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The Progressive Corporation 2015 Annual Report

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We write personal auto and other specialty property-casualty insurance and provide related services throughout the United States. Our Personal Lines segment writes insurance for personal autos and recreational vehicles. Our Commercial Lines segment writes primarily liability and physical damage insurance for automobiles and trucks owned and/or operated predominantly by small businesses in the business auto, for-hire transportation, contractor, for-hire specialty, tow, and for-hire livery markets. We distribute our Personal and Commercial Lines products through both the Agency and Direct channels.

Personal Lines

Our Personal Lines operating philosophy is to grow as fast as possible, subject to the constraints of our 96 combined ratio goal and our ability to provide excellent customer service. Through this lens, 2015 was another very good year for Personal Lines as net premiums written grew 6% at healthy profit margins, while building foundational elements of future growth through enhanced segmentation, broader product offerings, and restored growth in our Agency business.

Given the competitive U.S. personal lines property and casualty market, it’s critical that we consistently provide a broad suite of product offerings to meet the needs of both consumers and agents. During 2015, we made good progress making our products more competitive, broadening our offerings, and better matching our rates to the underlying consumer risks.

During 2015, we reduced our expense ratio and continued to deploy our latest auto product, which was first introduced in December 2014 and is currently available to more than one-third of U.S. households. This product leverages additional rating variables and external data in order to provide more competitive rates for preferred households, a redesigned package discount that encourages bundling property and auto, and better segmentation amongst no-prior-insurance and repeat customers. Market response has been excellent, with quote volume increases, conversion improvements for more preferred customers, and many agents quoting a greater share of their preferred customers with Progressive. A key element of this new product is our enhanced Snapshot® offering that provides immediate consumer value through an upfront participation discount. Segmentation is enhanced at renewal by confirmation of, or adjustments to, good driving discounts and surcharging a small segment of drivers based on their cost to insure. We saw increased use of our Snapshot program during 2015, as the new upfront discount contributed to higher purchase rates and broader discount distribution drove up overall customer retention. During the year, we also completed a successful pilot of a mobile app that can supplement Snapshot’s current hardware-based monitoring with a software version that can lower hardware costs and improve user experience, while also reducing monitoring costs through the elimination of our data transmission charges. This offering is expected to deploy more broadly in late 2016.

Beyond more competitive product offerings, we’ve been investing in both the breadth of the products we offer consumers and where we offer those products. During the year, we increased the number of agents selling our Progressive Home Advantage® (PHA) property offering from American Strategic Insurance (ASI) by 27%, expanded our offering across distribution channels by entering 5 additional Agency states with ASI homeowners and 19 additional states with Progressive renters, and adding 28 new states to our Progressive Advantage Agency, the in-house agency that sells property insurance direct to consumers. The acquisition of a controlling interest in the parent company of ASI in April now affords us the opportunity to participate in the agency bundled home/auto market in a way never before possible. In conjunction with ASI, we designed a bundled home/auto solution with both agent and consumer benefits never before available from Progressive and began deploying this “Platinum” offering to a select group of agents across several states. Market response has been strong, with volume increases in both quotes and sold policies, higher rates of home/auto bundling, and an overall shift to more preferred customers. Finally, in pursuit of becoming consumers’ destination for Personal Lines insurance, during 2015, we expanded our portfolio of Progressive Advantage products (underwritten by unaffiliated insurers and sold directly by Progressive) by launching travel insurance, wedding/event insurance, and expanding our classic car insurance offering.

As we communicated during our investor day in May, the competitive environment in the independent agency channel resulted in disappointing new application and policy in force declines during 2014, and turning those results around was a top priority for 2015. During the year, the combination of more competitive auto products, more broadly distributed and competitive property offerings, and active management by our field sales organization resulted in positive new policy growth and the restoration of overall policy in force growth for our Agency auto business. A 4% increase in written premium per policy resulted in net premiums written growth in our Agency auto business during the year.

Total Personal Lines growth in 2015 was driven by strong performance of our Direct auto business, which grew new applications close to 13%, added more than 400,000 policies, and increased net written premium 11% over 2014. Growth in the channel was primarily driven by mid-teen increases in the number of consumers shopping with Progressive, resulting from increased media spend and strong consumer response to our messages. From a channel perspective, the vast majority of this shopping increase was due to continued rapid growth of consumers shopping via mobile devices, which now represent about 40% of our Direct auto quotes. Recognizing these ongoing trends, during the year we completed the replacement of our Direct auto quoting systems to improve the mobile shopping experience.

Our special lines products (motorcycle, boat, recreational vehicle, and manufactured home) enjoyed very profitable growth across all products and continue to contribute both a substantial portion of our annual underwriting profit and a large book of preferred customers to whom we can cross-market our auto and expanding property offerings. Providing our multi-product customers a consistent customer experience across our product offerings is essential to building long-term confidence in Progressive, and as we complete the rebuild of our core auto policy processing system, we’ve commenced deployment of the same system to our special lines products.

Customer retention remains disappointing. Our trailing 12-month auto policy life expectancy declined by about 1%, driven primarily by our Agency business, while Direct retention remained essentially flat. During the year, we reorganized several groups within Personal Lines in order to focus additional resources on decomposing and resolving our customer retention challenges. On a brighter note, our more responsive trailing 3-month retention metrics do indicate improvements in the 5% range for auto customers in both distribution channels, so we have some evidence that things are moving in the right direction.

On top of strong business results during the year, we feel very good about the Destination Era investments we made in people, products, and systems to ensure we continue to offer broad distribution of the suite of highly competitive products, which are essential to meeting our customers’ needs throughout their lifetimes.

Personal Lines

2015 2014 Change
Net premiums written (in billions) $ 17.7 $ 16.8 6%
Net premiums earned (in billions) $ 17.3 $ 16.6 4%
Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio 73.7   73.4 0.3 pts.
Underwriting expense ratio 19.8   19.9 (0.1) pts.
Combined ratio 93.5   93.3 0.2 pts.
Policies in force (in thousands) 13,764.7   13,261.9 4%

Commercial Lines

2015 2014 Change
Net premiums written (in billions) $ 2.2 $ 1.9 15%
Net premiums earned (in billions) $ 2.0 $ 1.8 9%
Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio 62.4   61.7 0.7 pts.
Underwriting expense ratio 21.7   21.1 0.6 pts.
Combined ratio 84.1   82.8 1.3 pts.
Policies in force (in thousands) 555.8   514.7 8%

Commercial Lines

The Commercial Lines business built on the positive momentum and strong underwriting results of the previous year to reach new highs for written premiums, policies in force, market position, and earnings contribution in 2015. These results, and our optimism about the future of Commercial Lines, are grounded in adherence to the basic operating principles we have embraced for several years: intense focus on commercial auto as our core product; understanding loss cost and other expense drivers at the Business Market Target (BMT) level; measured expansion into new business segments; and delivering products and services that provide an ease-of-use advantage for our agents and customers. Competitive market conditions and macroeconomic influences will always be variable, and our exploration of new growth opportunities will require new disciplines. However, we expect these tenets to be unchanging as we pursue growth well into the future.

Commercial Lines written premium increased 15% over 2014 to $2.2 billion on the strength of broad-based policy growth and a shift to higher average premium policies. The fact that year-over-year policy growth ranged from solid to exceptional across all five of our primary BMTs speaks to the underlying strength of the business and the acceptance of Progressive as a favored commercial auto insurance solution for small businesses. Based on trailing 12-month industry results through third quarter 2015, we expect to become the U.S. commercial auto market share leader when final 2015 industry results are published. While never an explicitly stated business objective, #1 is a mantle we will embrace and use as inspiration going forward.

The Commercial Lines combined ratio was 84, an increase of a little more than a point from the prior year, and a number that benefited from approximately 3 points of favorable prior year loss development. Much like growth in policies and premium, margins were strong across all BMTs. While we expect margins will move closer to our long-term targets, we enter 2016 without any identifiable rate deficiencies and able to capitalize on the strong demand we are experiencing and some interesting new opportunities.

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For-Hire Transportation (FHT) has been an area of significant investment and focus for the last several years. In 2015, we began deployment of a new scoring model for all businesses registered with the U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT). While the score applies to any business with a USDOT number, the most immediate impact is on the FHT BMT. The new model provides a meaningful price segmentation benefit, while it reduces our dependence on post-binding audit and intervention; it’s an ease-of-use enhancement that is being embraced by agents. Early results are encouraging, as we are realizing conversion improvements on the preferred business and are earning more premium on the higher-cost accounts. As the rollout continues, research is well underway on score enhancements specifically addressing additional segmentation opportunities with businesses registered as Federal Motor Carriers.

Progressive is the recognized leader in usage-based insurance (UBI) with our Snapshot® program for personal auto. For a few years we have been working with customers in our truck-oriented BMTs to collect driving data through telematics devices. We now have several million miles and over a billion data records to match with actual loss experience. These data reveal interesting insights on driver behavior, vehicle use, route patterns, and driving location and suggest predictive power beyond any currently used rating variables. The recently enacted Federal mandate for all trucking operations currently maintaining hours of service logs to install an operational electronic logging device by December 2017 should remove a major obstacle to UBI adoption—getting customers to install a device capable of recording telematics information. We now have a running start on delivering a best-in-class UBI product for non-fleet owner operators in advance of the Federal mandate.

In 2014, we decided on a multi-year effort to replace our core Commercial Lines processing system with the anticipated benefits of lowering our operating costs, increasing our business dexterity and speed to market, and reinforcing our ease-of-use advantage with agents and customers. 2015 was the first full year of effort in what we expect will be a four-year program to complete full product and state deployment. The demands of a program of this magnitude at a time when the business is growing rapidly tested the full capacity of our systems, services and, most especially, our people who responded remarkably throughout. Great progress was made, running on time and under budget, and we anticipate the completion of core systems integration and the elevation of the first state on the new system this year. That state will be Hawaii, which will effectively complete the U.S. state map for Commercial Lines.

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