       76.1%       (6.1)       68.1%       71.3%       (3.2)  
Current accident year catastrophe losses
    6.9       7.3       (0.4)       11.6       21.2       (9.6)  
Prior accident years before catastrophe losses
    (3.7)       (10.7)       7.0       (3.1)       (5.8)       2.7  
Prior accident years catastrophe losses
    (0.9)       0.6       (1.5)       (0.6)       0.8       (1.4)  
 
                                   
Total loss and loss expenses
    72.3       73.3       (1.0)       76.0       87.5       (11.5)  
Underwriting expenses
    31.1       29.0       2.1       33.8       31.2       2.6  
 
                                   
Combined ratio
    103.4%       102.3%       1.1       109.8%       118.7%       (8.9)  
 
                                   
Contribution from catastrophe losses and prior years reserve development
    2.3       (2.8)       5.1       7.9       16.2       (8.3)  
 
                                   
Combined ratio before catastrophe losses and prior years reserve development
    101.1%       105.1%       (4.0)       101.9%       102.5%       (0.6)  
 
                                   
                                                 
  $18 million or 9 percent increase in third-quarter 2010 personal lines net written premiums, reflecting improved pricing and strong new business growth. The third-quarter and nine-month periods trended similarly and were largely driven by higher renewal and new business written premiums that reflected improved pricing.
 
  1.1 percentage-point increase in the third-quarter combined ratio as higher technology related costs in underwriting expenses offset lower total loss and loss expenses.
 
  8.9 percentage-point nine-month combined ratio improvement driven by lower losses, primarily from weather-related catastrophes, but also other losses that included the effect of improved pricing.
     
  68.1 percent nine-month ratio for current accident year losses and loss expenses before catastrophes, improved from 70.9 percent full-year 2009 primarily due to better pricing and a 2.1 percentage point favorable effect from lower new losses greater than $250,000.
Life Insurance Operations
                                                 
 
(In millions)   Three months ended September 30,     Nine months ended September 30,  
    2010     2009     Change %     2010     2009     Change %  
 
Term life insurance
  $ 25     $ 22       14     $ 72     $ 63       14  
Universal life insurance
    10       5       100       29       20       45  
Other life insurance, annuity, and disability income products
    6       6       0       19       20       (5)  
 
                                       
Earned premiums
    41       33       24       120       103       17  
Investment income, net of expenses
    32       31       3       97       90       8  
Other income
    -       -       nm       1       1       0  
 
                                       
Total revenues, excluding realized investment gains and losses
    73       64       14       218       194       12  
 
                                       
Contract holders benefits
    44       40       10       129       118       9  
Underwriting expenses
    19       9       111       51       34       50  
 
                                       
Total benefits and expenses
    63       49       29       180       152       18  
 
                                       
Net income before income tax and realized investment gains and losses
    10       15       (33)       38       42       (10)  
Income tax
    3       8       (63)       13       15       (13)  
 
                                       
Net income before realized investment gains and losses
  $ 7     $ 7       0     $ 25     $ 27       (7)  
 
                                       
 
  $8 million or 24 percent growth in third-quarter 2010 earned premiums and 17 percent nine-month growth, reflecting marketing advantages of competitive products, personal service and policies backed by financial strength. Five percent rise in face amount of life policies in force to $73.134 billion at September 30, 2010, from $69.815 billion at year-end 2009.
 
  $37 million in third-quarter 2010 fixed annuity deposits received compared with $70 million in third-quarter 2009 and $181 million in full-year 2009. Cincinnati Life does not offer variable or indexed products.
 
  Third-quarter 2010 profit was in line with 2009. Profit for the nine-month period declined primarily due to the unlocking of actuarial assumptions for our universal life contracts, which increased underwriting expenses. Nine-month expenses were also up from higher commissions and expenses due to growth in term life insurance and fixed annuities.
 
  GAAP shareholders' equity for The Cincinnati Life Insurance Company increased during the third quarter of 2010 by $46 million, or 6 percent, to $776 million. Net after-tax unrealized gains were up $38 million.
Investment and Balance Sheet Highlights
Investment Operations
                                                 
 
(In millions)   Three months ended September 30,     Nine months ended September 30,  
    2010     2009     Change %     2010     2009     Change %  
 
Total investment income, net of expenses, pre-tax
  $ 128     $ 127       1     $ 388     $ 370       5  
 
                                       
Investment interest credited to contract holders
    (21)       (17)       (24)       (60)       (50)       (20)  
 
                                       
Realized investment gains and losses summary:
                                               
Realized investment gains and losses, net
    151       106       42       170       180       (6)  
Change in fair value of securities with embedded derivatives
    5       15       (67)       6       23       (74)  
Other-than-temporary impairment charges
    (1)       (11)       91       (36)       (113)       68  
 
                                       
Total realized investment gains and losses, net
    155       110       41       140       90       56  
 
                                       
Investment operations income
  $ 262     $ 220       19     $ 468     $ 410     14  
 
                                       
                                                 
 
(In millions)   Three months ended September 30,     Nine months ended September 30,  
    2010     2009     Change %     2010     2009     Change %  
 
Investment income:
                                               
Interest
  $ 104     $ 104       0     $ 318     $ 296       7  
Dividends
    25       24       4       73       74       (1)  
Other
    1       1       0       3       6       (50)  
Investment expenses
    (2)       (2)       0       (6)       (6)       0  
 
                                       
Total investment income, net of expenses, pre-tax
    128       127       1       388       370       5  
Income taxes
    (31)       (31)       0       (95)       (87)       (9)  
 
                                       
Total investment income, net of expenses, after-tax
  $ 97     $ 96       1     $ 293     $ 283     4  
 
                                       
                                               
Effective tax rate
    24.3%       24.0%               24.4%       23.5%          
                                               
Average yield pre-tax
    4.4%       4.9%               4.5%       4.7%          
Average yield after-tax
    3.4%       3.7%               3.4%       3.6%          
                                               
 
  1 percent third-quarter 2010 and 5 percent nine-month growth in pre-tax investment income. A steeper year-over-year decline in bond yields slowed the current quarter rate of growth relative to the nine-month period.
 
  $283 million or 27 percent third-quarter 2010 increase in pre-tax unrealized investment portfolio gains, including a $198 million or 36 percent for the bond portfolio and $85 million or 17 percent for the equity portfolio.
                 
 
(Dollars in millions except share data)   At September 30,
2010
  At December 31,
2009
 
Balance sheet data
               
Invested assets
  $ 11,305     $ 10,643  
Total assets
    15,070       14,440  
Short-term debt
    49       49  
Long-term debt
    790       790  
Shareholders’ equity
    5,010       4,760  
Book value per share
    30.80       29.25  
 
Debt-to-capital ratio
    14.3%       15.0%  
                                 
 
       
    Three months ended September 30,     Nine months ended September 30,  
    2010     2009     2010     2009  
 
Performance measure
                               
Value creation ratio
    7.1%       13.1%       9.4%       15.0%  
                               
 
  $11.750 billion in cash and invested assets at September 30, 2010, up from $11.200 billion at December 31, 2009.
 
  $8.466 billion bond portfolio at September 30, 2010, with an average rating of A2/A and with an 8 percent increase in fair value during the first nine months of 2010.
 
  $2.757 billion equity portfolio was 23.7 percent of invested assets, including $580 million in pre-tax net unrealized gains at September 30, 2010.
 
  $3.641 billion of statutory surplus for the property casualty insurance group at September 30, 2010, down slightly from $3.648 billion at December 31, 2009. Ratio of net written premiums to property casualty statutory surplus for the 12 months ended September 30, 2010, of 0.8-to-1, unchanged from the 12 months ended December 31, 2009.
 
  Value creation ratio of 7.1 percent for the third quarter of 2010 is the sum of 1.4 percent from shareholder dividends plus 5.7 percent from change in book value per share.
For additional information or to hear a replay of our October 28 conference call webcast, please visit www.cinfin.com/investors.
Cincinnati Financial Corporation
Condensed Balance Sheets and Statements of Operations (unaudited)
                 
 
(Dollars in millions)   September 30,     December 31,  
    2010     2009  
 
Assets
               
Investments
  $ 11,305     $ 10,643  
Cash and cash equivalents
    445       557  
Premiums receivable
    1,035       995  
Reinsurance receivable
    554       675  
Other assets
    1,731       1,570  
 
           
Total assets
  $ 15,070     $ 14,440  
 
           
 
               
Liabilities
               
Insurance reserves
  $ 6,193     $ 5,925  
Unearned premiums
    1,573       1,509  
Long-term debt
    790       790  
Other liabilities
    1,504       1,456  
 
           
Total liabilities
    10,060       9,680  
 
           
 
               
Shareholders’ Equity
               
Common stock and paid-in capital
    1,480       1,474  
Retained earnings
    3,919       3,862  
Accumulated other comprehensive income
    814       624  
Treasury stock
    (1,203)       (1,200)  
 
           
Total shareholders’ equity
    5,010       4,760  
 
           
Total liabilities and shareholders’ equity
  $ 15,070     $ 14,440  
 
           
                                 
 
(Dollars in millions except per share data) Three months ended
September 30,
  Nine months ended
September 30,
 
    2010     2009     2010     2009  
 
Revenues
                               
Earned premiums
  $ 784     $ 766     $ 2,299     $ 2,301  
Investment income, net of expenses
    128       127       388       370  
Realized investment gains and losses
    155       110       140       90  
Other income
    4       4       9       9  
 
                       
Total revenues
    1,071       1,007       2,836       2,770  
 
                       
 
                               
Benefits and Expenses
                               
Insurance losses and policyholder benefits
    575       498       1,686       1,737  
Underwriting, acquisition and insurance expenses
    258       247       772       750  
Other operating expenses
    4       4       11       14  
Interest expense
    13       14       40       42  
 
                       
Total benefits and expenses
    850       763       2,509       2,543  
 
                       
 
                               
Income before income taxes
    221       244       327       227  
 
                               
Provision for income taxes
    65       73       76       40  
 
                       
Net Income
  $ 156     $ 171     $ 251     $ 187  
 
                       
 
                               
Per Common Share:
                               
Net income —basic
  $ 0.95     $ 1.05     $ 1.54     $ 1.15  
Net income —diluted
  $ 0.95     $ 1.05     $ 1.53     $ 1.15  
 
Definitions of Non-GAAP Information and
Reconciliation to Comparable GAAP Measures
(See attached tables for 2010 reconciliations; prior-period reconciliations available at www.cinfin.com/investors.)
Cincinnati Financial Corporation prepares its public financial statements in conformity with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America (GAAP). Statutory data is prepared in accordance with statutory accounting rules as defined by the National Association of Insurance Commissioners' (NAIC) Accounting Practices and Procedures Manual and therefore is not reconciled to GAAP data.
Management uses certain non-GAAP and non-statutory financial measures to evaluate its primary business areas - property casualty insurance, life insurance and investments. Management uses these measures when analyzing both GAAP and non-GAAP measures to improve its understanding of trends in the underlying business and to help avoid incorrect or misleading assumptions and conclusions about the success or failure of company strategies. Management adjustments to GAAP measures generally: apply to non-recurring events that are unrelated to business performance and distort short-term results; involve values that fluctuate based on events outside of management's control; or relate to accounting refinements that affect comparability between periods, creating a need to analyze data on the same basis.
  Operating income: Operating income is calculated by excluding net realized investment gains and losses (defined as realized investment gains and losses after applicable federal and state income taxes) from net income. Management evaluates operating income to measure the success of pricing, rate and underwriting strategies. While realized investment gains (or losses) are integral to the company's insurance operations over the long term, the determination to realize investment gains or losses in any period may be subject to management's discretion and is independent of the insurance underwriting process. Also, under applicable GAAP accounting requirements, gains and losses can be recognized from certain changes in market values of securities without actual realization. Management believes that the level of realized investment gains or losses for any particular period, while it may be material, may not fully indicate the performance of ongoing underlying business operations in that period.

For these reasons, many investors and shareholders consider operating income to be one of the more meaningful measures for evaluating insurance company performance. Equity analysts who report on the insurance industry and the company generally focus on this metric in their analyses. The company presents operating income so that all investors have what management believes to be a useful supplement to GAAP information.
 
  Statutory accounting rules: For public reporting, insurance companies prepare financial statements in accordance with GAAP. However, insurers also must calculate certain data according to statutory accounting rules as defined in the NAIC's Accounting Practices and Procedures Manual, which may be, and has been, modified by various state insurance departments. Statutory data is publicly available, and various organizations use it to calculate aggregate industry data, study industry trends and compare insurance companies.
 
  Written premium: Under statutory accounting rules, property casualty written premium is the amount recorded for policies issued and recognized on an annualized basis at the effective date of the policy. Management analyzes trends in written premium to assess business efforts. Earned premium, used in both statutory and GAAP accounting, is calculated ratably over the policy term. The difference between written and earned premium is unearned premium.
Cincinnati Financial Corporation
Balance Sheet Reconciliation
                                 
 
(Dollars are per share)   Three months ended
September 30,
    Nine months ended
September 30,
 
    2010     2009     2010     2009  
 
Value creation ratio
                               
End of period book value
  $ 30.80     $ 28.44     $ 30.80     $ 28.44  
Less beginning of period book value
    29.13       25.49       29.25       25.75  
 
                       
Change in book value
    1.67       2.95       1.55       2.69  
Dividend declared to shareholders
    0.40       0.395       1.19       1.175  
 
                       
Total contribution to value creation ratio
  $ 2.07     $ 3.35     $ 2.74     $ 3.87  
 
                       
 
                               
Contribution to value creation ratio from change in book value*
    5.7%       11.6%       5.3%       10.4%  
Contribution to value creation ratio from dividends declared to shareholders**
    1.4       1.5       4.1       4.6  
 
                       
Value creation ratio
    7.1%       13.1%       9.4%       15.0%  
 
                       
 
*  
Change in book value divided by the beginning of period book value
 
**  
Dividend declared to shareholders divided by beginning of period book value
Net Income Reconciliation
                 
 
(In millions except per share data)   Three months ended     Nine months ended  
    September 30, 2010     September 30, 2010  
 
Net income
  $ 156     $ 251  
Net realized investment gains and losses
    100       90  
 
           
Operating income
    56       161  
Less catastrophe losses
    (19)       (93)  
 
           
Operating income before catastrophe losses
  $ 75     $ 254  
 
           
 
               
Diluted per share data:
               
Net income
  $ 0.95     $ 1.53  
Net realized investment gains and losses
    0.61       0.55  
 
           
Operating income
    0.34       0.98  
Less catastrophe losses
    (0.11)       (0.57)  
 
           
Operating income before catastrophe losses
  $ 0.45     $ 1.55  
 
           
 
Property Casualty Reconciliation
                         
 
    Three months ended September 30, 2010  
    Consolidated*     Commercial     Personal  
 
Statutory ratio:
                       
Statutory combined ratio
    104.5%       105.5%       100.7%  
Contribution from catastrophe losses
    3.8       3.2       6.0  
 
                 
Statutory combined ratio excluding catastrophe losses
    100.7%       102.3%       94.7%  
 
                 
 
                       
Commission expense ratio
    18.7%       19.0%       17.1%  
Other expense ratio
    14.2       15.8       11.3  
 
                 
Statutory expense ratio
    32.9%       34.8%       28.4%  
 
                 
 
                       
GAAP ratio:
           
GAAP combined ratio
    103.9%       103.4%       103.4%  
Contribution from catastrophe losses
    3.8       3.2       6.0  
Prior accident years before catastrophe losses
    (7.7)       (9.1)       (3.7)  
 
                 
GAAP combined ratio excluding catastrophe losses and prior years reserve development
    107.8%       109.3%       101.1%  
 
                 
                         
 
    Nine months ended September 30, 2010  
    Consolidated*     Commercial     Personal  
 
Statutory ratio:
                       
Statutory combined ratio
    104.4%       102.2%       108.8%  
Contribution from catastrophe losses
    6.5       5.2       11.0  
 
                 
Statutory combined ratio excluding catastrophe losses
    97.9%       97.0%       97.8%  
 
                 
 
                       
Commission expense ratio
    18.3%       17.9%       19.0%  
Other expense ratio
    14.5       14.8       13.8  
 
                 
Statutory expense ratio
    32.8%       32.7%       32.8%  
 
                 
 
                       
GAAP ratio:
           
GAAP combined ratio
    104.7%       102.4%       109.8%  
Contribution from catastrophe losses
    6.5       5.2       11.0  
Prior accident years before catastrophe losses
    (7.2)       (8.8)       (3.1)  
 
                 
GAAP combined ratio excluding catastrophe losses and prior years reserve development
    105.4%       106.0%       101.9%  
 
                 
 
   
 
   
Dollar amounts shown are rounded to millions; certain amounts may not add due to rounding. Ratios are calculated based on whole dollar amounts.
     
*  
Consolidated property casualty data includes results from our excess and surplus line of business.

 




This report contains forward-looking statements that involve potential risks and uncertainties. For factors that could cause results to differ materially from those discussed, please see the most recent edition of our safe harbor statement under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. To view or print the edition in effect as of this report's initial publication date, please view this document as a printable PDF.