The Estee Lauder Companies Inc. 2009 Annual Report

MANAGEMENT'S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS OF
FINANCIAL CONDITION AND RESULTS OF OPERATIONS

CRITICAL ACCOUNTING POLICIES AND ESTIMATES
The discussion and analysis of our financial condition at June 30, 2009 and our results of operations for the three fiscal years ended June 30, 2009 are based upon our consolidated financial statements, which have been prepared in conformity with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles. The preparation of these financial statements requires us to make estimates and assumptions that affect the reported amounts of assets, liabilities, revenues and expenses reported in those financial statements. These judgments can be subjective and complex and, consequently, actual results could differ from those estimates. Our most critical accounting policies relate to revenue recognition, inventory, pension and other post-retirement benefit costs, goodwill and other indefinite-lived intangible assets, income taxes and derivatives.

Management of the Company has discussed the selection of significant accounting policies and the effect of estimates with the Audit Committee of the Company's Board of Directors.

REVENUE RECOGNITION
Revenues from merchandise sales are recognized upon transfer of ownership, including passage of title to the customer and transfer of the risk of loss related to those goods. In the Americas region, sales are generally recognized at the time the product is shipped to the customer and in the Europe, Middle East & Africa and Asia/Pacific regions sales are generally recognized based upon the customer's receipt. In certain circumstances, transfer of title takes place at the point of sale, for example, at our retail stores. Sales at our retail stores and online are recognized in accordance with a traditional 4-4-5 retail calendar, where each fiscal quarter is comprised of two 4-week periods and one 5-week period, with one extra week in one quarter every seven years. As a result, the retail quarter-end and the fiscal quarter-end may be different by up to six days.

Revenues are reported on a net sales basis, which is computed by deducting from gross sales the amount of actual product returns received, discounts, incentive arrangements with retailers and an amount established for anticipated product returns. Our practice is to accept product returns from retailers only if properly requested, authorized and approved. In accepting returns, we typically provide a credit to the retailer against accounts receivable from that retailer. As a percentage of gross sales, returns were 4.4%, 4.4% and 4.2% in fiscal 2009, 2008 and 2007, respectively.

Our sales return accrual is a subjective critical estimate that has a direct impact on reported net sales. This accrual is calculated based on a history of actual returns, estimated future returns and information provided by authorized retailers regarding their inventory levels. Consideration of these factors results in an accrual for anticipated sales returns that reflects increases or decreases related to seasonal fluctuations. Experience has shown a relationship between retailer inventory levels and sales returns in the subsequent period, as well as a consistent pattern of returns due to the seasonal nature of our business. In addition, as necessary, specific accruals may be established for significant future known or anticipated events. The types of known or anticipated events that we have considered, and will continue to consider, include, but are not limited to, the financial condition of our customers, store closings by retailers, changes in the retail environment and our decision to continue or support new and existing products.

In the ordinary course of business, we have established an allowance for doubtful accounts and customer deductions based upon the evaluation of accounts receivable aging, specific exposures and historical trends. Our allowance for doubtful accounts and customer deductions is a subjective critical estimate that has a direct impact on reported net earnings. The allowance for doubtful accounts was $41.4 million and $26.3 million as of June 30, 2009 and 2008, respectively. The allowance for doubtful accounts was reduced by $14.1 million, $10.2 million and $18.2 million for customer deductions and write-offs in fiscal 2009, 2008 and 2007, respectively, and increased by $29.2 million, $13.2 million and $14.4 million for additional provisions in fiscal 2009, 2008 and 2007, respectively.

INVENTORY
We state our inventory at the lower of cost or fair market value, with cost being determined on the first-in, first-out (FIFO) method. We believe FIFO most closely matches the flow of our products from manufacture through sale. The reported net value of our inventory includes saleable products, promotional products, raw materials and componentry and work in process that will be sold or used in future periods. Inventory cost includes raw materials, direct labor and overhead, as well as inbound freight. Manufacturing overhead is allocated to the cost of inventory based on the normal production capacity. Unallocated overhead during periods of abnormally low production levels are recognized as cost of sales in the period in which they are incurred.

We also record an inventory obsolescence reserve, which represents the difference between the cost of the inventory and its estimated realizable value, based on various product sales projections. This reserve is calculated using an estimated obsolescence percentage applied to the inventory based on age, historical trends and requirements to support forecasted sales. In addition, and as necessary, we may establish specific reserves for future known or anticipated events.

PENSION AND OTHER POST-RETIREMENT BENEFIT COSTS
We offer the following benefits to some or all of our employees: a domestic trust-based noncontributory qualified defined benefit pension plan ("U.S. Qualified Plan") and an unfunded, non-qualified domestic noncontributory pension plan to provide benefits in excess of statutory limitations (collectively with the U.S. Qualified Plan, the "Domestic Plans"); a domestic contributory defined contribution plan; international pension plans, which vary by country, consisting of both defined benefit and defined contribution pension plans; deferred compensation arrangements; and certain other post-retirement benefit plans.

The amounts needed to fund future payouts under these plans are subject to numerous assumptions and variables. Certain significant variables require us to make assumptions that are within our control such as an anticipated discount rate, expected rate of return on plan assets and future compensation levels. We evaluate these assumptions with our actuarial advisors and select assumptions that we believe reflect the economics underlying our pension and post-retirement obligations. While we believe these assumptions are within accepted industry ranges, an increase or decrease in the assumptions or economic events outside our control could have a direct impact on reported net earnings.

The discount rate for each plan used for determining future net periodic benefit cost is based on a review of highly rated long-term bonds. For fiscal 2009, we used a discount rate for our Domestic Plans of 6.75% and varying rates on our international plans of between 2.00% and 9.00%. The discount rate for our Domestic Plans is based on a bond portfolio that includes only long-term bonds with an Aa rating, or equivalent, from a major rating agency. We believe the timing and amount of cash flows related to the bonds included in this portfolio is expected to match the estimated defined benefit payment streams of our Domestic Plans. For fiscal 2009, we used an expected return on plan assets of 7.75% for our U.S. Qualified Plan and varying rates of between 3.25% and 9.00% for our international plans. In determining the long-term rate of return for a plan, we consider the historical rates of return, the nature of the plan's investments and an expectation for the plan's investment strategies. The U.S. Qualified Plan asset allocation as of June 30, 2009 was approximately 32% equity investments, 51% debt securities and 17% other investments. The asset allocation of our combined international plans as of June 30, 2009 was approximately 19% equity investments, 59% debt securities and 22% other investments. The difference between actual and expected return on plan assets is reported as a component of accumulated other comprehensive income. Those gains/losses that are subject to amortization over future periods will be recognized as a component of the net periodic benefit cost in such future periods. For fiscal 2009, our pension plans had actual negative return on assets of $60.5 million as compared with expected return on assets of $52.2 million, which resulted in a net deferred loss of $112.7 million, of which approximately $48 million is currently subject to be amortized over periods ranging from approximately 4 to 22 years. The actual negative return on assets was primarily related to the performance of equity markets during the past fiscal year.

A 25 basis-point change in the discount rate or the expected rate of return on plan assets would have had the following effect on fiscal 2009 pension expense:

Our post-retirement plans are comprised of health care plans that could be impacted by health care cost trend rates, which may have a significant effect on the amounts reported. A one-percentage-point change in assumed health care cost trend rates for fiscal 2009 would have had the following effects:

For fiscal 2010, we are using a discount rate for the Domestic Plans of 6.50% and varying rates for our international plans of between 1.75% and 8.75%. We are using an expected return on plan assets of 7.75% for the U.S. Qualified Plan and varying rates for our international pension plans of between 2.75% and 8.75%. The net change in these assumptions from those used in fiscal 2009 will result in an increase in pension expense of approximately $1.5 million in fiscal 2010. We will continue to monitor the market conditions relative to these assumptions and adjust them accordingly.