The Estee Lauder Companies Inc. 2007 Annual Report
Intro
Portfolio of Brands
Chairmans Message
Chief Executives Review
Product Categories
Board of Directors
Officers
Financials
Stockholder Information
Environmental Profile
Form 10-K

MANAGEMENT'S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS OF
FINANCIAL CONDITION AND RESULTS OF OPERATIONS
(continued)

Market Risk
We use a value-at-risk model to assess the market risk of our derivative financial instruments. Value-at-risk represents the potential losses for an instrument or portfolio from adverse changes in market factors for a specified time period and confidence level. We estimate value-at-risk across all of our derivative financial instruments using a model with historical volatilities and correlations calculated over the past 250-day period. The measured value-at-risk, calculated as an average, for the twelve months ended June 30, 2007 related to our foreign exchange contracts and our interest rate contracts was $10.2 million and $7.5 million, respectively. The model estimates were made assuming normal market conditions and a 95 percent confidence level. We used a statistical simulation model that valued our derivative financial instruments against one thousand randomly generated market price paths.

Our calculated value-at-risk exposure represents an estimate of reasonably possible net losses that would be recognized on our portfolio of derivative financial instruments assuming hypothetical movements in future market rates and is not necessarily indicative of actual results, which may or may not occur. It does not represent the maximum possible loss or any expected loss that may occur, since actual future gains and losses will differ from those estimated, based upon actual fluctuations in market rates, operating exposures, and the timing thereof, and changes in our portfolio of derivative financial instruments during the year.

We believe, however, that any such loss incurred would be offset by the effects of market rate movements on the respective underlying transactions for which the derivative financial instrument was intended.

OFF-BALANCE SHEET ARRANGEMENTS
We do not maintain any off-balance sheet arrangements, transactions, obligations or other relationships with unconsolidated entities that would be expected to have a material current or future effect upon our financial condition or results of operations.

RECENTLY ISSUED ACCOUNTING STANDARDS
In June 2006, the FASB issued FASB Interpretation Number ("FIN") 48, "Accounting for Uncertainty in Income Taxes" ("FIN 48"). FIN 48 clarifies the accounting for uncertainty in income taxes recognized in an enterprise's financial statements in accordance with FASB Statement No. 109, "Accounting for Income Taxes." FIN 48 prescribes a two-step evaluation process for tax positions taken, or expected to be taken, in a tax return. The first step is recognition and the second is measurement. For recognition, an enterprise judgmentally determines whether it is more-likely-than-not that a tax position will be sustained upon examination, including resolution of related appeals or litigation processes, based on the technical merits of the position. If the tax position meets the more-likely-than-not recognition threshold it is measured and recognized in the financial statements as the largest amount of tax benefit that is greater than 50% likely of being realized. If a tax position does not meet the morelikely- than-not recognition threshold, the benefit of that position is not recognized in the financial statements.

Tax positions that meet the more-likely-than-not recognition threshold at the effective date of FIN 48 may be recognized or, continue to be recognized, upon adoption of FIN 48. The cumulative effect of applying the provisions of FIN 48 shall be reported as an adjustment to the opening balance of retained earnings for that fiscal year. FIN 48 will apply to fiscal years beginning after December 15, 2006, with earlier adoption permitted. In May 2007, the FASB issued FASB Staff Position ("FSP") No. FIN 48-1, "Definition of Settlement in FASB Interpretation No. 48, an amendment of FASB Interpretation (FIN) No. 48, Accounting for Uncertainty in Income Taxes" ("FSP No. FIN 48-1"). FSP No. FIN 48-1 provides guidance on how to determine whether a tax position is effectively settled for the purpose of recognizing previously unrecognized tax benefits.

The provisions of FIN 48 became effective for us on July 1, 2007. While we are continuing to evaluate the impact of the interpretation on the consolidated financial statements, we expect the cumulative effect of adoption to reduce opening retained earnings by approximately $10 million to $20 million with a corresponding increase to reserves for uncertain tax positions.

In September 2006, the FASB issued Statement of Financial Accounting Standard ("SFAS") No. 157, "Fair Value Measurements" ("SFAS No. 157") to clarify the definition of fair value, establish a framework for measuring fair value and expand the disclosures on fair value measurements. SFAS No. 157 defines fair value as the price that would be received to sell an asset or paid to transfer a liability in an orderly transaction between market participants at the measurement date (an exit price). SFAS No. 157 also stipulates that, as a market-based measurement, fair value measurement should be determined based on the assumptions that market participants would use in pricing the asset or liability, and establishes a fair value hierarchy that distinguishes between (a) market participant assumptions developed based on market data obtained from sources independent of the reporting entity (observable inputs) and (b) the reporting entity's own assumptions about market participant assumptions developed based on the best information available in the circumstances (unobservable inputs). SFAS No. 157 becomes effective for us in our fiscal year ending June 30, 2009. We are currently evaluating the impact of the provisions of SFAS No. 157 on our consolidated financial statements.

In February 2007, the FASB issued SFAS No. 159, "The Fair Value Option for Financial Assets and Financial Liabilities," ("SFAS No. 159") to permit all entities to choose to elect, at specified election dates, to measure eligible financial instruments at fair value. An entity shall report unrealized gains and losses on items for which the fair value option has been elected in earnings at each subsequent reporting date, and recognize upfront costs and fees related to those items in earnings as incurred and not deferred. SFAS No. 159 applies to fiscal years beginning after November 15, 2007, with early adoption permitted for an entity that has also elected to apply the provisions of SFAS No. 157. An entity is prohibited from retrospectively applying SFAS No. 159, unless it chooses early adoption. We are currently evaluating the impact of the provisions of SFAS No. 159 on our consolidated financial statements, if any, when it becomes effective for the fiscal year ending June 30, 2009.

FORWARD-LOOKING INFORMATION
We and our representatives from time to time make written or oral forward-looking statements, including statements contained in this and other filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, in our press releases and in our reports to stockholders. The words and phrases "will likely result," "expect," "believe," "planned," "may," "should," "could," "anticipate," "estimate," "project," "intend," "forecast" or similar expressions are intended to identify "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements include, without limitation, our expectations regarding sales, earnings or other future financial performance and liquidity, product introductions, entry into new geographic regions, information systems initiatives, new methods of sale and future operations or operating results. Although we believe that our expectations are based on reasonable assumptions within the bounds of our knowledge of our business and operations, actual results may differ materially from our expectations. Factors that could cause actual results to differ from expectations include, without limitation:

(1) increased competitive activity from companies in the skin care, makeup, fragrance and hair care businesses, some of which have greater resources than we do;

(2) our ability to develop, produce and market new products on which future operating results may depend and to successfully address challenges in our core brands, including gift with purchase, and in our fragrance business;

(3) consolidations, restructurings, bankruptcies and reorganizations in the retail industry causing a decrease in the number of stores that sell our products, an increase in the ownership concentration within the retail industry, ownership of retailers by our competitors or ownership of competitors by our customers that are retailers;

(4) destocking by retailers;

(5) the success, or changes in timing or scope, of new product launches and the success, or changes in the timing or the scope, of advertising, sampling and merchandising programs;

(6) shifts in the preferences of consumers as to where and how they shop for the types of products and services we sell;

(7) social, political and economic risks to our foreign or domestic manufacturing, distribution and retail operations, including changes in foreign investment and trade policies and regulations of the host countries and of the United States;

(8) changes in the laws, regulations and policies (including the interpretations and enforcement thereof) that affect, or will affect, our business, including those relating to our products, changes in accounting standards, tax laws and regulations, trade rules and customs regulations, and the outcome and expense of legal or regulatory proceedings, and any action we may take as a result;

(9) foreign currency fluctuations affecting our results of operations and the value of our foreign assets, the relative prices at which we and our foreign competitors sell products in the same markets and our operating and manufacturing costs outside of the United States;

(10) changes in global or local conditions, including those due to natural or man-made disasters, real or perceived epidemics, or energy costs, that could affect consumer purchasing, the willingness or ability of consumers to travel and/or purchase our products while traveling, the financial strength of our customers or suppliers, our operations, the cost and availability of capital which we may need for new equipment, facilities or acquisitions, the cost and availability of raw materials and the assumptions underlying our critical accounting estimates;

(11) shipment delays, depletion of inventory and increased production costs resulting from disruptions of operations at any of the facilities that manufacture nearly all of our supply of a particular type of product (i.e., focus factories) or at our distribution or inventory centers, including disruptions that may be caused by the implementation of SAP as part of our Strategic Modernization Initiative;

(12) real estate rates and availability, which may affect our ability to increase the number of retail locations at which we sell our products and the costs associated with our other facilities;

(13) changes in product mix to products which are less profitable;

(14) our ability to acquire, develop or implement new information and distribution technologies, on a timely basis and within our cost estimates;

(15) our ability to capitalize on opportunities for improved efficiency, such as publicly-announced cost-savings initiatives and the success of Stila under new ownership, and to integrate acquired businesses and realize value therefrom;

(16) consequences attributable to the events that are currently taking place in the Middle East, including terrorist attacks, retaliation and the threat of further attacks or retaliation;

(17) the timing and impact of acquisitions and divestitures, which depend on willing sellers and buyers, respectively; and

(18) additional factors as described in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including this Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended June 30, 2007.

We assume no responsibility to update forward-looking statements made herein or otherwise.