Guidance
2011 financial year and three year guidance
| 2010 actual performance £bn | 2011 guidance £bn | Three year guidance £bn |
|
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted operating profit | 11.5 | 11.2 – 12.0 | n/a |
| Free cash flow | 7.2 | In excess of 6.5 |
6.0 – 7.0 |
2011 financial year
We expect the Group to return to low levels of organic revenue growth during the 2011 financial year although this will be dependent upon the strength of the economic environment and the level of unemployment within Europe. In contrast revenue growth in emerging economies, in particular India and Africa, is expected to continue as the Group drives penetration and data in these markets.
EBITDA margins are expected to decline but at a significantly lower rate than that experienced in the previous year. Adjusted operating profit is expected to be in the range of £11.2 billion to £12.0 billion. Total depreciation and amortisation charges are expected to be slightly higher than the prior year, before the impact of licence and spectrum purchases, if any, during the 2011 financial year.
Free cash flow is expected to be in excess of £6.5 billion reflecting a continued but lower level of benefit from the working capital improvement programme launched in the 2010 financial year. We intend to maintain capital expenditure at a similar level to last year, adjusted for foreign exchange, ensuring that we continue to invest in high speed data networks, enhancing our customer experience and increasing the attractiveness of the Group’s data services.
The adjusted tax rate percentage is expected to be in the mid 20s for the 2011 financial year with the Group targeting a similar level in the medium-term. The Group continues to seek resolution of the UK Controlled Foreign Company and India tax cases.
Three year free cash flow and dividend per share growth target
We expect that annual free cash flow will be between £6.0 billion and £7.0 billion, in each of the financial years in the period ending 31 March 2013, underpinning a dividend per share growth target of at least 7% per annum for each of these financial years. We therefore expect that total dividends per share will be no less than 10.18p for the 2013 financial year.
Assumptions
Guidance is based on our current assessment of the global economic outlook and assumes foreign exchange rates of £1:€1.15 and £1:US$1.50 throughout this three year period. It excludes the impact of licence and spectrum purchases, if any, material one-off tax settlements and restructuring costs and assumes no material change to the current structure of the Group.
With respect to the dividend growth target, as the Group’s free cash flow is predominantly generated by companies operating within the euro currency zone, we have assumed that the euro to sterling rate remains within 10% of the above guidance exchange rate.
A 1% change in the euro to sterling exchange rate would impact adjusted operating profit by approximately £70 million and free cash flow by approximately £60 million.
2010 financial year
| Adjusted operating profit £bn | Free cash flow £bn |
|
|---|---|---|
| Guidance – May 2009(1) | 11.0 – 11.8 | 6.0 – 6.5 |
| Guidance – February 2010(1) | 11.4 – 11.8 | 6.5 – 7.0 |
| 2010 actual performance | 11.5 | 7.2 |
| Foreign exchange | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| Alltel restructuring costs(2) | 0.2 | – |
| 2010 performance on guidance basis | 11.9 | 7.3 |
- Notes:
- (1)
- The Group’s guidance reflected assumptions for average for exchange rates for the 2010 financial year of approximately £1:€1.12 and £1:US$1.50. Actual exchange rates were £1:€1.13 and £1:US$1.60.
- (2)
- The Group’s guidance did not include the impact of reorganisation costs arising from the Alltel acquisition by Verizon Wireless.
© Copyright Vodafone 2010
