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2006 Annual Report

 

Interest Rate Risk Management for Nontrading Activities

Interest rate risk represents the most significant market risk exposure to our nontrading exposures. Our overall goal is to manage interest rate risk so that movements in interest rates do not adversely affect core net interest income — managed basis. Interest rate risk is measured as the potential volatility in our core net interest income — managed basis caused by changes in market interest rates. Client facing activities, primarily lending and deposit-taking, create interest rate sensitive positions on our balance sheet. Interest rate risk from these activities, as well as the impact of changing market conditions, is managed through our ALM activities.

Simulations are used to estimate the impact on core net interest income — managed basis using numerous interest rate scenarios, balance sheet trends and strategies. These simulations evaluate how the above mentioned scenarios impact core net interest income — managed basis on short-term financial instruments, debt securities, loans, deposits, borrowings and derivative instruments. In addition, these simulations incorporate assumptions about balance sheet dynamics such as loan and deposit growth and pricing, changes in funding mix, and asset and liability repricing and maturity characteristics.

The Balance Sheet Management group analyzes core net interest income — managed basis forecasts utilizing different rate scenarios, with the base case utilizing forward interest rates. The Balance Sheet Management group frequently updates the core net interest income — managed basis forecast for changing assumptions and differing outlooks based on economic trends and market conditions. Thus, we continually monitor our balance sheet position in an effort to maintain an acceptable level of exposure to interest rate changes.

We prepare forward-looking forecasts of core net interest income — managed basis. These baseline forecasts take into consideration expected future business growth, ALM positioning, and the direction of interest rate movements as implied by forward interest rates. We then measure and evaluate the impact that alternative interest rate scenarios have to these baseline forecasts in order to assess interest rate sensitivity under varied conditions. The spot and 12-month forward monthly average rates used in our respective baseline forecasts at December 31, 2006 and 2005 were as follows:

Table 29 Forward Rates
  December 31
2006 2005
Federal
Funds
Ten-Year
Swap
Federal
Funds
Ten-Year
Swap
Spot rates 5.25
%
5.18
%
4.25
%
4.94
%
12-month forward average rates 4.85
%
5.19
%
4.75
%
4.97
%

The following table reflects the pre-tax dollar impact to forecasted core net interest income — managed basis over the next twelve months from December 31, 2006 and 2005, resulting from a 100 bp gradual parallel increase, a 100 bp gradual parallel decrease, a 100 bp gradual curve flattening (increase in short-term rates or decrease in long-term rates) and a 100 bp gradual curve steepening (decrease in short-term rates or increase in long-term rates) from the forward market curve. For further discussion of core net interest income — managed basis see the Supplemental Financial Data section.

Table 30 Estimated Core Net Interest Income — Managed Basis at Risk
(Dollars in millions) December 31
Curve Change Short Rate Long Rate 2006 2005
+100 Parallel shift +100 +100
$
(557)
$
(357)
-100 Parallel shift -100 -100 770 244
Flatteners
Short end +100 (687) (523)
Long end -100 (192) (298)
Steepeners
Short end -100 971 536
Long end +100 138 168

The sensitivity analysis above assumes that we take no action in response to these rate shifts over the indicated years. The estimated exposure is reported on a managed basis and reflects impacts that may be realized primarily in Net Interest Income and Card Income. This sensitivity analysis excludes any impact that could occur in the valuation of retained interests in the Corporation's securitizations due to changes in interest rate levels. See Note 9 of the Consolidated Financial Statements for additional information on Securitizations.

Beyond what is already implied in the forward market curve, the interest rate risk position has become modestly more exposed to rising rates since December 31, 2005. This exposure is primarily driven by the addition of MBNA. Conversely, over a 12-month horizon, we would benefit from falling rates or a steepening of the yield curve beyond what is already implied in the forward market curve.

As part of our ALM activities, we use securities, residential mortgages, and interest rate and foreign exchange derivatives in managing interest rate sensitivity.

Securities

The securities portfolio is an integral part of our ALM position. During the third quarter of 2006, we made a strategic shift in our balance sheet composition strategy to reduce the level of mortgage-backed securities and thereby reduce the level of investments in debt securities relative to loans. Accordingly, management targeted a reduction of mortgage-backed debt securities of approximately $100 billion over the next couple of years in order to achieve a balance sheet composition that would be consistent with management's revised risk-reward profile. Management expects the total targeted reduction will result from the third quarter sale of $43.7 billion in mortgage-backed securities combined with expected maturities and paydowns of mortgage-backed securities over the next couple of years. For those securities that are in an unrealized loss position we have the intent and ability to hold these securities to recovery.

The securities portfolio also includes investments to a lesser extent in corporate, municipal and other investment grade debt securities. The strategic shift in the balance sheet composition strategy did not impact these holdings. For those securities that are in an unrealized loss position we have the intent and ability to hold these securities to recovery.

During 2006 and 2005, we purchased AFS debt securities of $40.9 billion and $204.5 billion, sold $55.1 billion and $133.4 billion, and had maturities and received paydowns of $22.4 billion and $39.5 billion. We realized $(443) million and $1.1 billion in Gains (Losses) on Sales of Debt Securities during 2006 and 2005. The value of our Accumulated OCI related to AFS debt securities increased (improved) by $131 million (pre-tax) during 2006 which was driven by the realized loss on the securities sale partially offset by an increase in interest rates.

Accumulated OCI includes $2.9 billion in after-tax losses at December 31, 2006, related to after-tax unrealized losses associated with our AFS securities portfolio, including $3.1 billion of after-tax unrealized losses related to AFS debt securities and $249 million of after-tax unrealized gains related to AFS equity securities. Total market value of the AFS debt securities was $192.8 billion at December 31, 2006, with a weighted average duration of 4.1 years and primarily relates to our mortgage-backed securities portfolio.

Changes to the Accumulated OCI amounts for the AFS securities portfolio going forward will be driven by further interest rate or price fluctuations, the collection of cash flows including prepayment and maturity activity, and the passage of time.

Residential Mortgage Portfolio

During 2006 and 2005, we purchased $42.3 billion and $32.0 billion of residential mortgages related to ALM activities and sold $11.0 billion and $10.1 billion. We added $51.9 billion and $18.3 billion of originated residential mortgages to the balance sheet for 2006 and 2005. Additionally, we received paydowns of $24.7 billion and $35.8 billion for 2006 and 2005. The ending balance at December 31, 2006 was $241.2 billion, compared to $182.6 billion at December 31, 2005.

Interest Rate and Foreign Exchange Derivative Contracts

Interest rate and foreign exchange derivative contracts are utilized in our ALM activities and serve as an efficient tool to mitigate our interest rate and foreign exchange risk. We use derivatives to hedge the changes in cash flows or changes in market values on our balance sheet due to interest rate and foreign exchange components. See Note 4 of the Consolidated Financial Statements for additional information on our hedging activities.

Our interest rate contracts are generally non-leveraged generic interest rate and foreign exchange basis swaps, options, futures and forwards. In addition, we use foreign exchange contracts, including cross-currency interest rate swaps and foreign currency forward contracts, to mitigate the foreign exchange risk associated with foreign currency-denominated assets and liabilities, as well as certain equity investments in foreign subsidiaries. Table 31 reflects the notional amounts, fair value, weighted average receive fixed and pay fixed rates, expected maturity, and estimated duration of our open ALM derivatives at December 31, 2006 and 2005.

The changes in our derivatives portfolio reflect actions taken for interest rate and foreign exchange rate risk management. The decisions to reposition our derivative portfolio are based upon the current assessment of economic and financial conditions including the interest rate environment, balance sheet composition and trends, and the relative mix of our cash and derivative positions. The notional amount of our net receive fixed swap position (including foreign exchange contracts) decreased $10.5 billion to $12.3 billion at December 31, 2006 compared to $22.8 billion at December 31, 2005. The decrease in the net receive fixed position is primarily due to terminations and maturities within the portfolio during the year. The notional amount of our foreign exchange basis swaps increased $14.1 billion to $31.9 billion at December 31, 2006 compared to $17.8 billion at December 31, 2005. The notional amount of our option position increased $186.0 billion to $243.3 billion at December 31, 2006, compared to December 31, 2005. The increase in the notional amount of options was due to the addition of caps used to reduce the sensitivity of Net Interest Income to changes in market interest rates. Futures and forward rate contracts are comprised primarily of $8.5 billion of forward purchase contracts of mortgage loans at December 31, 2006 and $35.0 billion of forward purchase contracts of mortgage-backed securities and mortgage loans at December 31, 2005. The forward purchase contracts outstanding at December 31, 2006, settled in January 2007 with an average yield of 5.67 percent. The forward purchase contracts outstanding at December 31, 2005, settled from January 2006 to April 2006, with an average yield of 5.46 percent.

The following table includes derivatives utilized in our ALM activities, including those designated as SFAS 133 accounting hedges and those used as economic hedges. The fair value of net ALM contracts increased from a loss of $386 million at December 31, 2005 to a gain of $1.5 billion at December 31, 2006. The increase was primarily attributable to gains from changes in the value of foreign exchange basis swaps of $2.6 billion and receive fixed and pay fixed interest rate swaps of $1.3 billion, partially offset by losses from changes in the values of foreign exchange contracts of $1.2 billion, and option products of $1.0 billion. The increase in the value of foreign exchange basis swaps was due to the strengthening of most foreign currencies against the dollar during 2006. The increases in the value of receive fixed interest rate swaps was due to terminations partially offset by losses as a result of increases in market interest rates. The increase in the value of pay fixed interest rate swaps was due to gains from increases in market interest rates partially offset by terminations. The decrease in the value of foreign exchange contracts was due primarily to increases in foreign interest rates during 2006. The decrease in the value of option products was primarily due to changes in the composition of the option portfolio.

Table 31 Asset and Liability Management Interest Rate and Foreign Exchange Contracts
December 31, 2006
  Expected Maturity
(Dollars in millions, average estimated duration in years) Fair
Value
Total 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Thereafter Average
Estimated
Duration
Receive fixed interest
rate swaps (1)
$
(748)
              4.42
Notional amount  
$
91,502
$
2,795
$
7,844
$
48,900
$
3,252
$
1,630
$
27,081
 
Weighted average
fixed rate
  4.90
%
4.80
%
4.41
%
4.90
%
4.35
%
4.50
%
5.14
%
 
Pay fixed interest
rate swaps (1)
261               2.93
Notional amount  
$
100,217
$
15,000
$
2,500
$
44,000
$
$
250
$
38,467
 
Weighted average
fixed rate
  4.98
%
5.12
%
5.11
%
4.86
%
%
5.43
%
5.06
%
 
Foreign exchange
basis swaps (2)
1,992                
Notional amount  
$
31,916
$
174
$
2,292
$
3,012
$
5,351
$
3,962
$
17,125
 
Option products (3) 317                
Notional amount   243,280 200,000 43,176 70 34  
Foreign exchange
contracts (4)
(319)                
Notional
amount (5)
  20,319 (753) 1,588 1,901 3,850 1,104 12,629  
Futures and forward
rate contracts (6)
(46)                
Notional
amount (5)
  8,480 8,480  
Net ALM contracts
$
1,457
               
December 31, 2005
  Expected Maturity
(Dollars in millions, average estimated duration in years) Fair
Value
Total 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Thereafter Average
Estimated
Duration
Receive fixed interest
rate swaps (1)
$
(1,390)
              4.17
Notional amount  
$
108,985
$
4,337
$
13,080
$
6,144
$
39,107
$
10,387
$
35,930
 
Weighted average
fixed rate
  4.62
%
4.75
%
4.66
%
4.02
%
4.51
%
4.43
%
4.77
%
 
Pay fixed interest
rate swaps (1)
(408)               3.85
Notional amount  
$
102,281
$
5,100
$
55,925
$
10,152
$
$
$
31,104
 
Weighted average
fixed rate
  4.61
%
3.23
%
4.46
%
4.24
%
%
%
5.21
%
 
Foreign exchange
basis swaps (2)
(644)                
Notional amount  
$
17,806
$
514
$
174
$
884
$
2,839
$
3,094
$
10,301
 
Option products (3) 1,349                
Notional amount   57,246 57,246  
Foreign exchange
contracts (4)
909                
Notional
amount (5)
  16,061 1,335 51 1,436 1,826 3,485 7,928  
Futures and forward
rate contracts
(202)                
Notional
amount (5)
  34,716 34,716  
Net ALM contracts
$
(386)
               
Footnote (1) At December 31, 2006, $4.2 billion of the receive fixed and $52.5 billion of the pay fixed swap notional represented forward starting swaps that will not be effective until their respective contractual start dates. At December 31, 2005, $46.6 billion of the receive fixed swap notional and $41.9 billion of the pay fixed swap notional represented forward starting swaps that will not be effective until their respective contractual start dates.
Footnote (2) Foreign exchange basis swaps consist of cross-currency variable interest rate swaps used separately or in conjunction with receive fixed interest rate swaps.
Footnote (3) Option products include $225.1 billion in caps and $18.2 billion in swaptions at December 31, 2006. Amounts at December 31, 2005 totaled $5.0 billion in caps and $52.2 billion in swaptions.
Footnote (4) Foreign exchange contracts include foreign-denominated receive fixed interest rate swaps, cross-currency receive fixed interest rate swaps and foreign currency forward rate contracts. Total notional at December 31, 2006 was comprised of $21.0 billion in foreign-denominated and cross currency receive fixed swaps and $697 million in foreign currency forward rate contracts. At December 31, 2005, the notional balance consisted entirely of $16.1 billion in foreign-denominated and cross-currency fixed swaps.
Footnote (5) Reflects the net of long and short positions.
Footnote (6) At December 31, 2006, the position was comprised of $8.5 billion in forward purchase contracts that settled in January 2007.

The Corporation uses interest rate derivative instruments to hedge the variability in the cash flows of its assets and liabilities, and other forecasted transactions (cash flow hedges). The net losses on both open and closed derivative instruments recorded in Accumulated OCI net-of-tax at December 31, 2006 was $3.7 billion. These net losses are expected to be reclassified into earnings in the same period when the hedged cash flows affect earnings and will decrease income or increase expense on the respective hedged cash flows. Assuming no change in open cash flow derivative hedge positions and no changes to interest rates beyond what is implied in forward yield curves at December 31, 2006, the net losses are expected to be reclassified into earnings as follows: $1.0 billion (pre-tax), or 18 percent, within the next year, 58 percent within five years, 83 percent within 10 years, with the remaining 17 percent thereafter. For more information on derivatives designated as cash flow hedges, see Note 4 of the Consolidated Financial Statements.

The amount included in Accumulated OCI for terminated derivative contracts were losses of $3.2 billion and $2.5 billion, net-of-tax, at December 31, 2006 and 2005. The increase in losses can be attributable primarily to losses in the value of interest rate derivatives that were terminated during the year. Losses on these terminated derivative contracts are reclassified into earnings in the same period or periods during which the hedged forecasted transaction affects earnings.