Outlook
2010 financial year
| Adjusted operating profit £bn |
Free cash flow(1) £bn |
|
|---|---|---|
| 2009 performance | 11.8 | 5.7(1) |
| 2010 outlook(2)(3) | 11.0 to 11.8 | 6.0 to 6.5 |
Notes:
- (1)
- Excludes spectrum and licence payments but includes payments in respect of long standing tax issues. The amount for the 2009 financial year is stated after £0.3 billion of tax payments, including associated interest, in respect of a number of long standing tax issues.
- (2)
- Includes assumptions of average foreign exchange rates for the 2010 financial year of approximately £1:€1.12 (2009: 1.20) and £1:US$1.50 (2009: 1.72). A substantial majority of the Group’s adjusted operating profit and free cash flow is denominated in currencies other than sterling, the Group’s reporting currency. A 1% change in the euro to sterling exchange rate would impact adjusted operating profit by approximately £70 million.
- (3)
- The outlook does not include the impact of reorganisation costs arising from the Alltel acquisition by Verizon Wireless but includes the impact of the Group’s acquisition of a further 15.0% stake in Vodacom and the consolidation of that entity from 18 May 2009.
In Europe and Central Europe, recent significant declines in GDP and continued competitive intensity will make operating conditions challenging in the 2010 financial year. In these markets, the Group expects that voice and messaging revenue trends will continue as a result of ongoing pricing pressures and slowing usage growth. However, further growth in data revenue is expected. In Turkey, the Group expects that the 2010 financial year will be challenging. Revenue growth in other emerging markets, in particular India and Africa, is expected to continue as the Group drives penetration in these markets. The Group expects another year of good performance at Verizon Wireless.
Adjusted operating profit is expected to be in the range £11.0 billion to £11.8 billion, with benefits from the improved foreign exchange environment being offset by weaker trends in trading. The wider outlook range for adjusted operating profit is consistent with the uncertain economic environment. Performance will be determined by actual economic trends, the Group’s speed in closing performance gaps which exist in certain markets and the extent to which the Group decides to reinvest part of its cost savings into total communications growth opportunities. Underlying EBITDA margins in the 2010 financial year, before the impact of acquisitions and disposals, foreign exchange and business mix, are expected to decline by a similar amount to the 2009 financial year, reflecting the benefit of the acceleration of the Group’s cost savings programme in a weaker revenue environment. Overall Group EBITDA margin is expected to decline at a slightly slower rate. Total depreciation and amortisation charges are expected to be around £8.5 billion, higher than in the 2009 financial year as the result of the acquisition of a further stake in Vodacom and the consolidation of that entity from 18 May 2009, capital expenditure in India and the impact of foreign exchange rates.
Free cash flow before licence and spectrum payments is expected to be in the range £6.0 billion to £6.5 billion, ahead of the Group’s medium term target to deliver between £5.0 and £6.0 billion annual free cash flow. Capitalised fixed asset additions are expected to be at a similar level to the 2009 financial year after adjusting for the impact of foreign exchange. European capital intensity will be around 10% of revenue and the Group expects to continue to invest in India.
The Group continues to make significant cash payments for tax and associated interest in respect of long standing tax issues. The Group does not expect resolution of the application of UK Controlled Foreign Company legislation to the Group in the near term.
The adjusted tax rate percentage is expected to be in the mid 20s for the 2010 financial year, driven by reducing rates of corporate taxation in certain countries where the Group operates, with the Group targeting a similar level in the medium term.