Principal risk factors and uncertainties
The following discussion of principal risk factors and uncertainties identifies the most significant risks that may adversely affect our business, operations, liquidity, financial position or future performance. Additional risks not presently known to us, or that we currently deem immaterial, may also impact our business. This section should be carefully read in conjunction with the “Forward-looking statements”.
Adverse macroeconomic conditions in the markets in which we operate could impact our results of operations.
Adverse macroeconomic conditions and deterioration in the global economic environment, such as further economic slowdown in the markets in which we operate, may lead to a reduction in the level of demand from our customers for existing and new products and services. In difficult economic conditions, consumers may seek to reduce discretionary spending by reducing their use of our products and services, including data services, or by switching to lower-cost alternatives offered by our competitors. Similarly, under these conditions the enterprise customers that we serve may delay purchasing decisions, delay full implementation of service offerings or reduce their use of our services. In addition adverse economic conditions may lead to an increased number of our consumer and enterprise customers that are unable to pay for existing or additional services. If these events were to occur it could have a material adverse effect on our results of operations.
The continued volatility of worldwide financial markets may make it more difficult for us to raise capital externally which could have a negative impact on our access to finance.
Our key sources of liquidity in the foreseeable future are likely to be cash generated from operations and borrowings through long-term and short-term issuances in the capital markets as well as committed bank facilities. Due to the recent volatility experienced in capital and credit markets around the world, new issuances of debt securities may experience decreased demand. Adverse changes in credit markets or our credit ratings could increase the cost of borrowing and banks may be unwilling to renew credit facilities on existing terms. Any of these factors could have a negative impact on our access to finance.
Regulatory decisions and changes in the regulatory environment could adversely affect our business.
As we have ventures in a large number of geographic areas, we must comply with an extensive range of requirements that regulate and supervise the licensing, construction and operation of our telecommunications networks and services. In particular, there are agencies which regulate and supervise the allocation of frequency spectrum and which monitor and enforce regulation and competition laws, which apply to the mobile telecommunications industry. Decisions by regulators regarding the granting, amendment or renewal of licences, to us or to third parties, could adversely affect our future operations in these geographic areas. In addition, other changes in the regulatory environment concerning the use of mobile phones may lead to a reduction in the usage of mobile phones or otherwise adversely affect us. Additionally, decisions by regulators and new legislation, such as those relating to international roaming charges and call termination rates, could affect the pricing for, or adversely affect the revenue from, the services we offer. Further details on the regulatory framework in certain countries and regions in which we operate, and on regulatory proceedings, can be found in “Regulation”.
Increased competition may reduce our market share and revenue.
We face intensifying competition and our ability to compete effectively will depend on, among other things, our network quality, capacity and coverage, pricing of services and equipment, quality of customer service, development of new and enhanced products and services in response to customer demands and changing technology, reach and quality of sales and distribution channels and capital resources. Competition could lead to a reduction in the rate at which we add new customers, a decrease in the size of our market share and a decline in our ARPU as customers choose to receive telecommunications services or other competing services from other providers. Examples include but are not limited to competition from internet based services and MVNOs.
The focus of competition in many of our markets continues to shift from customer acquisition to customer retention as the market for mobile telecommunications has become increasingly penetrated. Customer deactivations are measured by our churn rate. There can be no assurance that we will not experience increases in churn rates, particularly as competition intensifies. An increase in churn rates could adversely affect profitability because we would experience lower revenue and additional selling costs to replace customers or recapture lost revenue.
Increased competition has also led to declines in the prices we charge for our mobile services and is expected to lead to further price declines in the future. Competition could also lead to an increase in the level at which we must provide subsidies for handsets. Additionally, we could face increased competition should there be an award of additional licences in jurisdictions in which a member of our Group already has a licence.
Delays in the development of handsets and network compatibility and components may hinder the deployment of new technologies.
Our operations depend in part upon the successful deployment of continuously evolving telecommunications technologies. We use technologies from a number of vendors and make significant capital expenditure in connection with the deployment of such technologies. There can be no assurance that common standards and specifications will be achieved, that there will be inter-operability across Group and other networks, that technologies will be developed according to anticipated schedules, that they will perform according to expectations or that they will achieve commercial acceptance. The introduction of software and other network components may also be delayed. The failure of vendor performance or technology performance to meet our expectations or the failure of a technology to achieve commercial acceptance could result in additional capital expenditure by us or a reduction in our profitability.
We may experience a decline in revenue or profitability notwithstanding our efforts to increase revenue from the introduction of new services.
As part of our strategy we will continue to offer new services to our existing customers and seek to increase non-voice service revenue as a percentage of total service revenue. However we may not be able to introduce these new services commercially or may experience significant delays due to problems such as the availability of new mobile handsets, higher than anticipated prices of new handsets or availability of new content services. In addition, even if these services are introduced in accordance with expected time schedules, there is no assurance that revenue from such services will increase ARPU or maintain profit margins.
Expected benefits from our cost reduction initiatives may not be realised.
We have entered into several cost reduction initiatives principally relating to network sharing, the outsourcing of IT application, development and maintenance, data centre consolidation, supply chain management and a business transformation programme to implement a single, integrated operating model using one ERP system. However there is no assurance that the full extent of the anticipated benefits will be realised in the timeline envisaged.
Changes in assumptions underlying the carrying value of certain Group assets could result in impairment.
We complete a review of the carrying value of Group assets annually, or more frequently where the circumstances require, to assess whether those carrying values can be supported by the net present value of future cash flows derived from such assets. This review examines the continued appropriateness of the assumptions in respect of highly uncertain matters upon which the valuations supporting carrying values of certain Group assets are based. This includes an assessment of discount rates and long-term growth rates, future technological developments and timing and quantum of future capital expenditure as well as several factors which may affect revenue and profitability identified within the other risk factors in this section such as intensifying competition, pricing pressures, regulatory changes and the timing for introducing new products or services. Discount rates are in part derived from yields on government bonds, the level of which may change substantially period to period and which may be affected by political, economic and legal developments which are beyond our control. Due to our substantial carrying value of goodwill under International Financial Reporting Standards, the revision of any of these assumptions to reflect current or anticipated changes in operations or the financial condition of the Group could lead to an impairment in the carrying value of certain Group assets. While impairment does not impact reported cash flows, it does result in a non-cash charge in the consolidated income statement and thus no assurance can be given that any future impairments would not affect our reported distributable reserves and therefore our ability to make distributions to our shareholders or repurchase our shares. See “Critical accounting estimates” and note 10 to the consolidated financial statements.
Our global footprint may present exposure to unpredictable economic, political, regulatory and legal risks.
Political, regulatory, economic and legal systems in emerging markets may be less predictable than in countries with more developed institutional structures. Since we operate in and are exposed to emerging markets, the value of our investments in these markets may be adversely affected by political, regulatory, economic and legal developments which are beyond our control and anticipated benefits resulting from acquisitions and other investments we have made in these markets may not be achieved in the time expected or at all.
Our strategic objectives may be impeded by the fact that we do not have a controlling interest in some of our ventures.
Some of our interests in mobile licences are held through entities in which we are a significant but not a controlling owner. Under the governing documents for some of these partnerships and corporations, certain key matters such as the approval of business plans and decisions as to the timing and amount of cash distributions require the consent of our partners. In others these matters may be approved without our consent. We may enter into similar arrangements as we participate in ventures formed to pursue additional opportunities. Although we have not been materially constrained by the nature of our mobile ownership interests, no assurance can be given that our partners will not exercise their power of veto or their controlling influence in any of our ventures in a way that will hinder our corporate objectives and reduce any anticipated cost savings or revenue enhancement resulting from these ventures.
Expected benefits from investment in networks, licences and new technology may not be realised.
We have made substantial investments in the acquisition of licences and in our mobile networks, including the roll out of 3G networks. We expect to continue to make significant investments in our mobile networks due to increased usage and the need to offer new services and greater functionality afforded by new or evolving telecommunications technologies. Accordingly, the rate of our capital expenditures in future years could remain high or exceed that which we have experienced to date.
There can be no assurance that the introduction of new services will proceed according to anticipated schedules or that the level of demand for new services will justify the cost of setting up and providing new services. Failure or a delay in the completion of networks and the launch of new services, or increases in the associated costs, could have a material adverse effect on our operations.
Our business and our ability to retain customers and attract new customers may be impaired by actual or perceived health risks associated with the transmission of radio waves from mobile telephones, transmitters and associated equipment.
Concerns have been expressed in some countries where we operate that the electromagnetic signals emitted by mobile telephone handsets and base stations may pose health risks at exposure levels below existing guideline levels and may interfere with the operation of electronic equipment. In addition, as described under the heading “Legal proceedings in note 29” to the consolidated financial statements, several mobile industry participants including Verizon Wireless and ourselves have had lawsuits filed against us alleging various health consequences as a result of mobile phone usage including brain cancer. While we are not aware that such health risks have been substantiated, there can be no assurance that the actual or perceived risks associated with radio wave transmission will not impair our ability to retain customers and attract new customers, reduce mobile telecommunications usage or result in further litigation. In such event, because of our strategic focus on mobile telecommunications, our business and results of operations may be more adversely affected than those of other companies in the telecommunications sector.
Our business would be adversely affected by the non-supply of equipment and support services by a major supplier.
Companies within the Group source network infrastructure and other equipment, as well as network-related and other significant support services, from third party suppliers. The withdrawal or removal from the market of one or more of these major third party suppliers could adversely affect our operations and could require us to make additional capital or operational expenditures.
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