Cement volumes continued to reflect good growth as the South African economy entered a fifth consecutive year of growth, driving regional demand to a record 15,3 million tons per annum. The compound growth rate over this period has been almost 10% per annum and is reflected in the history of regional cement demand growth reflected on the graph below. The cumulative volume growth over the six years since 2001 is likely to reach almost 100% increase by the end of 2007.
Gauteng remained the powerhouse driver of demand accounting for nearly 40% of domestic volumes whilst the Eastern Cape market also exhibited double-digit growth. The Western Cape was flat year on year as the higher than usual winter rainfall disrupted construction activities. The Botswana market grew by 20% as that economy showed signs of recovering after several years of decline.
The government’s stated intent to triple the number of low-cost houses built annually could minimise the impact of any interest rate induced slow-down in private housing cement demand in the medium term.
The increased infrastructural investment planned by government, Eskom and other sectors is gathering momentum and we therefore expect continued demand growth in the year ahead. The bulk to bag ratio has begun to show signs of the anticipated swing toward bulk as the large infrastructural projects are gaining momentum.
Most of the five new 2010 FIFA World Cup stadium projects, existing stadium upgrades and the Gautrain metro contract have commenced and are drawing increasing cement volumes. The Gauteng Province recently announced a R22 billion motorway upgrade project to be completed before 2010. We understand that the commencement of the two new thermal power station projects for Eskom and the new R6,8 billion KwaZulu-Natal “King Shaka international airport” will be announced shortly. |