Cincinnati Financial Corporation

2009 First-quarter Letter to Shareholders

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Cincinnati Financial Reports First-quarter 2009 Results

Cincinnati, April 30, 2009 — Cincinnati Financial Corporation (Nasdaq: CINF) today reported:

  First-quarter 2009 net income of $35 million, or 22 cents per share, compared with a net loss of $42 million, or 26 cents per share, in the first quarter of 2008.
 
  Operating income* of $37 million, or 23 cents per share, compared with $109 million, or 66 cents per share.
 
  Previously announced catastrophe losses and workers’ compensation reserve strengthening reduced first-quarter net income by 29 cents per share compared with 15 cents per share for first-quarter 2008.
 
  The investment income portion of net income per share for the first quarter of 2009 was 59 cents compared with 74 cents for the first quarter of 2008, down 15 cents per share.
Financial Highlights
                         
 
(Dollars in millions except share data)   Three months ended March 31,  
    2009     2008     Change %  
 
Revenue Highlights
                       
Earned premiums
  $ 765     $ 780       (2.0)  
Investment income
    124       152       (18.7)  
Total revenues
    890       704       26.5  
Income Statement Data
                       
Net income (loss)
  $ 35     $ (42)       nm  
Net realized investment gains and losses
    (2)       (151)       98.9  
 
                   
Operating income*
  $ 37     $ 109       (65.7)  
 
                   
Per Share Data (diluted)
                       
Net income
  $ 0.22     $ (0.26)       nm  
Net realized investment gains and losses
    (0.01)       (0.92)       98.9  
 
                   
Operating income*
  $ 0.23     $ 0.66       (65.2)  
 
                   
 
                       
Book value
    23.88       33.40       (28.5)  
Cash dividend declared
  $ 0.39     $ 0.39       0.0  
Diluted weighted average shares outstanding
    162,663,625       165,105,311       (1.5)  
 
Insurance Operations Highlights
  107.5 percent first-quarter 2009 property casualty combined ratio, representing an underwriting loss of $55 million.
 
  Property casualty net written premiums increased $2 million or 0.3 percent, including $7 million in net written premiums from surplus lines operation launched in 2008.
 
  $21 million increase in property casualty new business written by agencies in the first quarter of 2009, driven by new agents appointed in recent years and expansion of surplus lines and personal lines marketing in established agencies.
Investment and Balance Sheet Highlights
  $515 million in cash and cash equivalents at March 31, 2009, providing exceptional liquidity and capital flexibility for shareholder dividends and capacity for future insurance operations growth.
 
  $23.88 book value, down from $25.75 at December 31, 2008, mainly due to lower investment portfolio valuation.
 
  Investment portfolio at March 31, 2009, reflected capital preservation diversification strategy. Investment income declined in the first quarter on portfolio changes and on lower dividends from holdings in the equity portfolio, partially offset by higher interest income from bonds.
 
*  
Our Definitions of Non-GAAP Information and Reconciliation to Comparable GAAP Measures appears on our Web site, www.cinfin.com/investors, and defines and reconciles measures presented in this release that are not based on Generally Accepted Accounting Principles or Statutory Accounting Principles.
 
**  
Forward-looking statements and related assumptions are subject to the risks outlined in the company’s
safe harbor statement.
 
nm
 
Not meaningful
Market Challenges Continue
Kenneth W. Stecher, president and chief executive officer, commented, “As anticipated, 2009 is shaping up to be a challenging, transitional year for our company, our industry and our economy. Our first-quarter results affirm that view. At the same time, our progress on key initiatives affirms our confidence that we will emerge a stronger, more competitive company as conditions improve. Looking past 2009 to the 2010-2014 period, we continue to target a five-year value creation ratio of 12 percent to 15 percent growth, reflecting the total of our rate of growth in book value plus the rate of dividend contribution.
“The broader economic and investment market trends and the low pricing trend in commercial insurance all appeared to be in a holding pattern over the first months of 2009 — not getting much worse but not getting much better either. Continued soft pricing and two other items significantly affected our profitability for the first quarter. We announced on April 16 that our property casualty insurance operations — our main business — experienced high catastrophe losses from winter storms. Our claims representatives promptly assisted policyholders in the South, Midwest and East, and as of this week, 88 percent of the more than 8,600 reported claims from those storms are closed. We also reported on April 16 that we strengthened workers’ compensation reserves for claims incurred in prior years, recognizing that loss cost inflation, including medical costs, was higher than previously anticipated.
“We believe consistent and conservative reserving practices are never more important than during a period of economic distress. Likewise, we believe the superior claims service we provide in storm situations is an investment,” Stecher said. “It earns policyholder and agent loyalty, ultimately bringing us new business as policyholders spread the word. Our commitment to high standards of service and a long-term perspective persists through all phases of economic and industry cycles.
“We expect unfavorable economic, investment and insurance pricing trends to continue over the coming months, dampening 2009 results and masking the positive impact of progress on our strategic initiatives — which clearly are not in a holding pattern. Our strong capital, financial flexibility and commitment to our agency-centered business model have allowed us to push steadily forward with diversification of our equity investment portfolio; with geographical expansion that will better spread our risk and reduce our vulnerability to catastrophe losses; with our new surplus lines business; and with technology improvements that are making processing more efficient for our company and our independent agencies.”
Progress On Strategic Initiatives
Stecher continued, “Preserving capital is our first priority, supported by our initiative to diversify our $8.794 billion investment portfolio. At March 31, equity investments accounted for approximately 26.2 percent of our investment portfolio, reduced from 32.9 percent at year-end 2008 and now at the lowest level in many years. In the first quarter, we sold or reduced our holdings of some stocks that had appreciated to our target price, and others where we saw opportunities to improve portfolio diversification. Further, we sold our remaining bank stocks, consistent with our longstanding preference for dividend-paying stocks and the current lack of visibility on resumption of dividends from bank holdings. At quarter-end, no single sector accounted for more than 26 percent of the equity portfolio and no single holding accounted for more than 11 percent.
“Although we have reduced our near term exposure to the equity markets, we intend to continue to include common stocks as a key component of our investing strategy. Currently, we are purchasing more taxable and municipal bonds, which increased our pretax interest income for the first quarter by $20 million compared with interest income at this time last year. The increase was insufficient to offset a $46 million reduction in dividend income. We continue to invest for both income growth and potential for appreciation, anticipating that investment income may resume growth in the second half of the year.
“For our property casualty insurance operations, we are pursuing several new business growth initiatives, both to improve our long-term competitive position and to offset lower written premiums, which have been reduced by our emphasis on selectivity when writing or renewing accounts at prevailing low prices. While we do compete for high quality accounts, we do not aim to offer the lowest price due to the value of our coverages, claims service and multi-year policy contracts.
“New commercial business grew 14.9 percent in the first quarter. To generate increased new business that meets our standards, we continued adding to our sales force, appointing 18 new agencies in the first quarter. We added a third commercial marketing territory in our newest state of operations, Texas, and continued preparing to begin agency selection and marketing in Colorado and Wyoming later this year. Our personal lines operation also expanded in the first quarter; with the addition of Idaho and South Carolina, we now market homeowner and personal auto insurance in 29 states. These expansions help set the stage to diversify catastrophe risk arising from geographical concentration, although it generally takes time for new agency relationships to mature and for written premiums to grow.
“Our strong new business also reflected our agents’ very favorable response to our surplus lines products, available since the first quarter of 2008, when we wrote $1 million of new surplus lines business. Just a year later, our first-quarter 2009 new surplus lines business was $7 million.
“Our technology progress is making it possible to attract more professional agencies as we expand and to increase efficiencies that will save time and money for all of our agencies and our company. These advances also improve service for policyholders and give them more options. First-quarter milestones included enhancement of our claims system to allow many agencies to securely submit notice of loss online and introduction of a new online payment system for personal lines policyholders who are billed by our company instead of their agency. In the second quarter, we plan to begin offering direct billing of workers’ compensation policies.
“Our major projects are on track. We will take a major leap forward before year-end as agencies in 11 states begin using our new commercial policy administration system. It will offer efficiencies such as real time policy quote and issue and payment options including direct billing, monthly payments and electronic funds transfer. We expect this system to have a positive impact on future growth from our agencies.”
Stecher concluded, “First quarter was less than satisfactory for our company, and there are few signs that industry and economic conditions will improve in the near term. We are not daunted. We are carefully managing risk and prudently adapting, all the while working to build more value, service and stability for agents and policyholders, and ultimately more shareholder value.”
Consolidated Property Casualty Insurance Operations
                         
 
(Dollars in millions; percent change given for dollar amounts   Three months ended March 31,  
and point change given for ratios)   2009     2008     Change %  
 
Earned premiums
  $ 732     $ 751       (2.5)  
 
                       
Loss and loss expenses before catastrophe losses
    491       458       7.2  
Loss and loss expenses from catastrophe losses
    53       43       22.9  
 
                   
Total loss and loss expenses
    544       501       8.5  
Underwriting expenses
    243       240       1.5  
 
                   
Underwriting (loss) profit
  $ (55)     $ 10       nm  
 
                   
 
                       
Other business metrics:
                       
Agency renewal written premiums
  $ 695     $ 733       (5.2)  
Agency new business written premiums
    97       76       28.9  
Net written premiums
    778       776       0.3  
 
                       
Ratios as a percent of earned premiums:
                  Points
 
                     
Loss and loss expenses
    74.2%       66.7%       7.5  
Underwriting expenses
    33.3       31.9       1.4  
 
                 
Combined ratio
    107.5%       98.6%       8.9  
 
                 
 
                       
Other business metrics:
                       
Contribution from catastrophe losses
    7.2       5.7       1.5  
Contribution from prior period reserve development
    0.9       (1.8)       2.7  
 
  $2 million or 0.3 percent increase in first-quarter property casualty net written premiums, as growth in new business offset much of the effect of soft pricing, exposure decreases and disciplined underwriting for renewal business.
 
  $21 million increase in 2009 new business written by agencies reflected the contribution from growth initiatives, including $4 million increase from agencies appointed since January 2008 and $6 million increase from surplus lines.
 
  .97-to-1 ratio of net written premiums to property casualty statutory surplus for the 12 months ended March 31, 2009, up from 0.89-to-1 ratio for the 12 months ended December 31, 2008.
 
  1,141 agency relationships with 1,406 reporting locations marketing standard market property casualty insurance products at March 31, 2009, up from 1,133 agency relationships with 1,387 reporting locations at year-end 2008.
 
  First-quarter 2009 GAAP combined ratio increased 8.9 percentage points primarily due to previously announced higher catastrophe losses and unfavorable development on prior accident years loss and loss expense reserves.
                                 
 
(In millions, net of reinsurance)     Three months ended March 31,  
        Commercial     Personal        
Dates   Cause of loss   Region   lines     lines     Total  
 
2009
                               
Jan. 26-28
  Flood, freezing, ice, snow   South, Midwest   $ 6     $ 14     $ 20  
Feb. 10-13
  Flood, hail, wind, water damage   South, Midwest, East     12       18       30  
Feb. 18-19
  Wind, hail   South     0       5       5  
Development on 2008 and prior catastrophes
    (4)       2       (2)  
 
                         
Calender year incurred total
  $ 14     $ 39     $ 53  
 
                         
2008
                               
Jan. 4-9
  Wind, hail, flood, freezing   South, Midwest   $ 3     $ 3     $ 6  
Jan. 29-30
  Wind, hail   Midwest     5       5       10  
Feb. 5-6
  Wind, hail, flood   Midwest     8       9       17  
Mar. 14
  Tornadoes, wind, hail, flood   South     5       1       6  
Mar. 15-16
  Wind, hail   South     4       4       8  
Development on 2007 and prior catastrophes
        (3)       (1)       (4)  
 
                         
Calendar year incurred total
        $ 22     $ 21     $ 43  
 
                         
 
Insurance Segments Highlights

Commercial Lines Insurance Operations
                         
 
(Dollars in millions; percent change given for dollar amounts   Three months ended March 31,  
and point change given for ratios)   2009     2008     Change %  
 
Earned premiums
  $ 557     $ 574       (3.1)  
 
                       
Loss and loss expenses before catastrophe losses
    374       343       9.2  
Loss and loss expenses from catastrophe losses
    14       22       (37.4)  
 
                   
Total loss and loss expenses
    388       365       6.4  
Underwriting expenses
    181       180       0.1  
 
                   
Underwriting (loss) profit
  $ (12)     $ 29     nm  
 
                   
 
                       
Other business metrics:
                       
Agency renewal written premiums
  $ 557     $ 588       (5.2)  
Agency new business written premiums
    76       66       14.9  
Net written premiums
    626       625       0.1  
 
                       
Ratios as a percent of earned premiums:
                  Points
 
                     
Loss and loss expenses
    69.8%       63.6%       6.2  
Underwriting expenses
    32.4       31.4       1.0  
 
                 
Combined ratio
    102.2%       95.0%       7.2  
 
                 
 
                       
Other business metrics:
                       
Contribution from catastrophe losses
    2.5       3.9       (1.4)  
Contribution from prior period reserve development
    1.5       (2.5)       4.0  
 
  $1 million or 0.1 percent increase in first-quarter commercial lines net written premiums. Lower renewal premiums were offset by growth in new business and the combined impact of reinsurance and adjustments for policies in effect but still in process.
 
  $76 million in first-quarter 2009 new commercial lines business written directly by agencies, up 14.9 percent from $66 million in last year’s first quarter. $4 million of increase is from agents appointed since January 2008 and $4 million of increase is from ancillary standard market business from accounts originating from new excess and surplus lines policies.
 
  7.2 percentage-point increase in first-quarter 2009 combined ratio primarily due to previously announced strengthening of workers’ compensation loss and loss expense reserves for prior accident years.
Personal Lines Insurance Operations
                         
 
(Dollars in millions; percent change given for dollar amounts   Three months ended March 31,  
and point change given for ratios)   2009     2008     Change %  
 
Earned premiums
  $ 171     $ 177       (3.0)  
 
                       
Loss and loss expenses before catastrophe losses
    113       115       (1.7)  
Loss and loss expenses from catastrophe losses
    39       21       88.7  
 
                   
Total loss and loss expenses
    152       136       12.0  
Underwriting expenses
    54       59       (6.8)  
 
                   
Underwriting loss
  $ (35)     $ (18)       (99.3)  
 
                   
 
                       
Other business metrics:
                       
Agency renewal direct written premiums
  $ 137     $ 146       (6.0)  
Agency new business direct written premiums
    14       8       67.2  
Net written premiums
    145       150       (3.5)  
 
                       
Ratios as a percent of earned premiums:
                  Points
 
                     
Loss and loss expenses
    88.6%       76.7%       11.9  
Underwriting expenses
    32.1       33.4       (1.3)  
 
                 
Combined ratio
    120.7%       110.1%       10.6  
 
                 
 
                       
Other business metrics:
                       
Contribution from catastrophe losses
    22.6       11.6       11.0  
Contribution from prior period reserve development
    (0.7)       0.7       (1.4)  
 
  3.5 percent decline in first-quarter personal lines net written premiums. Higher new personal lines business continued to be offset by pricing changes that reduce premiums per policy.
 
  $6 million increase in first-quarter 2009 personal lines new business written directly by agencies including $2 million from seven states where writing business or significant expansion of personal lines product offerings and automation capabilities commenced in 2008.
 
  10.6 percentage point-increase in the combined ratio driven by an 11.0 percentage-point increase in catastrophe losses.
Life Insurance Operations
                         
 
(In millions)   Three months ended March 31,  
    2009     2008       Change%  
 
Written premiums
  $ 50     $ 44       14.3  
 
                   
 
                       
Earned premiums
  $ 33     $ 29       12.5  
Investment income, net of expenses
    30       29       2.7  
Other income
    1       1       (43.5)  
 
                   
Total revenues, excluding realized investment gains and losses
    64       59       7.0  
 
                   
Contract holders benefits
    39       35       9.0  
Expenses
    12       12       4.5  
 
                   
Total benefits and expenses
    51       47       7.9  
 
                   
Net income before income tax and realized investment gains and losses
    13       12       3.3  
Income tax
    5       4       5.3  
 
                   
Net income before realized investment gains and losses
  $ 8     $ 8       2.3  
 
                   
 
  $50 million in first-quarter 2009 life insurance segment net written premiums. Written premiums include life insurance, annuity and accident and health premiums.
 
  6.7 percent increase to $37 million in written premiums for life insurance products in total.
 
  12.3 percent rise to $20 million in term life insurance written premiums, reflecting marketing advantages of competitive, up-to-date products, providing close personal attention and offering policies backed by financial strength and stability.
 
  1.3 percent rise in face amount of life policies in force to $66.756 billion at March 31, 2009, from $65.888 billion at year-end 2008.
Investment and Balance Sheet Highlights
Investment Operations
                         
 
(In millions)   Three months ended March 31,  
    2009     2008     Change %  
 
Investment income:
                       
Interest
  $ 96     $ 76       26.4  
Dividends
    27       73       (63.9)  
Other
    3       5       (29.7)  
Investment expenses
    (2)       (2)       (11.5)  
 
                   
Total investment income, net of expenses
    124       152       (18.7)  
 
                   
Investment interest credited to contract holders
    (16)       (16)       5.8  
 
                   
Realized investment gains and losses summary:
                       
Realized investment gains and losses
    52       (16)     nm  
Change in fair value of securities with embedded derivatives
    (4)       (2)       (54.2)  
Other-than-temporary impairment charges
    (50)       (214)       76.8  
 
                   
Total realized investment gains and losses
    (2)       (232)       99.3  
 
                   
Investment operations income (loss)
  $ 106     $ (96)     nm  
 
                   
 
  18.7 percent decline in first-quarter 2009 net investment income, due primarily to dividend reductions by equity security holdings.
  $2 million realized investment loss in first-quarter 2009 compared with realized investment loss of $232 million in first quarter 2008.
  First-quarter pretax realized investment loss included $50 million non-cash charge for other-than-temporary impairments that recognize significant market value declines, primarily for the fixed-maturities portfolio.
                 
 
(Dollars in millions except share data)   At March 31,   At December 31,
    2009   2008
 
Balance sheet data
               
Invested assets
  $ 8,876     $ 8,890  
Total assets
    13,108       13,369  
Short-term debt
    49       49  
Long-term debt
    790       791  
Shareholders’ equity
    3,881       4,182  
Book value per share
    23.88       25.75  
Debt-to-capital ratio
    17.8%       16.7%  
           
 
  Three months ended March 31,  
    2009   2008  
Performance measures
         
Value creation ratio
       (5.7) %       (5.4) %  
 
  $9.391 billion in cash and invested assets at March 31, 2009, compared with $9.899 billion at December 31, 2008. Cash and equivalents of $515 million at March 31, 2009, compared with $1.009 billion at December 31, 2008.
  $6.479 billion A2/A+-average rated bond portfolio at March 31, 2009, reflecting a diverse mix of taxable and tax-exempt securities.
  $2.302 billion equity portfolio was 25.9 percent of invested assets and included $309 million in pretax unrealized gains at March 31, 2009.
  Application of new investment parameters led to financial sector holdings at 2.9 percent of publicly traded common stocks portfolio as of March 31, 2009, down from 12.4 percent at year-end 2008.
  $3.105 billion of statutory surplus for the property casualty insurance group at March 31, 2009, compared with $3.360 billion at December 31, 2008.
  Value creation ratio decreased due to the decline in the market value of the investment portfolio.
Additional information is available on our Web site, www.cinfin.com/investors, including an audio replay of the April 30th conference call webcast.
Cincinnati Financial Corporation
Condensed Balance Sheets and Statements of Income (unaudited)
                 
 
(Dollars in millions)   March 31,     December 31,  
    2009     2008  
 
Assets
               
Investments
  $ 8,876     $ 8,890  
Cash and cash equivalents
    515       1,009  
Premiums receivable
    1,085       1,059  
Reinsurance receivable
    735       759  
Deferred income tax
    275       126  
Other assets
    1,622       1,526  
 
           
Total assets
  $ 13,108     $ 13,369  
 
           
 
               
Liabilities
               
Insurance reserves
  $ 5,666     $ 5,637  
Unearned premiums
    1,582       1,544  
6.125% senior notes due 2034
    371       371  
6.9% senior debentures due 2028
    28       28  
6.92% senior debentures due 2028
    391       392  
Other liabilities
    1,189       1,215  
 
           
Total liabilities
    9,227       9,187  
 
           
 
               
Shareholders’ Equity
               
Common stock and paid-in capital
    1,465       1,462  
Retained earnings
    3,551       3,579  
Accumulated other comprehensive income
    69       347  
Treasury stock
    (1,204)       (1,206)  
 
           
Total shareholders’ equity
    3,881       4,182  
 
           
Total liabilities and shareholders’ equity
  $ 13,108     $ 13,369  
 
           
 
                 
(Dollars in millions except per share data)   Three months ended March 31,  
    2009     2008  
 
Revenues
               
Earned premiums
  $ 765     $ 780  
Investment income, net of expenses
    124       152  
Realized investment gains and losses
    (2)       (232)  
Other income
    3       4  
 
           
Total revenues
    890       704  
 
           
 
               
Benefits and Expenses
               
Insurance losses and policyholder benefits
    581       536  
Commissions
    152       150  
Other operating expenses
    123       118  
 
           
Total benefits and expenses
    856       804  
 
           
 
               
Income Before Income Taxes
    34       (100)  
 
               
Benefit for Income Taxes
    (1)       (58)  
 
           
Net Income (Loss)
  $ 35     $ (42)  
 
           
 
               
Per Common Share:
               
Net income (loss)—basic
  $ 0.22     $ (0.26)  
Net income (loss)—diluted
  $ 0.22     $ (0.26)  
 



This report contains forward-looking statements that involve potential risks and uncertainties. For factors that could cause results to differ materially from those discussed, please see the most recent edition of our safe harbor statement under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. To view or print the edition in effect as of this report's initial publication date, please view this document as a printable PDF.