MANAGEMENT'S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS OF
FINANCIAL CONDITION AND RESULTS OF OPERATIONS
(continued)
Market Risk
We use a value-at-risk model to assess the market risk of
our derivative financial instruments. Value-at-risk represents
the potential losses for an instrument or portfolio
from adverse changes in market factors for a specified
time period and confidence level. We estimate value-at-risk
across all of our derivative financial instruments using
a model with historical volatilities and correlations calculated
over the past 250-day period. The measured value-at-risk, calculated as an average, for the twelve months
ended June 30, 2007 related to our foreign exchange contracts
and our interest rate contracts was $10.2 million
and $7.5 million, respectively. The model estimates were
made assuming normal market conditions and a 95 percent
confidence level. We used a statistical simulation
model that valued our derivative financial instruments
against one thousand randomly generated market
price paths.
Our calculated value-at-risk exposure represents an
estimate of reasonably possible net losses that would be
recognized on our portfolio of derivative financial instruments
assuming hypothetical movements in future market
rates and is not necessarily indicative of actual results,
which may or may not occur. It does not represent the
maximum possible loss or any expected loss that may
occur, since actual future gains and losses will differ from
those estimated, based upon actual fluctuations in market
rates, operating exposures, and the timing thereof, and
changes in our portfolio of derivative financial instruments
during the year.
We believe, however, that any such loss incurred would
be offset by the effects of market rate movements on the
respective underlying transactions for which the derivative
financial instrument was intended.
OFF-BALANCE SHEET ARRANGEMENTS
We do not maintain any off-balance sheet arrangements,
transactions, obligations or other relationships with
unconsolidated entities that would be expected to have a
material current or future effect upon our financial condition
or results of operations.
RECENTLY ISSUED ACCOUNTING STANDARDS
In June 2006, the FASB issued FASB Interpretation Number
("FIN") 48, "Accounting for Uncertainty in Income
Taxes" ("FIN 48"). FIN 48 clarifies the accounting for
uncertainty in income taxes recognized in an enterprise's
financial statements in accordance with FASB Statement
No. 109, "Accounting for Income Taxes." FIN 48 prescribes
a two-step evaluation process for tax positions
taken, or expected to be taken, in a tax return. The first
step is recognition and the second is measurement. For
recognition, an enterprise judgmentally determines
whether it is more-likely-than-not that a tax position will
be sustained upon examination, including resolution of
related appeals or litigation processes, based on the technical
merits of the position. If the tax position meets the
more-likely-than-not recognition threshold it is measured
and recognized in the financial statements as the largest
amount of tax benefit that is greater than 50% likely of
being realized. If a tax position does not meet the morelikely-
than-not recognition threshold, the benefit of that
position is not recognized in the financial statements.
Tax positions that meet the more-likely-than-not recognition
threshold at the effective date of FIN 48 may be
recognized or, continue to be recognized, upon adoption
of FIN 48. The cumulative effect of applying the provisions
of FIN 48 shall be reported as an adjustment to the
opening balance of retained earnings for that fiscal year.
FIN 48 will apply to fiscal years beginning after December
15, 2006, with earlier adoption permitted. In May 2007,
the FASB issued FASB Staff Position ("FSP") No. FIN 48-1,
"Definition of Settlement in FASB Interpretation No. 48,
an amendment of FASB Interpretation (FIN) No. 48,
Accounting for Uncertainty in Income Taxes" ("FSP
No. FIN 48-1"). FSP No. FIN 48-1 provides guidance on
how to determine whether a tax position is effectively
settled for the purpose of recognizing previously
unrecognized tax benefits.
The provisions of FIN 48 became effective for us on
July 1, 2007. While we are continuing to evaluate the
impact of the interpretation on the consolidated financial
statements, we expect the cumulative effect of adoption
to reduce opening retained earnings by approximately
$10 million to $20 million with a corresponding increase
to reserves for uncertain tax positions.
In September 2006, the FASB issued Statement of
Financial Accounting Standard ("SFAS") No. 157, "Fair
Value Measurements" ("SFAS No. 157") to clarify the definition
of fair value, establish a framework for measuring
fair value and expand the disclosures on fair value
measurements. SFAS No. 157 defines fair value as the
price that would be received to sell an asset or paid to
transfer a liability in an orderly transaction between market
participants at the measurement date (an exit price).
SFAS No. 157 also stipulates that, as a market-based measurement,
fair value measurement should be determined
based on the assumptions that market participants would
use in pricing the asset or liability, and establishes a fair
value hierarchy that distinguishes between (a) market participant
assumptions developed based on market data
obtained from sources independent of the reporting
entity (observable inputs) and (b) the reporting entity's
own assumptions about market participant assumptions
developed based on the best information available in the
circumstances (unobservable inputs). SFAS No. 157
becomes effective for us in our fiscal year ending
June 30, 2009. We are currently evaluating the impact of
the provisions of SFAS No. 157 on our consolidated
financial statements.
In February 2007, the FASB issued SFAS No. 159,
"The Fair Value Option for Financial Assets and Financial
Liabilities," ("SFAS No. 159") to permit all entities to
choose to elect, at specified election dates, to measure
eligible financial instruments at fair value. An entity shall
report unrealized gains and losses on items for which the
fair value option has been elected in earnings at each subsequent
reporting date, and recognize upfront costs and
fees related to those items in earnings as incurred and not
deferred. SFAS No. 159 applies to fiscal years beginning
after November 15, 2007, with early adoption permitted
for an entity that has also elected to apply the provisions
of SFAS No. 157. An entity is prohibited from retrospectively
applying SFAS No. 159, unless it chooses early adoption.
We are currently evaluating the impact of the
provisions of SFAS No. 159 on our consolidated financial
statements, if any, when it becomes effective for the fiscal
year ending June 30, 2009.
FORWARD-LOOKING INFORMATION
We and our representatives from time to time make written
or oral forward-looking statements, including statements
contained in this and other filings with the
Securities and Exchange Commission, in our press releases
and in our reports to stockholders. The words and phrases
"will likely result," "expect," "believe," "planned," "may,"
"should," "could," "anticipate," "estimate," "project,"
"intend," "forecast" or similar expressions are intended to
identify "forward-looking statements" within the meaning
of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.
These statements include, without limitation, our expectations
regarding sales, earnings or other future financial
performance and liquidity, product introductions,
entry into new geographic regions, information systems
initiatives, new methods of sale and future operations or
operating results. Although we believe that our expectations
are based on reasonable assumptions within the
bounds of our knowledge of our business and operations,
actual results may differ materially from our expectations.
Factors that could cause actual results to differ from
expectations include, without limitation:
(1) increased competitive activity from companies in the
skin care, makeup, fragrance and hair care businesses,
some of which have greater resources than we do;
(2) our ability to develop, produce and market new products
on which future operating results may depend and to
successfully address challenges in our core brands, including
gift with purchase, and in our fragrance business;
(3) consolidations, restructurings, bankruptcies and
reorganizations in the retail industry causing a decrease in
the number of stores that sell our products, an increase
in the ownership concentration within the retail industry,
ownership of retailers by our competitors or ownership of
competitors by our customers that are retailers;
(4) destocking by retailers;
(5) the success, or changes in timing or scope, of new
product launches and the success, or changes in the
timing or the scope, of advertising, sampling and merchandising
programs;
(6) shifts in the preferences of consumers as to where and
how they shop for the types of products and services
we sell;
(7) social, political and economic risks to our foreign or
domestic manufacturing, distribution and retail operations,
including changes in foreign investment and trade
policies and regulations of the host countries and of the
United States;
(8) changes in the laws, regulations and policies (including
the interpretations and enforcement thereof) that
affect, or will affect, our business, including those relating
to our products, changes in accounting standards, tax
laws and regulations, trade rules and customs regulations,
and the outcome and expense of legal or regulatory
proceedings, and any action we may take as a result;
(9) foreign currency fluctuations affecting our results of
operations and the value of our foreign assets, the relative
prices at which we and our foreign competitors sell
products in the same markets and our operating and
manufacturing costs outside of the United States;
(10) changes in global or local conditions, including those
due to natural or man-made disasters, real or perceived
epidemics, or energy costs, that could affect consumer
purchasing, the willingness or ability of consumers to
travel and/or purchase our products while traveling, the
financial strength of our customers or suppliers, our operations,
the cost and availability of capital which we may
need for new equipment, facilities or acquisitions, the cost
and availability of raw materials and the assumptions
underlying our critical accounting estimates;
(11) shipment delays, depletion of inventory and increased
production costs resulting from disruptions of operations
at any of the facilities that manufacture nearly all of our
supply of a particular type of product (i.e., focus factories)
or at our distribution or inventory centers, including
disruptions that may be caused by the implementation of
SAP as part of our Strategic Modernization Initiative;
(12) real estate rates and availability, which may affect our
ability to increase the number of retail locations at which
we sell our products and the costs associated with our
other facilities;
(13) changes in product mix to products which are less
profitable;
(14) our ability to acquire, develop or implement new
information and distribution technologies, on a timely
basis and within our cost estimates;
(15) our ability to capitalize on opportunities for improved
efficiency, such as publicly-announced cost-savings
initiatives and the success of Stila under new ownership,
and to integrate acquired businesses and realize
value therefrom;
(16) consequences attributable to the events that are currently
taking place in the Middle East, including terrorist
attacks, retaliation and the threat of further attacks
or retaliation;
(17) the timing and impact of acquisitions and divestitures,
which depend on willing sellers and buyers,
respectively; and
(18) additional factors as described in our filings with the
Securities and Exchange Commission, including this
Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended
June 30, 2007.
We assume no responsibility to update forward-looking
statements made herein or otherwise.
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